MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for April 10
How’s your 2023 MLB season coming along? If you’ve been tailing the Fantasy Alarm MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks, then it’s probably coming along very well as we’ve been on quite the hot streak since Opening Day. What I love most is how you all are handling the success. No one is running out to over-bet things and everyone seems to be grinding along. I’ve heard from some people about throwing the day’s best bets into a parlay, but also betting them individually. If that’s your thing and you’ve got the discretionary income to do so, then great. Hopefully you’re still ahead of the game like the rest o us. We’re coming off a 5-1 weekend and ready to dive into a new week, so let’s recap quickly and then move forward.
- Yesterday’s Record: 2-1
- Season Record: 25-7
- Bankroll: +14.29 units
We’ve got a 14-game slate with one early game today, but most important, we’ve got some really good pitching going today, so we’re going to exploit some match-ups if we can.
MLB Best Bets for April 10
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Here’s the first pitching mis-match of the slate as Sandy Alcantara squares off against lefty Matt Strahm. I think you know where this is headed, but just to be sure, let’s touch on a few things. While the Phillies have a .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching, they are striking out 28.1-percent of the time. Alcantara is going to be pretty unforgiving with that kind of a whiff rate. He also goes deep into games, coming off a complete-game shutout of the Twins, so things don’t get left to the bullpen. He’s also had pretty good success against this Phillies lineup. On the other side, the Marlins take their .397 wOBA against southpaws (third-highest in MLB) into the game to face Strahm who may have looked good against the Yankees, but I don’t have much confidence in him in this game. The Marlins bats should enjoy this match-up coming off a strong win against the Mets to avoid the sweep, especially in a hitter-friendly park.
Pick: Miami Marlins Money Line (-130 on BetMGM)
San Diego Padres at New York Mets
Normally we’d all be pretty excited to watch Yu Darvis and Max Scherzer square off, but it’s really early in the season and both pitchers are still working out some of the kinks right now. Darvish was limited during his time at the World Baseball Classic so he is still building up some arm strength. Meanwhile, Scherzer is going through some typical early-season misfires and has already allowed four home runs over two rough starts this season. Both pitchers will eventually get back on-track, but I expect to see both give up a couple of runs today. That should push things over to the bullpens, neither of which has been very strong. The Padres pen is sitting on a 4.63 ERA over 35 innings while the Mets, who still haven’t recovered from the loss of Edwin Diaz, have a 4.41 ERA over 34.2 innings with a mediocre K-rate. Given the offensive output potential of both teams, this over/under looks like it was set more on pitcher reputation than anything.
Pick: Padres/Mets over 7.5 runs (-115 on DK Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Normally I like to stay away from big rivalry games, but I’m going to jump on this one after watching the Dodgers get humiliated by the Diamondbacks and now coming north to face their MLB nemesis. But maybe not in the way you think. Let’s start with lefty Julio Urias on the mound for Los Angeles. This is the year the Dodgers take the reins off Urias and let him do his thing. He has responded with a 2-0 start with a 1.50 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, no walks and a strikeout per inning. He’s going to carry that into Oracle Park against a Giants team that has a league-worst .213 wOBA against lefties with a 40-percent strikeout rate? Yes, please. The Giants will be throwing Logan Webb who is coming off a fantastic year, but has begun this one in less-than-stellar fashion, posting a 6.55 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP over his first 12 innings. The Dodgers bats have been strong, even during their debacle at Chase Field, and have the third-highest wOBA against righties (.371) this season. Emotions or not, this Dodgers team should easily best the Giants and we’re going to get plus-odds while it happens.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line (+120 on DK Sportsbook)
**all best are one unit unless specifically mentioned
Player News
Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee) will not require a follow-up exam in Los Angeles before he starts a minor league rehab assignment.
The Braves have provided a clarification that Acuña will not require a follow-up visit to Los Angeles and is expected to get into minor league rehab games at some point this month. It’s unclear when exactly the 27-year-old fantasy superstar will kick off a rehab assignment, but it sounds like there’s a chance he’s ready to return to Atlanta for his season debut by the end of May.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters top prospect Cade Horton is a candidate to start on Saturday against the Mets.
Counsell also mentioned veteran Chris Flexen as an option to take the ball in place of an injured Shota Imanaga. Horton has looked outstanding this season at Triple-A Iowa, compiling a sparkling microscopic 1.24 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 33/13 K/BB ratio across 29 innings (six starts). The 23-year-old top pitching prospect missed most of last year with a lat injury, but he hasn’t skipped a beat in his return. He would offer some immediate appeal for fantasy managers, which makes him a worthwhile stash candidate in deeper mixed leagues.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters Freddy Peralta (groin) might get an extra “day or two” of additional rest before his next start.
Peralta left Sunday’s start against the Cubs after six innings due to groin soreness and it sounds like he’s going to need some extra time before taking the ball again. The 28-year-old strikeout machine hasn’t undergone any imaging at this point to determine the severity of the issue, but that figures to be in the works. There should be some clarity on his status at some point later this week, but fantasy managers should expect his next start to be pushed back at least a couple days.
Padres manager Mike Shildt confirmed Jackson Merrill (hamstring) will be activated for Tuesday’s game against the Yankees.
Shildt added that Merrill has joined the Padres at Yankee Stadium and will sit out Monday’s series opener as part of the final stage of his rehabilitation process. The 22-year-old franchise cornerstone went 2-for-6 with a walk in a pair of minor league rehab contests over the weekend for Double-A San Antonio. He’ll return to San Diego’s lineup on Tuesday following a one-month absence due to a right hamstring strain.
Brice Turang is not in the lineup for Monday’s series opener against the Astros.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters they want to give Turang an extra day off as he continues to work his way back from last week’s illness that cost him a couple games. It doesn’t sound like a significant concern moving forward.
Sal Frelick (knee) is absent from the lineup for Monday’s series opener against the Astros.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters MRI results on Frelick’s left knee were encouraging and that he expects him to avoid a trip to the injured list. It sounds like there’s a chance the versatile 25-year-old returns to Milwaukee’s lineup at some point later this week. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.