2016 MLB Player Profile: Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana came up as a switch hitting catcher with power and the ability to rack up the free passes. He no longer catches, he’s now solely eligible at first base, but he still knows how to take a walk. He also plays nearly every day which helps him to be very productive in the counting categories. His batting average has never come around, and that dings him, but he’s still a very productive/consistent performer at the dish as he enters his 30 year old season in 2016.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

*Average is per 162 games played.

THE APPROACH

*Highlight: Santana has produced an OBP of at least .350 each of the past five years. Only three other men, minimum of 502 plate appearances a season, have done that.

I always thought Santana would be a solid contributor in the batting average category as over the course of seven seasons in the minors he hit .290. He knew how to take a walk, seemed to understand the strike zone, and I had him pegged as a .270 hitter who I always thought could push .300 in one magical season. It just hasn’t happened though as he’s hit .245 to this point of his career. He’s hit .231 in each of the last two seasons and has hit better than .255 just one time in his five full seasons in the majors.

So why does he fail to produce a batting average?

Carlos still knows how to take a walk. Each of the last five seasons Santana has walked at least 91 times. He is the only player in baseball who has done that.

The last two seasons his walk total has been 113 and 108. He is the only man in baseball who has walked 108 times the past two seasons.

All of that walking helps to offset his strikeout totals. Each of the last five seasons he’s been over 100 Ks, though only once has he been over 125 (133 in 201).

Add the two numbers together and you end up with Santana posting a 0.87 BB/K ratio for his career and at least a mark of 0.85 the past five seasons. Amongst players with at least 2,000 plate appearances the past five seasons that mark of 0.85 is the 9^th best mark in baseball.

All of that is great. However…

Santana has a mere .271 BABIP mark for his career. Only once has the mark been over .278 (it was .301 in 2013). Don’t expect it to change.

Santana owns a 19.0 percent line drive rate for his career. Only once in his five full seasons has the mark been over 19.5 percent (21.8 in 2013). Don’t expect it to change.

Stable he is. Unfortunately, that means no batting average growth.

THE POWER

*Highlight: Five years in a row Santana has hit at least 18 homers. Only 40 other men in baseball have done that.

Santana has hit 20 homers three times in five season with two of those seasons being 27 home runs.

Santana owns a 38.5 percent fly ball rate. He’s been under that rate in three of the last four seasons, but only once in those four campaigns has the mark dipped below 37 percent. That’s six seasons with only once under 37 percent.

Santana has a 13.6 percent HR/FB ratio for his career. Each season of his career the mark has been at least 11.5 percent. Twice the mark has crested 16 percent. Santana pulls the ball an awful lot. Last season the mark was 53.3 percent. His career rate? Try 53.3 percent.

Isolated Power is a friend of Santana as well. For his career he owns a .188 mark. A mark of .200 is impressive, and Santana is right below that for his career.

THE PRODUCTION – RBI/RUNS

*Highlight: Santana has produced at least 74 RBI each of the past five years. Only 19 others in baseball have accomplished that feat.

I really don’t need to note much else than that highlight in this section, do I? Santana is very productive here. Never under 74 or over 85 the last five seasons. That’s impressive.

THE HEALTH

Santana has appeared in 152 or more games in 4-of-5 seasons. The one year he missed he appeared in 143 games.

The last five years 10 players have appeared in at least 143 games each season.

The last five years two players have appeared in 152 games five times (Adrian Gonzalez and Robinson Cano). Only 15 players have appeared in at least 152 times four of the five years.

Santana plays every day. That helps him to be a consistent performer in the homers, RBI and runs scored column each year.

BATTING ORDER POSITIONING

A recent article in the Cleveland Plain Dealer relays a bunch of rather interesting data about Indians’ Manager Terry Francona and his lineup plans for 2016. Chief amongst those plans is that he’s giving serious consideration toward batting Carlos Santana – lead off. He’s not fast and looks nothing like a leadoff man (5’11”, 215 lbs), but he knows to get on base. As Francona pointed out, Santana owns a strong .365 OBP. Over the last five seasons only Joey Votto has more walks (521 to 502). "The one thing I've thought about is Santana leading off," said Francona. "It's only a thought. Because of his skill set, I think he'd be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. I know it's a little unique. Maybe out of the box, and you've got to have somebody who can hit cleanup." Santana has hit cleanup more times than any other spot in the order, 454 of his 804 career games, but the club added Mike Napoli this offseason and he could take the cleanup mantle. Santana has never hit first, though he has hit second 35 times.

Looking at the Indians current roster, the club could easily go with Francisco Lindor or Jason Kipnis batting leadoff and I have to think that is ultimately what they will do, but Santana does own intriguing on-base percentage skills if the Indians want to go in that direction.
 

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Santana is what he is. That’s a productive batter, with skills that make him a decent play in fantasy leagues (he’s worth a bit more in points leagues that value more of the overall skills he brings to the table). As merely first base eligible at the moment, Santana is kind of just a guy at the corner infield spot, though one the is incredibly consistent if not an upper echelon performer.

10-team Mixed: He’s a bench option. His lack of speed and batting average upside leave him as an extremely boring selection. At the same time, his stability makes him a better choice, in my mind, than a guy like Mark Teixeira or Ryan Zimmerman.

12-team Mixed: Not a starter at first base, but Santana could slot in as a solid corner infield play. Depends what your needs are. Maybe you turn to an Adam Lind who has a better batting average floor, or perhaps you turn to Chris Carter tin the hopes of tapping his massive power. As explained above, if you’re looking for stability in the counting categories though Santana is likely to be a selection that you won’t regret making.

15-team Mixed: Me likey Santana as a corner infield option here. The third base position really doesn’t offer too many extremely palatable options outside the top-10, so chances are if you don’t spend an early selection on a third sacker in this format you will likely end up with a rather boring hot corner play. Instead of turning to another one at corner infield I’d look to first base with Santana being a prime target of mine.

AL-Only: Health equals counting category production. Remember that. As I’ve laid out, few are on the field more than Santana, and few offer the consistency he brings year to year either. You know the weaknesses so you can work around them. Not sexy, but slow and steady can still win this race.

To see where Santana ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).