Ray’s Ramblings: The Expectation Game

I received a question on Twitter from @BPforPrez99 asking me if Anthony Rendon could go 20/20 this season. I responded “Too high, but 15/15 is doable.” I then got the following note from @mlepselter “Why is 20/20 "too high"? Last year he was a consensus 1st/2nd rounder. Now he's not capable of that?” Point by point, here is my response. (1) I never said Rendon couldn’t go 20/20. (2) Just because he was a first or second round draft pick last year means nothing as it pertains to the 2016 season. (3) Realize that the guy had multiple injuries last season that limited him to only half a season of work. To reiterate, multiple injuries and multiple setbacks. (4) Understand that 21 homers and 17 steals, his totals in 2014, do not guarantee that he’s a 20/20 threat this season. (5) Just because he’s young and had that strong season in 2014 doesn’t mean he’s going to better it in 2016. (6) He’s never gone 20/20 before so, really, how bad would it be if he went 15/15? That last point kinda sums up the whole thing with Rendon. Even a 15/15 season is aggressive for Rendon given the disaster that last season was, and it’s also aggressive given his overall skillset. We all need to be reasonable with our expectations. COULD he go 20/20. Yes. Is it likely? No it isn’t.

This example brings up something I would like to discuss in a bit more detail. That topic is expectations. Seems like the fantasy universe is filled with folks who have out of whack expectations. Could Chris Davis hit 47 homers again? Could Billy Hamilton steal 70 bases? Could Madison Bumgarner win 20 games with a 2.50 ERA and 225 strikeouts. You could answer all of those questions with a yes. At the same time, is it really advantageous to you to think of players in these terms, expecting the absolute maximum of their talents to produce the absolute maximum of numbers? The answer is clearly no. Some facts to remember with all players.

1 – Be very wary of projections.

I wrote about this a couple of times in Why Fantasy Baseball Projections Stink and Why Fantasy Baseball Projections Stink, Part II.

Notice when you look at the projections that they hardly ever predict a drastic change downward. Nearly all the systems predict the same or slightly better for full-time players. The mitigating factor is often the health of the player, but the truth is it’s not remotely reasonable to expect every to be the same or better. Also, remember players aren’t robots. Situations can effect players, both on and off the field, that can impact their performance on it.

2 – Players don’t develop in a linear manner.

Just because a guy in his first season hit seven home runs, then 12 in year two, then 17 in year three does not mean that the player will automatically hit 22 in year four. It doesn’t work like that. It’s possible that a guy might go 12, 7, 22, 17 OR 12, 22, 7, 17 etc. Say a guy hits .270, .290, .310. That doesn’t mean he will hit .330 in the coming season. It doesn’t mean he will hit .310 to match the previous season either. Remember, that players three year average is still just .290. Focus on the skills of the player more than the raw numbers. The skills hold the key.

3 – A player’s skills might improve but that doesn’t always mean his numbers will.

Maybe a guy added a batter to his strikeout rate, cut a half batter of his walk rate and improved his groundball mark by five percent yet his ERA still went up half a run because he allowed nine more homers than the year before. Overall, if a guy is adding strikeouts, is limiting walks, and inducing more ground balls then he is improving. However, if you only look at his ERA you might miss that fact. It stands to reason if the pitcher were to hold on to his growth, and his home run rate were to return to normal in the following season, that his ERA would show substantial improvement. You might miss that if you were only looking at his fantasy numbers. Skills matter folks. It’s why I write Player Profiles daily and why I write articles such Don’t Give Up On as in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide.

4 – Just because the herd thinks Player A will be a star or a failure does not in any meaningful way mean that Player A will be a star or failure.

Don’t be afraid to do your own analysis and think for yourself.

Don’t be afraid to listen completely to the Oracle, and me alone.

You get my point I hope.

Just because everyone thinks that Nolan Arenado is worth a top-10 pick this season doesn’t mean it’s a lock he will produce at that level. Just because everyone has given up on Leonys Martin doesn’t mean he couldn’t steal 25 bases and score 70 runs. Just because everyone is predicting Matt Harvey to be a top-10 starting pitcher doesn’t mean he is immune to injury or struggles.

We all fall into “group think” at times. I get it. There is safety in numbers. It’s scary to walk out on that plank alone. You think it was easy for me to say last season that Jose Abreu wasn’t a top-5 first baseman while everyone else in the universe thought he was a top-10 overall player? Of course it was a bit scary. At the same time that’s what my analysis of him told me. I let the data, not my heart, lead me (by the way, I was right). The point is that just because ADP says Player B should be a top-25 pick doesn’t mean you can’t rank him 47^th on your list. Conversely, if ADP says Player C is the 225^th player it’s OK if your analysis says he really should be the 175^th player (though of course, I would never draft a team that way – see Why No Top Whatever List?).

Be careful not to view the world with rose colored glasses.

Keep your expectations in check, keep them realistic, and you will be much happier in the end. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.