Just one week into the 2023 MLB season and what a start it’s been for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks section here on Fantasy Alarm. I get that there is some serious temptation to start betting bigger or start playing around with same-game parlays because we’re up right now, but for me, it’s still a little too early in the season. Adjustments are being made, the MLB Weather Report is still a major factor and most starting pitchers are still looking for their second start of the season. As I’ve always said, you can do what you want. It’s your money. I’m going to stay the course a little longer and continue building my bankroll before I start taking chances on longer odds. 

  • Yesterday’s Record: 2-0
  • Season Record: 18-5
  • Bankroll: +10.44 units

We’ve got a nice split between some day and night games, but we’ve also got a lot of weather issues to keep an eye on. Here’s what looks good to me today.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 7

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

First game we’re going to attack due to the weather is in Flushing, Queens as yesterday’s game was postponed due to the forecast. Rain doesn’t seem to be an issue today, but we’re expecting cold temperatures with the wind blowing in. Neither offense has done much at all this season with both posting a team wOBA of under .275 against right-handed pitching. Both Edward Cabrera and Tylor Megill just squared off against each other on April 1 in a game the Mets won 6-2, but it was the bullpen that got roughed up by the Mets bats, not Cabrera. I expect the duel to continue today with the weather helping to stifle any late attempts at an offensive surge.

Pick: Mets/Marlins under 8 runs (-125 on DK Sportsbook)

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

Here’s another game in which we will see temperatures in the 40s and the wind blowing in from center, so we’re not expecting big power numbers at all. Sonny Gray, who tossed five scoreless frames against the Royals in his first start, will get the nod for the Twins home opener against an Astros team that hasn’t really found its power stroke just yet. They’ve posted just a .311 wOBA against righties thus far, but more important is the struggling .082 ISO. Target Field is spacious enough as it is, so between the weather and the lack of power production, the Astros aren’t likely to power up. The Twins are in a very similar spot, averaging just four runs per game this season with a .293 wOBA against righties. Jose Urquidy should be able to keep the ball in the yard given what this day looks like.

Pick: Astros/Twins Under 7.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

I spoke very highly of Zach Eflin’s move from Philadelphia to Tampa Bay and after watching him throughout the spring and them in his season-debut, I’m still hooked. OK, fine, his first start came against the lowly Tigers, but he showed tremendous command, allowing just three hits and one walk through five innings while striking out five. Are the A’s any better than the Tigers? Absolutely not. They’ve posted a .268 wOBA against righties thus far and have a 25.8-percent K-rate. Even if Eflin only goes five again, the Rays bullpen has been lights-out with a 1.64 ERA over 22 innings. As for the Rays bats? They’ve been middle-of-the-road against southpaws this season but have a .198 ISO against them, so Ken Waldichuk, who allowed three home runs in his season debut, could be in trouble. Home team run lines aren’t the greatest to take as you risk losing that ninth inning with a one-run lead, but I’m not overly concerned at all. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (-125 on Caesars Sportsbook)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned