MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for August 3
Welcome to Thursday Fantasy Alarm MLB bettors! This will be my first piece in the month of August after a few days off but the rest was much needed and it gave me more time to sit back and take in some MLB stats and trends that should pay huge dividends over the next 4 days with myself writing these articles. Not a full slate of action tonight but there are many games spread out throughout the day to get some bets in no doubt. Today's piece features some game totals, a strikeout prop and a batters prop and I love all of the action I have for today so let's just dive right into those wagers for today August 3rd!
- Sunday's Record: 3-1
- Season Record: 58-53-3
- Bankroll: -0.78 units
MLB Best Bets for August 3
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
The Wild Card race in the National League is heating up big time as the Giants sit in pole position and the Diamondbacks are just 1 game back right now! The story is different for each club though as the Dbacks have floundered in the past month and have lost 7 of their last 10 games while the Giants are surging, especially at home. They have done so with consistent pitching and bullpen work but today might be more of a struggle as they are going to send out an opener. Scott Alexander will give an inning and then who knows so Arizona and its offense of young stars could have an opening. On the other side Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks and he's had a rough go with a 8.20 ERA and WHIP of up to 1.63 right now. He has also allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts coming into today. All of this has me looking at the over in today's game as they projected run total given each teams numbers sits at 9.19 for the game at the line has been set at just 8 on some books. That's a pretty big edge to be getting and one I will be jumping on.
Pick: Diamondbacks & Giants Over 8 Runs (-140 on Caesars)
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Any time that Shohei Ohtani is pitching you have my attention. That is especially the case in must win games down the stretch and they are facing off against a divisional opponent in the Seattle Mariners. Now Ohtani has been allowing more runs than usual his last 4 starts with 14 over 25.1 innings but of those starts two came against the Astros and Padres so maybe we can cut him some slack on that. The Mariners are a much different team as they average just 4.53 runs per game and have a projected runs total of 4.39 on the road. They also strikeout often at 9.89 times per game so I smell a strikeout prop for the Angels ace today as his line sits at 7.5 for tonight. Ohtani has cleared this number in his last 2 starts and 11 times on the season making this bet firmly in play.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-145 on BetRivers)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
This will be the 4th game of this series tonight and all of the games leading up tonight have had some silly numbers. Through 3 games there have been a total of 63 runs scored and I don't really see that slowing down in the finale given the pitching matchup of the starters. Luke Weaver will go for the Reds with his 6.80 ERA and he will go up against Jameson Taillon and his 5.46 ERA. They may as well be sacrificial lambs for these offenses tonight as the Reds average 4.93 runs per game on the road and the Cubs average 5.36 runs per game at home. With the stats given we are going to see fireworks so the game total of 10 runs while it is a large number is just not set high enough. Let's add a player prop though too as we expect some big time runs! I am looking at Cody Bellinger tonight hitting from the cleanup spot tonight as he has crushed right handed pitching this season with a .301 batting average, 34 runs and 31 RBIs on the season. He has topped his number of 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs in his last 3 games and with this game looking like a scoring bonanza I am going to jump right in on this prop tonight.
Pick: Reds & Cubs Over 10 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
Pick: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
Dillon Dingler went 3-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night, helping to lead the Tigers to a come-from-behind 7-6 victory over the Twins in Minneapolis.
The Tigers were staring at a 4-1 deficit heading into the sixth inning but they made quick work of that with a pair of walks and three consecutive singles to start the frame, with Dingler’s RBI single tying the game at 4-4. He also led off the fifth inning with a single and scored his club’s first run on a throwing error by Matt Wallner. Dingler has been absolutely sizzling at the plate to open the season, slashing .387/.406/.677 with a pair of homers and eight RBI.
Colt Keith went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night as the Tigers triumphed over the Twins.
Keith played a role in the Tigers’ four-run rally in the sixth inning, reaching on an infield single to load the bases with nobody out. He then scored the tying run on Dillon Dingler’s RBI single. The 23-year-old infielder also drove in a valuable insurance run with a two-out RBI single off of Justin Topa in the seventh inning. With the two-hit attack, he’s now hitting .200/.385/.250 with zero home runs, two RBI and no stolen bases.
Tommy Kahnle snagged his second save of the season on Friday night, escaping the ninth inning with a one-run lead intact against the Twins.
Kahnle made things interesting by allowing a one-out single to Trevor Larnach and a two-out infield single to Edouard Julien. He then surrendered an RBI ground ball single to Ty France that trimmed the lead to one run before ralling to get Mickey Gasper on a ground ball to first to end it. Kahnle has allowed just one run through his first five innings on the season while registering a 5/0 K/BB ratio. While many have speculated that the Tigers’ bullpen will be full of chaos in 2025, it has been Kahnle that has emerged in a traditional closer’s role to open the season. He’s worth a look in any fantasy leagues where he may still be hanging around on the waiver wire.
Reese Olson struggled with his command in a no-decision against the Twins on Friday evening, allowing four runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Olson also issued three walks on the night while striking out three. He threw just 48 of his 90 pitches for strikes in the ballgame, which contributed to his early exit. The Twins scratched out a run against him in the second inning on an RBI single off the bat of Ty France, then broke the game open with three more in the fifth while chasing him. Olson got 10 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 23 percent. He’ll look to bounce back as he brings a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and a 13/8 K/BB ratio (15 innings) into Wednesday’s battle against the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Byron Buxton had a terrific night at the plate in Friday’s loss to the Tigers, going 1-for-4 with a solo homer, walk, three runs scored, two RBI and a stolen base.
Buxton worked Reese Olson for a leadoff walk to start the second inning then stole second base and raced around to score the game’s first run on an RBI single by Ty France. He then plated a run with a fielder’s choice in the fifth inning and scored on Edouard Julien’s RBI double. Buxton also clobbered a 394-foot (108.1 mph EV) solo shot off of Beau Brieske in the seventh that pulled the Twins to within a run at 6-5. Even with the strong night though, he’s hitting just .178/.229/.356 with two homers, six RBI and three stolen bases on the season.
David Festa pitched well in a no-decision against the Tigers in his season debut on Friday night, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Festa struck out four batters on the evening while allowing only one free pass. The only run that the Tigers scratched out against him came on a two-out single by Gleyber Torres on which Matt Wallner overthrew the third baseman allowing Dillon Dingler to score. The 25-year-old right-hander got nine whiffs on 64 pitches in the ballgame, registering a CSW of 28 percent. He’ll look to build off of this strong first start when he takes on the Braves in Atlanta on Friday.