2016 MLB Player Profile: Edinson Volquez

Edinson Volquez is 32 years old. He pitches for the World Champion Royals. He’s in the second year of a 2-year, $20 million deal. That’s all the general stuff. Dig deeper and you will find a righty who has great stuff that can lead to seven shutout innings any time he takes the bump. He can also fail to locate the strike zone and struggle to make it through five innings any time he takes the hill. In his 12^th league season, should he be counted on for fantasy success?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

He’s pitched a long time, so let’s just do a table. Sound good?

THE STRIKEOUT

Volquez has a nice strikeout rate for his career at 7.89 per nine. However, as you can see, he’s failed to reach that mark in any of the last three seasons. Moreover, he’s failed to reach the league average the past two seasons as the mark has fallen into the six’s. That ain’t good, especially when we’re talking about a 32 year old hurler.

Volquez still throws his fastball as hard as always. His career heater is 93.4 mph according to PITCHf/x, and last season the rate was even higher at 93.8 mph. He threw the pitch a bit less at 51 percent last season, slightly down from his 54.5 career mark (he does throw his 4-seam fastball less than he used to, that much is clear, but his overall heater usage rate remains stable). He also threw his curveball 24 percent of the time, the same rate he’s basically thrown it the last four seasons. His 25 percent change up rate was a three year high but only 0.5 percent of his career rate of throwing he pitch. The distribution of pitches doesn’t explain the drop in strikeouts.

Volquez just isn’t generating swings and misses like he used to. Each year from 2009 to 2012 he generated a swinging strike rate of at least 10 percent. The last three seasons he’s failed to generate a mark above 9.5 percent meaning the least three seasons his swinging strike rate is below the league average. There is no data that suggests his K-rate is likely to return to his career level this coming season.

THE WALK

Volquez always walks too many fools. In an 11-year career he hasn’t once had a walk rate per nine of less than the league average. The last two seasons his BB/9 has been 3.32 and 3.23. Those two marks are the two best of his career but still well above the league average (2.82 walks per nine). Because of the reduced walk rate he actually posted his best K/BB rate since 2008. It was still below the league average at a mere 2.15. It’s not a good number to be the owner of.

THE RATIOS

Volquez has a 4.29 ERA for his career. His mark has been well below that the last two years at 3.04 and 3.55. Not to get all old school on your, but realize that in 2011 and 2013, both seasons, he posted an identical ERA of 5.71. That means that Volquez, over the last five years, has as many seasons with an ERA under 3.60 as over 5.60. #JustAThought

Here are the ERA numbers to know the past two years for Volquez.

While his ERA the past two seasons, the raw number, paints him as a very successful arm, both SIERA and xFIP paint him as a below average performer the past two years. Let’s add a third ERA type measure that points to Volquez having an ERA the last two seasons that he hasn’t really earned. According to Fangraphs, Volquez had an ERA- of 86 and 87 the last two seasons (ERA- is the pitchers ERA adjusted for home ballpark and the league). That means the past two seasons that Volquez ERA has been 13 and 14 percent below the league average, despite what his raw ERA purports to suggest.

As for WHIP, all those walks usually take a toll on Volquez. His career WHIP of 1.43 is awful. Over the last six seasons he’s bettered that mark only two times. It’s been the last two seasons at 1.23 and 1.31, but in an 11-year career Volquez has had a WHIP under 1.30 ONE TIME. You can’t count on him being anything other than a league average performer in WHIP – at best.

THE BATTED BALL

Volquez has a career .297 BABIP that is totally league average. Only once in the last six seasons has the mark been below .290.

Volquez allowed a line drive rate of 21.1 percent last season. His career rate is 20.0 percent. Only once in the last four years has the mark been under 21.1 percent.

Volquez posted a fly ball rate of 32.9 percent last season. The last two seasons, in fact, he’s posted identical marks of 32.9 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Volquez posted a ground ball rate of 46.0 percent last season. In two of the last four seasons the mark has been under 48 percent while in the other two seasons the mark has been just above 50 percent. For his career he owns a 48.1 percent mark.

Last season he posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.40. That was a six year low. Still, pretty much dead on his 1.51 career mark.

Volquez had an 8.0 percent HR/F ratio last season. That mark was a career best matching the mark he posted in 2008. It’s an acceptable mark for a guy who owns a 10.9 percent career ratio, but it should tick up a tad this coming season.

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Volquez is an oft impressive pitcher who too frequently loses control of the strike zone. A one time impressive strikeout artist, he no longer brings that talent to the bump. We’ve also seen how his ERA the past two years isn’t deserved, and his WHIP is almost always worse than the league average. Be careful not to overrate his World Series performance.

10-team Mixed: Not interested. League average ratios and less than the league average K-rate makes him undraftable.

12-team Mixed: Barely draftable. I wouldn’t draft him if truth be told. If you do, make sure you’ve got the arms to lean on in the ratio categories, and do yourself a favor and realize he’s really nothing more than an SP7.

15-team Mixed: A spot starter type.

AL-Only: I guess you can draft him. As you can tell, he’s a league average arm. Someone will take him in this format of course, but it’s likely best if you let someone else take the plunge. The uncertainty with his ratios, and the fact that some might buy into the apparent success he had last season, will make him more expensive than my tastes would permit.

To see where Volquez ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).