Mets vs. Brewers Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Wild Card Game 3, 10/3
Whelp, Game 3 of the National League Wild Card matchup between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers is tonight after the Brewers comeback win over the Mets in Game 2.
This is an elimination game with the winner heading to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies this Saturday afternoon.
It was the young players for the Brewers who did the damage yesterday with Jackson Chourio homering twice and then Garrett Mitchell with a the pinch-hit two run homer in the eighth innings to give the Brewers a 5-3 lead they would not surrender.
Before we can give our Mets vs Brewers prediction for this Game 3 matchup, let us take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups for tonight's game.
Mets vs. Brewers Predictions for NL Wild Card Game 3
It was looking like the Mets were going to sweep after the scored three runs off of Frankie Montas and chased him from the game after just 3.2 innings but a pair of home runs from Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell in the eighth inning put the Brewers ahead for good.
When it comes to our Game 3 Mets vs Brewers prediction we really just need to examine the pitching matchups.
For the Mets they are sending out lefty Jose Quintana. The veteran southpaw put together a strong year for New York, going 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA over 31 starts.
Quintana had a particularly strong month of September where he allowed just two earned runs over 25.0 innings with a 25% strikeout rate.
His final start of the season came against this same Brewers team and in that outing he allowed two runs over 4.1 innings while striking out nine.
Starting opposite of Quintana we see the Brewers send out rookie Tobias Myers. The 25-year old appeared in 27 games this season, making 25 starts for the Brewers. He went 9-6 with a 3.00 ERA over those appearances.
Myers also appeared in that same game, though not making the start, he tossed four inning of shutout baseball while striking out five.
We know both of these offenses are capable of scoring runs as each game in the series has gone over the projected run today.
The key to this game here tonight is which pitcher can keep the opposing lineup in check.
Milwaukee Brewers: Can Jackson Chourio Lead the Way?
The youngest player in the MLB this season was Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio but by the time we hit the second half of the season it was easy to see why he was the top prospect in baseball and why the Brewers handed him an $82 million dollar contract before he played a major league inning.
In his rookie season, Chourio hit .275 with 80 runs, 21 homers, 79 RBI and 22 stolen bases. But, like I said, he had a monster second half of the season, hitting .310 with 12 homers, 12 stolen bases and a .914 OPS over the final 63 games of the season.
Chourio homered twice in Game 2, and in Game 1 he was 2-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI.
With a lefty on the mound we should see him leadoff as he did last night when the Mets pitched southpaw Sean Manaea and Chourio led the game off for the Brewers with a home run.
Chourio has the ceiling to be the best player on the Brewers team and he is looking the part in the biggest moments.
Will he have another one of this big moments tonight and take the Brewers into the next round of the playoffs?
New York Mets: Will The Mets Pull Off the Upset?
It looked like the Mets were destined for the two-game sweep last night until their bullpen fell apart in the eighth innings and the Brewers hit two home runs to come back and win.
Is that the blow that leads to the end of the Mets season? Are they able to overcome yesterday's disappointment knowing they were just a few outs away from moving on to the divisional round where the Phillies are waiting?
Unlike the Brewers who are sending out rookie Tobias Myers, the Mets are using veteran Jose Quintana and maybe that experience is enough to get the Mets through to the next round.
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
For our Mets vs. Brewers predictions, here are the current odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Mets +1.5 (-198)
- Brewers -1.5 (+164)
Money Line
- Mets: +100
- Brewers: -130
Total
- 7.0 (Over -122/Under+102)
Mets vs. Brewers Starting Pitcher & Lineup
The Mets will have veteran left-hander Jose Quintana on the mound. Quintana delivered a solid season for New York, posting a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA across 31 starts.
He was especially sharp in September, giving up just two earned runs over 25 innings while recording a 25% strikeout rate.
This season, Quintana has faced the Brewers twice, allowing four runs on 11 hits over nine innings.
Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing Quintana, the Brewers will start rookie Tobias Myers. The 25-year-old made 27 appearances this season, including 25 starts, finishing with a 9-6 record and a solid 3.00 ERA.
Myers also pitched in that same earlier matchup, where, despite not starting, he threw four shutout innings and struck out five batters.
Mets vs. Brewers Game Total: Under 7.0 Runs (+102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
While both of the first two games of this series have gone over the run total, this is an elimination game and I would expect both managers to act accordingly.
What this means is at the first sign of trouble we could see some matchup based pitching changes and with a day off between the next game we could very well see multiple arms used here by each team in an effort to get into the next round of the playoffs.
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