33 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 5’11”, 185 lbs
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2008 | 0-0 | 7.82 | 1.74 | 7.11 | 3.55 | 12.2 |
2009 | 0-1 | 6.14 | 1.36 | 11.05 | 4.91 | 7.1 |
2010 | 0-0 | 9.53 | 1.76 | 13.32 | 4.76 | 11.1 |
2011 | 4-8 | 408 | 1.21 | 8.55 | 282 | 92.2 |
2012 | 5-7 | 3.64 | 1.14 | 9.30 | 1.89 | 138.1 |
2013 | 7-4 | 3.87 | 1.08 | 8.30 | 2.04 | 128 |
2014 | 7-6 | 4.36 | 1.20 | 7.59 | 2.63 | 150.2 |
2015 | 13-8 | 3.13 | 1.04 | 6.51 | 2.73 | 181 |
2016 | 9-9 | 3.48 | 1.12 | 8.44 | 3.32 | 176 |
Career | 45-43 | 3.86 | 1.14 | 8.06 | 2.67 | 898 |
THE SKILLS 
To me, Estrada is the new Chris Young. You know, the guy that often dominates yet you can never feel fully confident about starting him in all formats.
Here’s why I’m concerned and why you should be too it comes to Estrada.
Estrada really isn’t very good.
For his career Estrada has a league average 8.06 K/9 rate. Only once in the last three years has he posted a mark that high. In fact, in two of the last three years it was much lower at 7.59 and 6.51. For his career, Estrada owns a slightly better than league average swinging strike rate of 10.5 percent. The last two seasons the league average swinging strike rate was 10.0 percent. The last two seasons Estrada’s swinging strike rate is 10.4 percent. He’s basically a league average strikeout arm.
Estrada owns a 2.67 BB/9 rate for his career, a solid mark. The league average during his career is 3.08 per nine. Obviously, Estrada is slightly better than that. That being said, I should still note a true negative. Last year Estrada walked 3.32 batters per nine. Besides being worse than the league average, it also was the first time he posted a mark over 2.85 since the 2010 season, eons ago. The result was a 2.54 K/BB ratio in’16, a third straight season under 2.90 (career 3.02). The league average the last three seasons is 2.63 by the way. Add it up and Estrada is just league average with a 6-year worst BB/9 rate being the secondary headline.
The next area to look at is the batted ball data. Here’s where the real craziness begins.
Estrada has a 47.7 percent fly ball rate for his career. That’s a terrible number. In each of the last three seasons the mark has been over 48 percent. The league fly ball rate the past three seasons is 34.3 percent. You can see just how bad Estrada is compared to a league average arm in this measure.
All those fly balls have led to a 0.73 GB/FB ratio for his career. The mark is even worse at a scary bad level of 0.65 the last three years. That’s a horrible number folks (the league average last season was 1.29). Estrada is nowhere close to being a league average arm here. Not close.
The results of all those fly balls are obvious – tons of homers.
Estrada has allowed a ghastly 1.32 homers per nine innings for his career. In each of the last five seasons the mark has been at least 1.17. The last three seasons his HR/9 mark has been 1.35, the third worst in all of baseball (Jered Weaver 1.44 and James Shields 1.41). He is basically as homer prone as any arm in the game that is routinely taking a spot in the starting rotation.
Things could get even worse here too. For his career, Estrada owns a 10.9 percent HR/FB ratio. From 2010-14 the mark was over 10 percent every season. The last two years the marks have been 8.7 and 9.9 percent. It’s likely, in fact even probable, that the mark rises in 2017. The guy allows tons of fly balls and they are routinely mashed into the seats.
So how does Estrada keep the runs and hits down? Good question.
Estrada rarely allows line drives in relation to the league average. Generally, the league average in line drive rates are about 20 percent (the mark was nearly 21 percent last season). Only once in his entire career has Estrada had a mark of 20 percent (20.2 in 2012). The last four seasons his high has been 18.3 percent. He just doesn’t give up line drives.
Estrada also doesn’t allow too many base hits no matter what type of batted ball. The last two seasons batters have hit .202 against Estrada. That’s the fourth lowest in baseball. Let me ask you, does the name of Marco Estrada fit with this group: Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer? Do I really need to break down things at all for you to get that something smells fishy here?
The last two seasons Estrada has a .224 BABIP. That’s the best mark in baseball. As we’ve already established, he has stuff that is far from elite. Some of the low BABIP has to do with his huge fly ball rate since fly balls don’t become hits very often. Secondly, his BABIP is a bit low because he allows so many homers and home runs aren’t recorded by BABIP. Still, even the “great” Estrada has a career mark of .256. It’s extremely likely that his BABIP goes up a substantial amount in 2017.
Let’s move past his raw ERA which looks so solid of late. Here are his marks the last two seasons in a couple of runs allowed categories.
| ERA | SIERA | xFIP |
2015 | 3.13 | 4.64 | 4.93 |
2016 | 3.48 | 4.35 | 4.64 |
Career | 3.86 | 3.89 | 4.19 |
So, even though his ERA the last two seasons have been the two best marks he’s ever posted, his two SIERA marks are the worst of his career. As for xFIP, his 2015 mark was a career worst and his two year average was half a run worse than his career rate. Folks, Estrada hasn’t pitched any better the last two seasons despite the growth that ERA suggests. In fact, he’s pitched slightly worse than the totality of his career.
Finally, why does no one talk about the innings thing with Estrada? A starting pitcher since 2012, Estrada has thrown 180-innings just once (a career-high 181 in 2015). That means in five seasons as a starter Estrada has thrown 180-innings one time. Only twice in his career has he thrown enough innings in a season to qualify for the ERA title (162 frames). Over the last five seasons he’s averaged 23.8 starts and 155 innings a season. He does not have the track record of someone you can trust to start for you all season long.
Speaking of innings, let’s talk health. Estrada missed a month last season with back woes. He will almost certainly pass on the World Baseball Classic because of the back. “Physically I feel great, I feel ready but it’s being able to locate pitches and it’s not like I’m breaking off curveballs right now, or even changeups. I’ve got to make sure all that stuff is intact for this season, for us. Once it’s ready and it comes in time, maybe I will go play with them.”
He might say he’s fine, but as noted above, innings have never really been Estrada’s thing.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is Estrada’s ADP data.
| Overall | Position Rank |
233.7 | 66th | |
206.7 | 53rd |
CONCLUSION
League average strikeouts and K/BB rates. Too many fly balls. Too many home runs. No track record of strong health. Pretty easy for me to suggest many folks are greatly overestimating the outlook of Estrada heading into the ’17 season.
10-Team Mixed: Not interested in this format.
12-Team Mixed: There is no way he’s ending up on my team at the current ADP cost.
15-Team Mixed: As a 6th starter here Estrada is a passable option, but please make sure you aren’t expecting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP or you will be greatly disappointed.
AL-Only League: For all the concerns, Estrada has posted a WHIP of 1.21 or lower each of the last six years. At least there’s stability there.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).