2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta

Age: 31 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R 

Height/Weight: 6’4”, 225 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Arrieta was out of control good in 2015 including producing one of the greatest runs in the history of baseball in the second half (12-1, 0.75 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 113 strikeouts versus 23 walks in 107.1 innings). There was no way he was going to repeat that effort in 2016. He didn’t, and though he was still extremely good last season there were some cracks in the foundation that deserve to be pointed out before anyone blindly drafts Arrieta as their ace in 2017.

Let’s start out with the obvious

Arrieta’s ERA went up more than a full run last season. Still, that 3.10 mark was 10^th in the NL. Arrieta posted a 3-year high in WHIP of 1.08, the 7^th best mark in the NL. Oh hell, let’s graph this sucker.

Let’s talk strikeouts. The rate Arrieta posted last season was still above his 8.22 career rate. It’s still a strong number. However, it’s lacking based upon the previous two seasons. Even more concerning is the fact that the number plummeted to 7.48 in the second half.

Arrieta had an excellent walk rate in 2014-15. Last year the number skyrocketed to scary time levels. When a pitcher adds nearly and entire batter and a half to his walk rate something is seriously wrong.

Arrieta insanely allowed 15 homers in two seasons. Despite all the grounders, that’s just not a sustainable pace. Hardly shocking he saw his homer rate double last season as his HR/FB ratio returned to normal (the mark was 11.1 percent in 2016, just off his 10.3 percent career mark).

Arrieta actually saw his BABIP go down last season, so his relative “struggles” had nothing to do with an increase there.

Arrieta owned a 77.4 percent left on base rate in 2014-15, a large number that placed him 16^th in baseball. A mark that high is extremely difficult to post year after year and only a handful of guys can consistently produce at that level. Seeing Arrieta regress to 74.9 percent last season makes all the sense in the world. The mark is still well above his 71.9 percent career mark (the league average is 70 percent). The regression was always going to come.

Arrieta saw a slight dip in GB/FB last season, but totally normal regression there and nothing to be nervous about. By the way, the 1.89 mark he posted last season was the second best mark of his career.

 Let’s take a look at some PITCHf/x data and see what’s changed with Arrieta.

*FB – Fastball, SI – Sinker, SL – Slider, CU – Curve, CH - Change

Obviously he starting throwing his fastball and sinker more frequently. What were the results? Here are the OPS marks on each pitch for the two periods of time.

The fastball and sinker – totally the same.

The number on the change up was actually .315 in 2015 as he made an adjustment with the pitch. One can argue that it’s been the best changeup in baseball since the 2015 season.

It’s the slider and the curveball that are the culprits, and that’s a concern given that he threw those two pitches about 65 percent of the time last year.

The curveball was hammered last season with a 30.8 percent line drive rate though he still posted an impressive 17.2 percent swinging strike rate on the pitcher.

The slider simply didn’t fool batters like it once did. The line drive rate was elevated at 28.2 percent, a career worst. The swinging strike rate was 13.0 percent, a thre- year low. The swing percentage on the pitch was 51.9 percent, a three-year low (51.9 percent was miles off the 57.5 mark the previous two years). The BB-rate on the pitch was double the 2014-15 mark while the K-rate on the pitch was a career worst.

Let’s talk about what happened on the pitches.

*SwStr – Swinging strike rate, F-Strike – First pitch strike, Swing% - Swinging rate, O-Swing – Swings at pitches outside strike zone, O-Contact – Contact on pitches swung at outside the strike zone

Face it folks. Arrieta simply wasn’t the pitcher we saw in 2014 and 2015 last season. Pretty much every measure speaks to that. What makes that even more scary than the surface is the fact that his production, which was down for him in 2016, was even worse in the second half. Look at his performance in the second half last season. It’s not pretty.

Again, it’s not bad luck as that BABIP points out. The fact is that Arrieta wasn’t the same pitcher last season, and in the second half things went even further off the rails – especially as he couldn’t put batters away and seemingly kept walking batters every time he went deep in the count.

Was it all the sliders that led to the struggles as his arm is starting to show the wear and tear of the pitch (is that we he cut its usage so heavily last year)?

Perhaps it was the innings increase? Here are his numbers the last four years (minors and playoffs included).

2013: 154.2
2014: 176.2
2015: 248.2
2016: 219.2

Just a few more things to keep in the back of your mind with Arrieta.

CONCLUSION

Jake Arrieta should be fine in 2017. No worries with him despite what you’ve read above, that is unless you are planning on him being an outright ace. I would just ask you to be reasonable with your expectations since “ace-dom” isn’t a lock with the Cubs’ righty. The trends are virtually all moving in the wrong direction with Arrieta, and with that level of concern banking on him as a sure-fire top-10 starting pitcher is a risky position to hold.  

10-Team Mixed: An ideal second pitcher in this format.

12-Team Mixed: An ideal second pitcher in this format. I would make sure that I paired him with an arm I could full trust meaning I would avoid arms with health concerns and uncertain stability scores.

15-Team Mixed: A solid first pitching option in this format. At the same time, if he doesn’t look sharp in April note that you would best be served looking to bolster your starting pitching rotation quickly.

NL-Only League: Someone is going to draft him to be their ace. Should it be you? All depends on your risk tolerance of course. At the same time, look at the other high level NL starters that have health concerns – Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Col etc., and you realize that you have to take a chance on someone.

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Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray on the channel Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).