Rick Porcello stands 6’5”, has tons of sink on his pitches and has a bushel of innings under his belt for a guy who turned 27 in December. Every year people seem enticed by his skills set. Every year I relate why I just don’t see it. Every year people seem enticed by…

Do I see “it” this year?

WORKLOAD

Just 27 years old, Porcello is rather durable. Of course, even that comes with a caveat.

Porcello has qualified for the ERA title, meaning he’s thrown at least 162 innings, each of the last seven seasons. Only 12 men have done that.

At the same time, Porcello has thrown 185 innings once in seven years. Read that again. Porcello gets lots of press for being durable but is one season seven years over 185 innings durable?

Here are his innings pitched marks.

2009: 170.2 innings
2010: 162.2 innings
2011: 182 innings
2012: 176.1 innings
2013: 177 innings
2014: 204.2 innings
2015: 172 innings

In a word, his durability factor is – overblown.

STRIKEOUTS

Porcello had the best strikeout rate of his career last season. Hurrah. As you will see, there’s not much else to like here.

Porcello had a 7.80 K/9 mark last season. That’s merely the second time in seven years that he’s – get this – struck out 5.70 batters per nine. Read that again. Two of the last three years he’s had a K/9 rate of 7.20, but in 2014 the mark was 5.67. Can you trust the 7+ mark of a guy who splits those seven seasons with a 5.67 K/9 mark in ’14 when he also owns a 5.81 per nine mark for his career? I know I don’t. Not only does logic and the overwhelming amount of data suggest that he’s not close to being the 7.8 per nine guy that he was last season, there’s also the swinging strike rate to consider. Let’s take a look at that category.

Porcello owns a 7.4 swinging strike rate for his career. In seven seasons he’s been below 7.4 three times and above it four times. In two of the last three seasons the mark has been 8.7 and 8.5 (2013 and 2015). The league average for swinging strike rate is about 9.5 percent. Let me say it another way. He’s never once been league average. Not close.

More as to why he’s not holding on to the 2015 K-rate.

His first pitch strike percentage last year was 60.5 percent. His career mark is 60.5 percent.

The number of pitches he threw that were swung at last season was 47.4 percent. His career rate is 46.2 percent.

He didn’t get batters to chase more outside the zone. Batters swung at 31.1 percent of the pitchers he threw outside the zone in 2015. His career mark is 30.9 percent.

He’s not replicating his 2015 mark in strikeouts.

WALKS

Porcello does not beat himself. Over his career his walk rate is an excellent 2.18. The last two seasons the mark is 1.80 per nine and 1.99 per nine. He should maintain at least his career level.

BATTED BALL

Dude is a big time ground ball arm. It’s always been his calling card. Well at least it was until 2015.

For his career Porcello owns a 51.3 percent ground ball rate.

Each of his first five seasons the ground ball rate was over 50 percent.

Each of the last two seasons his ground ball rate has been under 50 percent. Here are his ground ball rates the last three seasons.

2013: 55.3 percent
2014: 49.0 percent
2015: 45.7 percent

Yes, 2015 was his worst season in the ground ball rate – ever. He doesn’t miss enough bats for that trend to be a good thing.

Check out the drastic dip in his GB/FB rate the last two years.

2012: 2.36
2013: 2.34
2014: 1.69
2015: 1.40

That’s not good, at all.

There’s also this.

Each of the last four seasons Porcello has exceeded his career line drive rate (20.4 percent). Here are the splits.

2009-11: 17.9 percent
2012-15: 22.3 percent

Batters are hitting fewer grounders and more liners off Porcello. That’s not good.

Speaking of that, take a look at the BABIP beating Porcello takes (more grounders end up as hits than fly balls). Porcello has a .313 career BABIP. He’s been over that mark in 4-of-5 seasons (the only time he was under his career rate was 2014 with a mark of .298). The mark has been over .330 in 2-of-4 seasons as well.

HOMERS

For his career Porcello owns a 0.98 HR/9 mark. Makes sense since he does generate those grounders. However, some concern here might be warranted. In 2-of-3 seasons, the two years he ramped up the K-rate, his HR/F ratio has been over 14 percent (2013 and 2015). Last season since he allowed more fly balls than ever before, and had that poor HR/FB ratio, his HR/9 swelled to 1.31, obviously a career worst mark.

RATIOS

For his career Porcello owns a 4.39 ERA.
The league mark since 2009 is 4.22.
He’s worse than league average.

For his career Porcello owns a 1.36 WHIP.
The league mark since 2015 is 1.34.
He’s worse than the league average.

More data.

In seven years Porcello has an ERA under four twice.
In seven years Porcello has an ERA under 3.95 once.
Let this data wash over you.
Breath it in.
Think about it.

Now on to WHIP.

Only twice in seven years has Porcello posted a WHIP under 1.34.
Only once has Porcello posted a WHIP under 1.28.
Let this data wash over you.
Breath it in.
Think about it.

PITCH TYPES

In 2015, according to PITCHf/x data, Porcello threw more 4-seam fastballs than he had since 2009 (4-seam fastballs are straighter and is thrown the hardest of any pitch). Here is the mark the last three seasons and for his career.

2013: 22.2 percent
2014: 28.7 percent
2015: 35.5 percent
Career: 29.0 percent

Speaking of the 4-seamer, it’s more often taken deep than a well thrown 2-seam fastball. You remember hos Porcello’s homer rate exploded last season, right?

He also threw fewer 2-seam fastballs than ever before (2-seamers are often termed sinkers). Here is the mark the last three seasons and for his career.

2013: 39.2 percent
2014: 30.0 percent
2015: 29.8 percent
Career: 36.7 percent

The results, as you’ve seen, were not positive. Other than an increase in his strikeout rate, everything else was the same or, more often, worse than normal. He should rethink that decision.

 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, 

rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Porcello just isn’t that good. He’s a ground ball hurler who isn’t creating as many grounders as he used to. He’s striking a few more guys out than “normal” but there is nothing to suggest he should be profiled as even an average arm in the K-category. He also isn’t nearly as durable as given credit for, and those ratios of his – league average is his goal.

10-team Mixed: Nothing but a streaming option. Look for him to be facing a righty heavy lineup if you role him out there (career vs righties: .263/.305/.388).

12-team Mixed: You can draft him in this format. I will not. He simply doesn’t strike batters out at a high enough clip to really intrigue me, and his ratios in 6-of-7 seasons haven’t even been league average. Just not the profile you should be looking at.

15-team Mixed: Pretty sure you know what this is going to say. When you take a pitcher at this level, you should be aiming for upside (think Drew Hutchison or Anibal Sanchez). Porcello is just a guy. Really. Did you read the Player Profile?

AL-Only: He does average 12 wins a season over the course of his career, so that’s something. He won’t be expensive so you can throw a dart if you want. It’s always possible he keeps the strikeouts up and the grounders return – even if it’s not likely.

 

To see where Porcello ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).