2016 MLB Player Profile: Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin is left-handed. He is 26 years old. He agreed to a 1-year, $2.525 million deal to avoid arbitration with the D’backs this offseason. He’s also talented. He had his ascent to success limited by Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2014 season and limited him to just 16 starts in 2015. He should be read to return to the 200-inning level he reached in 2013 in the coming season. What type of game will he bring with him?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

2009: Drafted in the second round in the 2009 MLB Entry Draft. Threw 46.1 innings at Rookie ball going 4-2 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

2010: Pitched at Low and High-A ball tossing 144.2 innings over 28 starts. He won 13 games with four loses while posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

2011: Spent the entire season at Double-A. Corbin made 26 starts going 9-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 160.1 innings.

2012: Made 13 total starts at Double and Triple-A. He went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 79.1 innings.

2015: Made four starts in the minors with a 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 17 innings.

TOTAL: 32-17, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 K/BB over 447.2 innings

MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

2012: Appeared in 22 games as a rookie making 17 starts. He went just 6-8 though with a poor 4.54 ERA. His WHIP was 1.33, his K/9 was 7.23 and he lasted 107.0 innings.

2013: Had a strong campaign going 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 32 starts lasting 208.1 innings. He also threw three complete games while striking out 7.69 batters per nine innings.

2014: Didn’t throw a pitch that counted as he missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

2015: Returned to make 16 starts going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 85 innings. Upped his K-rate to 8.26 per nine and dropped his walk rate as well.

THE STRIKEOUT

Corbin struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings as a minor leaguer. The number predictably dropped a bit in his move to the big leagues as it currently sits at 7.69 over 400.1 innings with the D’backs. Since the 2012 season the league average for strikeouts it 7.59 per nine. It’s obvious his mark is only slightly better than average but it’s also true that the league mark is buoyed by all those dominating arms out of the bullpen. So let’s turn back to the starter. How many starting pitchers, minimum 162 innings last season, had a K/9 rate over 7.69? The answer is just 39 men, so the K-rate for Corbin is a bit more exciting that it seems at first blush. It’s also intriguing that his K/9 rate was 8.26 last season.

As for his swinging strike rate… Corbin owns a career mark of 10.2 percent which is just slightly above the league average of 9.5 percent. The mark has been above that career rate in his last two seasons at 10.7 and 10.8 percent. That rate obviously supports his K/9 rate.

THE WALK

Corbin walked an average of 2.4 batters per nine in the minors. He’s been a bit better than that through three MLB seasons with a mark of 2.16. His three year high is 2.33 and, impressively, the mark was a career best 1.80 per nine last season in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As we are all aware, the last aspect a pitcher often recovers post-surgery is his control. That’s what makes the dart throwing that Corbin produced last season impressive.

If we put together his strikeout and walk rates we find him the owner of a 3.56 K/BB ratio as a big leaguer. If you recall, his mark as a minor league was 3.52. It is who he is, and it’s a strong level. There were only 25 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title in 2015 that could match that 3.56 mark of Corbin.

THE BATTED BALL

Corbin induces grounders. For his career his GB-rate is 46.4 percent. In each of his three seasons the mark has been at least 45.7 percent. That means in three seasons the mark has been between 45.7 and 46.9 percent. I like that a lot. Last season 34 pitchers bettered Corbin’s 46.4 percent career mark.

Corbin doesn’t allow many fly balls. His 30.8 percent career fly ball rate is below the league average of 34 percent.

Add the two previous categories together and we’re left with a fella who owns a strong 1.51 GB/FB ratio.

Corbin allows more line drives than you would like to see. In fact, his 22.8 percent line drive rate is well above the league average of 20 percent. Moreover, his line drive rate has been at least 22.2 percent each season suggesting that he’s “earned” it.

For his career, since he doesn’t allow a ton of fly balls, he’s below the league average with a HR/9 mark of 0.94. He owns an 11.4 HR/FB ratio as well.

Corbin has a .302 career batting average on balls in play meaning his mark is just a tick above the league average BABIP of .302.

THE RATIOS

Corbin owns a 3.75 ERA for his career.

Note that Corbin owns a career left on base percentage of 75.0 percent. The league average is 70 percent, though every year a handful of arms might reach 80 percent. Not impossible that Corbin could maintain that rate but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that repeating the 78 percent rate he posted last season is highly unlikely given that only two pitchers in baseball posted a mark of 78 percent in 2014 and in 2015. They are Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. It’s almost certain that the rate will fall for Corbin in 2016.

Speaking of his ERA, let’s take a quick look at SIERA and xFIP. Here are the marks for his three seasons.

Add up all that data and it becomes pretty clear what expectations should be in the ERA column in 2016 and that is slightly better than his career ERA.

Corbin owns a 1.23 WHIP.

As mentioned above he doesn’t beat himself with the walk. He gets a good deal of grounders, but that can lead to a bit of an elevated WHIP as grounders are more likely to end up as hits than do fly balls. Nothing major mind you, but something to think about. Note he posted a 1.27 WHIP last season.

THE SPLITS

A split to know about occurs in Corbin’s work at home and on the road. Here are his career numbers.

Home: 13-10, 2.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .246 BAA over 34 starts

Away: 13-11, 4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .270 BAA over 36 starts

He’s clearly been much more efficient at home.

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Corbin is young, healthy, a lefty and stable. He also pitches pretty well at home, despite pitching in a hitter friendly environment, though he still needs to pick things up on the road. He isn’t a big strikeout arm but he should be pretty darn solid in that category and he doesn’t beat himself with the walk. Add in a good heaping of ground balls and we’ve been breaking down a pretty solid arm for 2016.

10-team Mixed: He slots in as a 5/6 starter in this format. The overall skill set is strong without being elite, and though healthy I would personally feel better if he were to have another full season under his belt before I went all in on the lefty. Not going elite on us is Corbin, but stable with skills that bring comfort.

12-team Mixed: An ideal fifth starter type. Given that he isn’t coming off a big season one would think the push for his services wouldn’t be over the top on draft day. I don’t think there’s much room for growth with Corbin, but 190+ innings with the skills he possesses could easily allow him to better the draft day cost.

15-team Mixed: A nice target, in a league of this size folks will likely be willing to take more risks on draft day. Corbin is just the type of pitcher that folks will be targeting – young, likely a bit off the radar and cheaper than he should be. That might cause some to jump in and take Corbin as a potential fourth starter. He could easily live up to that billing, but I would much prefer to slot him in as my 5^th starter.

NL-Only: The grounders, lack of walks, and solid strikeout totals paint Corbin as the type of young arm to follow. He’s also had Tommy John surgery already, so that is likely out of the way for the foreseeable future. Corbin is a third starter type in this format, one that I would like to bolster with two higher level arms that I felt very secure with.

To see where Corbin ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).