Welcome to Friday members of the Fantasy Alarm family! This is a special Friday too as a long weekend awaits some of us with the 4th of July holiday landing on a Tuesday this year. That means drinks, grilled meats and pools are ahead and of course baseball on the TV for us all to watch and wager on. I know I love fireworks too but they aren't cheap so in this article we have some bets to better offset those costs and they include a home team Money Line and player prop, followed by a 1st 5 innings under bet and capped off with the Reds and Padres over the game total bet with hopefully tons of runs! Enjoy the summer holiday weekend everyone but don't stray too far as Howard Bender and I will be around all weekend to help you cash some bets!

  • Thursday's Record: 3-1 
  • Season Record: 34-24-1
  • Bankroll: +3.26 units
 

MLB Best Bets for June 30

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

The Minnesota Twins may be in first place in the AL Central but make no mistake this team has some serious problems and a series against the Orioles is going to be a problem for them. Baltimore comes into this matchup sitting at 48-31 and having scored 27 runs over their last 5 games. This is the usual for them too as they are 8th highest in the MLB with 4.91 runs scored per game and it doesn't look like Twins starter Pablo Lopez is going to stop them. Lopez is a great strikeout guy but in his 5 starts this month of June he has an ERA of 5.04 and has allowed 30 hits over 30.1 innings pitched. Giving up that kind of contact is going to sink the Twins tonight so I'll take the Orioles Money Line tonight. But, like a as seen on TV product there's more! I am also going to throw down the strikeout prop for Baltimore's Dean Kremer this evening as it sits at 5.5 and he has gone over this in 3 of the last 5 starts and no team in baseball strikeouts more than the Minnesota Twins. Same game parlay them if you want but both bets are value enough to play them straight up tonight. 

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Money Line (-110 on WynnBET)

Pick: Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145 on DraftKings)

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners 

Happy to be writing this article today and see that Shane McClanahan is back in action after his injury scare this week. That opens up a bet as well and that's a bet that has done very nicely for me this season so let's go back to it. The wager is the under in the 1st 5 innings and this is especially great when two very good starting pitchers go head to head because they are the driving force of the bet. McClanahan had a rocky start against the Royals last time out but he still allowed just 2 earned runs. On the season the Rays ace has allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start just 2 times out of 16 total starts. Yes, 2 times out of 16 starts, what a freak! That makes me think the Mariners at most will have 1-2 runs after 5 innings tonight but given their offensive woes, they may be shutout deep into the game. On the other end of the pitching matchup is Bryce Miller who has had a nice season going 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He's not a big strikeout guy but that's okay as in his last 3 starts his allowed just 11 hits and 5 earned runs total. If he can hold it down against the Rays early on then this bet cashes easy, let's see if he is up to the challenge, bet the under here. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays & Seattle Mariners Under 4.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings (-150 on PointsBet)

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds  

Things are getting down right silly out in southern Ohio these days as the Reds are scoring runs at will and it's time I jump on the wagon for the MLB Best Bets. Over their last 10 games they are averaging 6.7 runs per game and have hit the over in their game totals in 4 of their last 5 games. In a bigger sample size they have gone over in 58% of their games this season and that's the 3rd highest rate in the MLB. The only real equation in the total for today's game lies in the San Diego Padres as they are really streaky but I think a trip to Great American Small Park can remedy some of their issues. They will get to tee off against Graham Ashcraft to start with, who for the Reds this season holds a 7.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP which is not very good at all. They are also better just out of their own ball park as they average 4.66 runs per game on the road compared to just 3.83 at home. I think the lineup of Fernando Tatis Jr.. Jr.. Jr, Juan Soto and Manny Machado gets the job done tonight and the we all know the Reds offense will do their thing so give me the over in this game tonight. 

Pick: San Diego Padres & Cincinnati Reds Over 11 Runs (-105 On DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.