2016 MLB Player Profile: Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz is already 31 years old (he will be 32 in August). The righty from Boston tantalizes with elite level performances at times, but he’s also one of the most injury prone hurlers in the game. Can Buchholz put it all together proving the doubters, including me, wrong? Or will the greasy haired one do what he seemingly always does in disappointing those that roster him year after year in the fantasy game?

THE NUMBERS

*Per 34 starts: 15-10, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 163 Ks over 208 innings.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

WORKLOAD

Look back at those 162 games totals above. Here’s what you need to know.

Buchholz has never made 34 starts in a season. He’s never made 30 starts actually.

Buchholz has never thrown 208 innings in a season. He’s never thrown 190 innings in a season actually.

More…

Clay has been a big league pitcher for nine seasons.

He’s thrown 100-innings five times. Another way to put it. In just 56 percent of his big league seasons has Clay thrown 100-innings. Even if you toss out his 2007 season it’s still just 5-of-8 seasons with 100-innings. That’s just 63 percent of the seasons.

Clay has thrown 120-innings three times in his career.

Clay has thrown 140-innings three times in his career.

Clay has thrown 160-innings three times in his career.

Clay has thrown 180-innings one time in his career.

In nine big league years he’s thrown 175-innings just a single time. ONCE. He tossed 189.1 innings back in 2012.

In his career Buchholz has thrown 120-innings in back-to-back seasons… NEVER. Please read that line again. Please.

Why does anyone have confidence in this man?

I honestly don’t care how talented a guy is. Neither should you if he cannot stay on the field. Through nearly a decade it’s clear that Buchholz cannot stay healthy. That means if you’re drafting him… I just can’t help you.

RATIOS

For his career Clay has a 3.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Since 2007 the league ERA is 4.33 and the WHIP 1.36. Buchholz is obviously ahead. Buchholz is slightly better than the league average, yippee.

Let’s start with his ERA.

Buchholz has seasons with an ERA of 2.33 and 1.74. The first mark qualified him for the ERA title (he finished third in 2010). The 1.74 mark in 2013 was over a mere 108.1 innings.

I keep talking innings. Let’s break down his ERA in the three seasons in which he’s thrown at least 160-innings.

2010: 2.33 ERA
2012: 4.56 ERA
2014: 5.34 ERA

Over those 533.1 innings Buchholz has posted an ERA of 4.08. That’s not good. Nevermind the fact that only once in the three seasons has his ERA been under 4.50. In fact, his ERA in the “non-inning” seasons is lower at 3.60.     

Some more data.

In nine seasons Buchholz has posted an ERA under 1.75 twice.

In nine seasons Buchholz has an ERA under 3.50 five times.

In nine seasons Buchholz has an ERA over 4.20 four times.

There’s not a lot of middle ground with Buchholz.

As for WHIP…

Buchholz owns that 1.30 career mark that is now a league average rate.

In two of the last four seasons Buchholz has a WHIP over his career ratio.

The last two seasons Buchholz has a 1.31 WHIP. Same as always.

Let’s break down his WHIP in the three seasons in which he’s thrown at least 160-innings.

2010: 1.20 WHIP
2012: 1.33 WHIP
2014: 1.39 WHIP

Over those 533.1 innings Buchholz has posted an WHIP of 1.31. That’s not good. In fact, his WHIP in the “non-inning” seasons is slightly lower. Healthy or not, Buchholz apparently is always the same guy and that is a league average arm.

STRIKEOUTS / WALKS

Buchholz owns a 7.05 K/9 rate for his career.
The league average during Buchholz’s career is 7.15.
That’s league average. Duh.

From 2009 to 2012 the mark was under 6.70 each season. He has posted marks over 7.95 in 2-of-3 seasons and that does includes an 8.50 mark last year, but can you trust that? Once in seven seasons Clay has posted a K-rate per nine over eight. Don’t let recency bias warp your opinion on Buchholz. There are a few points that suggest he could certainly better his career rate though, in addition to last year’s effort.

Buchholz posted a 10.6 swinging K-rate last season. That’s a career best in a season of 25-innings. It was only 1.3 above his career rate of 9.3 percent.

He did do a better job of throwing strikes with a 50.1 percent strike rate last season, his best mark in six years. Actually, it was the first time the mark was over 45 percent in that time. Can he hold on to that?

Buchholz induced swings on 50.1 percent of his pitches, a career best. At no point in the other eight seasons of his career did he reach 47 percent. Oh yeah, his career mark is 45.8 percent. Can he hold on to the growth?

How did he show the growth last season?

Here are the swinging strike rates on his pitches.

He actually lost swings on his off-speed stuff but he greatly increased the swings and misses on the hard stuff, especially the cutter. Oddly, when batters made contact on the cutter they posted a .732 OPS which is .080 points higher than the batters OPS on the pitch since 2011. They swung and missed at it more frequently, but when they hit it the results were the same as always.

BATTED BALL RATES

Buchholz has the ability to generate a lot of ground balls. His 48.3 percent mark last season is a very strong mark, though an odd situation has occurred of late. The last four seasons Buchholz has failed to reach his career mark of 48.7 percent. He’s been very stable spending all four seasons coming in at between 46.6 and 48.3 percent, but those marks are all slightly below his 48.7 percent career mark and those four seasons also come on the heels of 3-straight years with a mark over 50 percent (2009-11). Nothing to panic about but just not as impressive as it once was. Close though.

For his career Buchholz owns an 18.8 percent line drive rate. That’s well below the league average of 20 percent. However, Buchholz has failed to match his career line drive rate in any of the last four seasons. Even last year, when he had some success, he still posted the worst line drive rate he’s even had in a season of 25-innings at 21.1 percent. Not a bad mark at all, but four years above his career rate is something to think about.

Buchholz has never been a big home run hurler obviously, but last season was a bit much. Buchholz owns a 9.5 percent HR/FB ratio for his career, smack dab on the league average. However, the mark was 5.9 percent last season. That’s just not sustainable. Moreover, Clay had a 0.48 HR/9 mark last season well below his 0.83 rate. Things should normalize in 2016. 

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

I don’t like Buchholz’s hair. I don’t trust him to stay healthy either. There are parts of his game that intrigue, but I simply cannot get over the fact that he simply c a n n o t take the ball every five games. I’m just not rostering him.

10-team Mixed: There is no reason to draft Buchholz in this format. He’s nothing more than a pickup off waivers when one of your current guy goes down with injury or when there is a particularly appealing matchup.

12-team Mixed: He’s a 6/7 starter in this format. Still, not one that I trust, so it’s particularly risky to roster him if there are others out there like Jimmy Nelson or Erasmo Ramirez still available. At least in this scribe’s eyes anyway.

15-team Mixed: Getting to a spot where you could consider Buchholz as a depth option. Others will take shots on youngsters like Anthony DeSclafani or Daniel Norris so you could justify diving in with Buchholz if you’re tempted by hurlers at this level.  

AL-Only: Could be a huge win, or a big-time failure in this setup. What is your risk/tolerance? You need to ask yourself that question before you draft Buchholz. Are you willing to invest in a guy who could just as easily throw 140 innings as 70, or post an ERA of 3.00 or 4.00? Everyone is rosterable in this format, but just make sure you don’t go all in with Buchholz.

To see where Buchholz ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).