Atlanta Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer sat Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap—all starters—Wednesday so they could rest. This decision was notable for several reasons:
It is too early to call this a trend, but at the very least I think fantasy players need to take note. It might be an overreaction to trade Teague, Millsap, Korver or Horford, but if you can get top-15 value for any of them, you probably should. If those guys only play 38 games the rest of the season instead of 44 that could be the difference in a close race.
That is not to say I believe they will only play 38 games. Atlanta is a young team across the board, as 33-year-old Kyle Korver is the only rotation player over 30. Most of the other players in the NBA who get rested—the Spurs, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony—are either 10 years older than Teague or nursing a nagging injury or both. The 76ers and Celtics are ideal teams against which to rest some starters. The Hawks can really only rest their starters against those teams, the Knicks or the Lakers and still feel confident they will get a win. Until we see Budenholzer rest significant players against a good or even mediocre team, I am not ready to declare this a trend.
There is, however, no denying resting players is becoming a trend around the league. I wondered, then, if there was a way for savvy fantasy players to use this trend to gain a competitive advantage. Answering this question empirically is extremely difficult. Resting healthy players is still a very new trend, and there just is not much data to go on. It is made even more difficult because not all rest is reported the same way. When the Lakers rest Kobe Bryant it is recorded in the box score as “DNP REST” though the Hawks who sat Tuesday and Wednesday got a “DNP COACH’S DECISION.”
My guess is players who get a day off to rest should put up better fantasy numbers the following day. Those players should be fresh, which should lead to better play and perhaps even increased minutes. That was the case Wednesday, as Carroll, Teague and Millsap all scored at least 18 points. Those performances were likely helped by Budenholzer’s decision to rest Al Horford and Kyle Korver for that game, but there is no denying the Hawks looked fresh against Boston.
It seems rest has helped the fantasy fortunes of Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili as well. Ginobili is averaging 15.5 ppg coming back from rest, up from 12.3 for the season. Tim Duncan is averaging 17.6 ppg after rest, up from 15.1 for the season. Nowitzki’s scoring is slightly down in those games, but his minutes and assists are up.
On the other hand, Kevin Garnett is averaging 6.9 ppg following rest, down from his 7.2 ppg average for the season while Kobe Bryant is 9-41 from the field and 3-15 on threes coming back from rest. Bryant clearly hasn’t been the same since missing three consecutive games Christmas Week, but he has been better when he has gotten to play two or three games in-a-row.
In general I would expect players to fare better coming off of rest. I do not think it is a huge advantage, and I would not play somebody in a poor matchup just because he had the previous game off, but it could be enough to make a good play a very good play, and it could be a tie-breaker if I am deciding between two players.
Another key factor is the schedule, so let’s get to my fantasy picks for the week from Monday, January 19 to Monday, January 26. These picks are made under the assumption these players will play. I cannot help it if a coach sits his key players in a particularly juicy fantasy matchup.
Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (Road vs. Knicks, Home vs. Lakers, Road vs. Timberwolves, Home vs. Mavericks, Home vs. 76ers) New Orleans begins next week against the three worst teams in the NBA in defensive rating before ending with two teams who are in the middle of the pack but make up for it by playing fast. Gordon needs to be owned in all leagues, at least for this week.
Chris Kaman, Portland Trail Blazers (Home vs. Kings, Road vs. Suns, Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Wizards, Road vs. Nets) I could write an entire article about how the Kings are playing since firing Mike Malone. They are fourth in pace and have the third-worst defensive rating over the last 15 games. Phoenix and Boston are also teams who play fast but do not defend very well. Kaman is averaging 23.7 minutes per game in January, and he should continue to play more with Robin Lopez out.
J.J. Hickson, Denver Nuggets (Road vs. Warriors, Home vs. Spurs, Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Wizards, Road vs. Clippers) I had Jusuf Nurkic in this space last week, and I almost picked him again. I prefer him to Hickson, but both big men should benefit from this schedule. The Warriors and Celtics are in the top 10 in opponent’s rebounds per game and opponent’s blocks per game, with the Spurs not far behind.
Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors (Road vs. Bucks, Road vs. Grizzlies, Road vs. 76ers, Home vs. Pistons) Patterson doesn’t provide a whole lot for fantasy outside of 3-pointers, but this is a good schedule for someone who launches threes. Only the Hawks and Knicks have allowed more threes to opposing teams over the last 15 games than the 76ers and Grizzlies. DeMar DeRozan’s return should help Patterson get more open looks as well.
Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (Home vs. Pelicans, Road vs. 76ers, Home vs. Magic, Road vs. Hornets, Home vs. Kings) It is hard to know what to do with the Knicks, especially with Carmelo Anthony in and out of the lineup. What I do know is the Kings, Magic and Pelicans are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, with the 76ers and Hornets only faring slightly better. Galloway is averaging 11.3 points and 1.3 3PM in three games with the Knicks, and he is worth a shot in deep leagues or daily games.
With so many coaches resting healthy players, checking your lineup before game time is more important than ever. You may not have anyone on your bench to replace Jeff Teague, or the roster flexibility to add Dennis Schroder, but making those subtle moves could be the difference in a tight fantasy race.