DFS Strategy: Why I'm not a better DFS player

Last week I unveiled a couple of personal feelings regarding DFS and at the end promised I’d share some thoughts why I’m not a better DFS player. Sometimes I type before I really vet what my fingers produce and over the course of the ensuing week came close to bagging it. My concern was it would come off as a collection of self-serving, whiny excuses devoid of any tangible take-home messages you can apply to your game play. Well, since you’re reading this I obviously decided to go through with it and let the chips fall where there may. The primary reason is betwixt and between wallowing in my own self-pity there are some nuggets you can likely think about with respect to your DFS routine.

1. Need to incorporate more outside sources

On the “type of employment” line on my tax return I enter fantasy baseball analyst. Part of my job description is generating daily projections and writing about DFS strategy. In other words, I do this for a living.

If Wonder Woman were to ensnare me in her Lasso of Truth and ask me whose projections and strategy I trust the most, my reply would be unequivocally my own. If she were to then admit that she and some of the other superheroes were into DFS and read my stuff as well as a bunch of others, I’d tell her that’s exactly what she should be doing.

And so should I.

There’s a lot of really smart and original analysts out there. Just like when setting your cheat sheets for seasonal fantasy, it’s best to look at a collection of sources, identify the outliers and do some extra research.

If after investigating a player or two for which I’m on an island I still believe my conclusions, I can confidently use that player knowing his usage that slate will probably be limited. If I’m right, I really benefit. If, however, in the course of my follow-up research I’m convinced otherwise, I not only saved myself from making a poor choice I learned something which should render me a better analyst, as well as a better player.

2. Need to be less reliant on Excel and more subjective when apropos

It’s no secret I’m a spreadsheet guy. I have a process which I’ve documented in this space that produces a daily projection for each player. But think about that. Is a player really going to produce that exact projection? No, of course not. We’re looking for players likely to exceed that projection. I’m not convinced a higher projection always portends the ability to beat the projection.

Spreadsheets have two chief advantages. First, they don’t forget or miss someone (assuming the operator didn’t forget to include someone). More importantly, they do something you and I have a real hard time doing and that’s ignore recency bias.

That said, their ability to ignore recency bias aside, they can’t reason. Sure, they can perform the if-then algorithms encoded which may be construed as reasoning, that’s not what I’m talking about. They can’t reason in terms of reacting to some of the more esoteric factors in setting a lineup.

Someone even more of a nerd than I will contend this can all be coded, and to a certain extent it can. Factors such as weather, if a team had an extra-inning game the night before, if it’s at the end of a long road trip, if a key hitter is playing hurt etc. are all elements that should be considered but may not be accounted for in the spreadsheet. This doesn’t even consider using a safe player versus a more volatile player, or wanting to be exposed to or fade a stack. Projections and the associated points per dollar are nice tools but they aren’t the be-all-end-all. They’re an important, but not exclusive piece to the puzzle.

3. Need to be less cavalier about setting lineups

Here’s the one I’ll either be lauded for my candidness or chastised for my laziness and irresponsibility. There some plusses and minuses about having my hobby be my vocation. The biggest downfall is sometimes after spending my previous waking hours helping other people manage their seasonal squads as well as offer DFS advice, the last thing I want to do when I’m done is attend to my own squads and lineups. I know, it seems inane but it’s the truth.

On his birthday for his special meal, do you think a pizza chef asks his family to order an extra cheese and pepperoni for delivery?

Be it writing a strategy column, answering e-mails, replying to tweets, updating my rest-of-season projection engine, responding to questions or comments etc., my day (and night) revolves around fantasy baseball. Sometimes, when it comes to setting my own rosters and lineups I’m just not into it. It’s wrong. It hurts my seasonal game play as well as DFS, but it’s the truth. There are other factors in my life away from the job that contribute but now we’re really bordering on TMI.

By means of example, I alluded to my spreadsheets. I have a process by which I can dump in the most updated lineups and upload these to the website since spot in the batting order, let alone whether a player is in the lineup can drastically change their outlook on a given night. I’ll do the update but often don’t take it to the next level and look for actionable repercussions to the actual lineups. My sheet will adjust for a different than expected catcher and adjust the projected steals or the strikeout expectations of a pitcher, I’m not talking about stuff like that. It’s more subtle like dropping from 4^th to 6^th in the order and how even if in the six-hole the player projects well, his utility in a stack is lessened which I may not catch if all I do is look at the projected points.

The absolute best way to gain an edge is to incorporate the most recent information into your decisions, especially since a great deal of your competitors are relying on advice given from dated information, without actually knowing the actual lineup or weather conditions.

Again, it’s wrong but there are times I just don’t want to go the extra mile. I’ll never, ever skimp when it comes to doing my job, please don’t get that impression. In my head, when I feel this way I know these are the slates to skip, and I sometimes do. But more often than not my heart lays the guilt trip on me and I feel obligated to use the pitcher I pimped that day or the hitter I called out as most likely to go yard. I just fail to support that call with adequate help in the other positions.

There you have it. I honestly believe I can hang with anyone when it comes to identifying strong plays or talking strategy, though I do cop to others having greater knowledge when it comes to playing with a large bankroll or high volume. But for the most part, I’ll put my work as an analyst on a par with anyone.

I’m just not as adept at constructing a full line-up on a night-to-night basis. At least not yet.

Next time we’ll get back to doing what I do best, crunching numbers.