Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. The second-half of the 2023 MLB season is officially underway and what a weekend of games it was. Sunday alone saw eight teams score at least eight runs and Saturday we saw at least seven teams score nine or more, including that crazy Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros games that finished 13-12 in 10 innings. The batter props were crazy in that game and in several others. If you were doing a same game parlay for that using just the hitters, holy cow! We’re back to MLB betting today with a nice 10-game Monday slate that all starts late, but we’re going to try and attack some of these betting lines early before they tighten up too much.

  • Friday’s Record: 2-1
  • Season Record: 114-106-5
  • Bankroll: -5.15 units
 

MLB Best Bets for July 17

San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds

We’ve got two teams trending in opposite directions, so we’re going to ride in the direction the momentum is taking us. The Giants have won five in a row and six of their last seven after sweeping the Pirates on the road and now they head to Great American Smallpark to face Brandon Williamson and the Reds who have now lost four in a row and five of their last six. Neither team is lighting up the scoreboard since returning from the All-Star break as the Giants have a .275 wOBA with a .077 ISO while the Reds have a .172 wOBA and a .056 ISO. Cincinnati is also striking out 37.4-percent of the time since returning and the Giants 26.4-percent. So for me, this comes down to the pitching and Logan Webb of the Giants has the clear edge for me. He hasn’t thrown since his complete-game shutout against the Rockies on July 9 and he’s ready to go. Williamson, meanwhile, hasn’t thrown in a game since July 6 and his 1.35 WHIP still indicates pitching to a lot of contact. I’m tempted to go with the under for the game, but it is Great American so that’s just too dangerous. Instead, we’ll go with the hot hand for at least the first five innings.

Pick: San Francisco Giants 1st 5 inning -0.5 Run Line (-120 on BetMGM)

Pick: Logan Webb over 5.5 strikeouts (-150 on BetMGM)

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Can we find some decent action in the Battle of the Basement for the AL Central? I think we can. While neither Matt Manning nor Jordan Lyles are anything to write home about, each one is coming off a solid outing and looking to build some momentum off of it. Their offenses, on the other hand, have looked putrid all year and since coming back from the break, neither is particularly enticing. The Tigers are sporting a .272 with a 28.3-percent K-rate since returning from the break and the Royals, while playing slightly better, are still in the lower half of the league in run production over their last three games. We aren’t expecting big results from either starter but we also aren’t expecting a huge amount of offense early on either.

Pick: Tigers/Royals 1st 5 Innings Under 5.5 Runs (-125 on DK Sportsbook)

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees fan in me is going to prevent me from betting on them to win….or lose, for that matter. But, with the way Luis Severino has pitched and with the way the Angels have hit since returning from the All-Star break, I think I can find a way to make us all happy. Severino has allowed seven earned runs in each of his last two outings and that’s the third time he’s done that this season. Pre-All-Star break or not, 14 earned runs with three home runs allowed over 6.2 innings is brutal. On the other side, the Halos have averaged almost nine runs per game since returning from the break and have a .386 wOBA with a .231 ISO in that span. They’ve also homered in 15-straight games so you know where I’m going here.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4.5 runs (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)