2016 MLB Player Profile: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce is on the cusp of being traded (he was nearly dealt to the Blue Jays before the deal fell apart). The 29 year old slugger is due $12.5 million this year and has a $13 million club option for 2017 (it includes a $1 million buyout). A consistent run producer for years, the lefty slugger has fallen on hard times the last couple of seasons. Is a rebound effort in 2016 possible, likely or unlikely? We shall explore.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

Bruce has hit for a long time since being the 12^th overall selection in the 2005 Entry Draft, so let’s just do a table. Sound good?

*Average is per 162 games played.

THE POWER

Each of the first six years of his career Bruce hit at least 21 homers, and those six seasons included two years in which he failed to reach 415 at-bats. In fact, the first four seasons in which he racked up 500 at-bats he socked 25 homers. Moreover, note that from 2011 to 2013 Bruce hit at least 30 bombs each season. The last two seasons he’s averaged just 22 homers. It’s that the level that should be expected at this point? Let’s look at his homers per at-bat total.

There is no debate that the power has dropped off a bit the last two seasons. Why is the question?

You kinda, sorta, need to look at 2014 as a different season. Bruce has surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his left knee. He returned to action May 23^rd and from that point to July 4^th he hit a mere seven homers over 243 at-bats. He clearly just wasn’t right physically. Can’t total dismiss the effort, but I think we can minimize it as he did somewhat rebound in 2015.

Even if we remove 2014, his 2015 season was still a little down. His .434 SLG from ’15 was the second worst mark of his career while the HR/AB rate was also the second worst of his career. Still, he hit 35 doubles and posted an Isolated Power mark of .209 in 2015 that was just six points below his career mark of .215.

There is another concern. Though his fly ball rate returned to his 2011-13 levels last season at 44.2 percent of batted balls, his HR/FB ratio went down for the third straight season.

2012: 18.7 percent
2013: 17.1 percent
2014: 15.3 percent
2015: 13.3 percent

That’s a distressing trend.

Here are his average fly ball distances the past few years.

2011: 286.8 feet
2012: 292.4 feet
2013: 293.5 feet
2014: 284.6 feet
2015: 285.6 feet

It too is down a bit the past two seasons.

Not doom and gloom time but it should be obviously by this point that a 25 homer season is slightly more likely than a 30 homer season.

THE AVERAGE / APPROACH

It’s not good.

A career .248 hitter, Bruce has underperformed the league average since his career began (.262). Only once in the last five seasons has he hit above .256. The last two seasons things have become dire as he’s hit .217 and .226. His overall mark the past two seasons is .222 which is the second worst mark in baseball for qualifiers (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). Only Chris Carter was worse at .215. Can the number rebound for Bruce?

For his career he owns a 19.5 percent line drive rate. The last two seasons the mark is 19.6 percent. It’s obviously been the same the last two years.

For his career Bruce owns a 34.3 percent hard hit rate. The last two seasons the mark has been 34.3 percent.

For his career Bruce has a 45.2 pull rate. The last two seasons the mark has been 47.7 percent.

For his career Bruce has a 0.91 GB/FB ratio. The last two seasons the mark is 1.02.

For his career Bruce owns a 0.38 BB/K ratio. The last two season the mark is 0.35.

All three of those rates are within the realm of the expected. However…

For his career Bruce owns a .287 BABIP. The last two seasons the mark is .259.

Seems odd that only his BABIP is going down, while the rest of the approach is pretty similar, yet he’s lost .030 points in batting average the past two seasons. I’m not suggesting that Bruce is going to provide some massive jump in batting average in 2016. I’m merely suggesting that it’s reasonable to posit that he could return to his career average of .248 in 2016.

THE RUNS

Bruce has never scored 90 runs.

He has scored 80 runs four times.

He’s scored at least 71 runs each of the past six seasons. Only 26 men total, 25 others, can match that run of Bruce.

THE RUNS BATTED IN

Bruce has one season of 100 RBI.

Bruce has three seasons of 90 RBI.

In four of the last five seasons Bruce has driven in at least 87 runs. Only one man in baseball has produced 87 RBI each of the last five seasons – Adrian Gonzalez. Only six other men, besides Bruce and A-Gone, have produced 87 RBI in 4-of-5 seasons.

THE SPEED

How many of you are aware that Bruce has stolen 21 bases the last two seasons? That is just six less than Mike Trout. That’s a difference of three steals a season on average. Another way to say it. Mike Trout has stolen 0.5 bases a month more than Bruce the past two seasons. Think about that for a moment.

Bruce isn’t going to steal 20 bases. In fact, he’s not going to steal 15, but a run to 10 is possible. He’s averaged it the past two seasons despite dealing with some health woes and missing a total of 30 games of action. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values,  

rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Jay Bruce is a compiler. He’s not a breakout candidate. His batting average will be league average at best. That’s the fact, Jack. But it’s also true that he’s a consistent run producer, run scorer and home run hitter. He’s also a bit more adept on the base paths than you likely imagined. He is what he is, and that’s a solid performer, albeit one with warts.

10-team Mixed: Bruce is a no average, power bat who consistently is a solid run producer. He even steals a few bases each year. He’s an ideal option as a 5^th outfielder if your league sleeps on him, but if you have to reach a bit and make him your fourth – I don’t have an issue with that.

12-team Mixed: Look at your roster in the middle rounds. If you need power, guys like Mark Trumbo, Ryan Zimmerman and Bruce will be available. All come with batting average risk (less for Zimmerman), while Trumbo and Bruce are more of the poor average / all power options. Judge how your draft is going before taking a chance on guys like this, though if you’ve built your team with early batting average stability the ability to take a power bat in the middle rounds should be a direction you feel comfortable in turning towards. Bruce is a 4^th outfield option with power upside.

15-team Mixed: My ideal outfielder four in this setup. I’ve laid out the strengths and weaknesses of Bruce above, and my plan is usually to build in that batting average stability at the top which affords me the option to take a chance on somewhat limited power bats like Bruce. Gotta like his consistent run production as well, even if all his numbers aren’t even within shouting distance of the elite.

NL-Only: Bruce has appeared in at least 155 games in 4-of-5 seasons (the time he missed he appeared in 137 games). Since he’s always on the field he’s a solid, across the board contributor in the counting categories, and that means a lot in league specific setups. I would be more likely to take on the batting average risk for strong production in three categories and sneaky production in a fourth (steals).

To see where Bruce ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).