On the surface, 2015 was far from a banner year for Andrew Cashner of the Padres. He won a mere six games, lost more than half of his starts (16 of 31), saw his ERA rise to 4.34 and his WHIP to an unacceptable 1.44. So why is it that I’m still suggesting you buy on Cashner this year? Of course I’m going to lay out those reasons in what follows.

STRIKEOUTS

As a reliever in 2012 Cashner had a 10.10 K/9 mark. He then entered the rotation in 2013 and saw the rate tumble down to 6.58 per nine. He followed that up with a 6.79 K/9 mark in 2014. Last season the number rebounded up to 8.04 per nine. That’s not an exciting number per se, but it’s a strong number and one that his talent dictates he could hold on to. Flipside, his swinging strike rate last season was 8.2 percent, the same as the 8.2 percent mark that he had in 2013-14. That mark is below the league average of about 9.5 percent and suggests that growth isn’t happening while some pullback is likely with his strikeout rate (for more on this measure see Swinging Strike Ratios in the 2016 MLB Draft Guide).

WALKS

While his K-rate went up, so did Andrew’s walk rate. After being under 2.45 walks per nine in 2013 and 2014 that number peaked to 3.22 last season. The result was a four-year low in his K/BB ratio (2.50). Overall he posted a four-year low with a 48.8 percent rate of pitches for strikes though his first pick strike percentage was 61.7 percent, the second best mark of any season in his career. He got ahead, he just didn’t locate well enough thereafter.  

BATTED BALLS

Cashner had a 0.93 HR/FB ratio last season. That’s below the league average of 1.10, but elevated for Cashner after the mark was under 0.65 each of the previous two seasons. Check out the elevated HR/FB ratio as an explanation. After being under 8.2 percent in 2013 and 2014 the number climbed to 11.5 percent in ‘15. That’s above his 10.00 percent career mark. Oddly, his homer rate went up even though his fly ball rate was 29.9 percent, just 1/10th above his career mark.

Speaking of batted ball type… Cashner always generates grounders. Last season the mark was 47.4 percent, a very strong mark. Still, it was a career worst. Moreover, his ground ball rate has gone down four straight seasons.

2011: 59.3 percent
2012: 53.3 percent
2013: 52.5 percent
2014: 48.3 percent
2015: 47.4 percent

Is that a concern? OK, a bit. However, the mark he posted last season is still plenty high enough to be an effective total and one that plays. He’s posted a GB/FB ratio of at least 1.47 each year of his career, another strong mark.

For his career Cashner has a league average type of BABIP of .292. He’s been under that mark in 2-of-3 seasons. Last season the mark surged to .330. It should regress in 2016.

LEFT ON BASE

The league average is about 70 percent. Pitchers tend to regress to this level over the course of time (though of course some hurlers continually exceed that level). For his career Cashner is at 70.8 percent. Last season the mark dipped to a mere 65.6 percent. Odds are in his favor that the number will improve this season which will, of course, lower his ERA.

PITCH TYPE

The following data is taken from PITCHf/x.

In 2014 Cashner threw his 2-seam fastball 36.5 percent of the time
In 2015 Cashner threw his 2-seam fastball less, just 27.2 percent of the time.

In 2014 his 2-seam fastball resulted in the following slash line: .222/.270/.327.
In 2015 his 2-seam fastball resulted in the following slash line: .332/.404/.483.

Yikes.

Rather amazing was the difference in the homer rate. In 2014 he allowed a 3.3-percent HR/FB rate on the pitch. That number went up nearly EIGHT times to 24.1 percent in 2015. That’s impossible. It’s just can’t happen even though it did.

Some further data.

His BABIP on the pitch went from .247 to .351

His line drive rate on the pitch went from 23.8 to 27.3 percent.

The wOBA on the pitch went from .266 to .386.

He lost five percent on his throwing the pitch for strike rate (down to 49.4 percent).

He threw the pitch 656 times with 191 of the pitches being a ball. That’s ball percentage of 29 percent. In 2015 he threw 844 pitches with 301 balls. His ball percentage went up to 35.7 percent.

He induced a swinging strike rate of 91 percent when batters swung at the pitch outside the zone in 2014. Last season the number dropped all the way to 73.6 percent.

All of that is hideous. A few positive notes on the pitch.

His K-rate only dropped six tenths (11.3 percent).

His swinging strike rate on the pitch went up from 3.2 to 5.2 percent.

His groundball rate on the pitch actually went up half a percent (56.3).

His fly ball rate dipped four percent to 16.5 percent.

The HR/FB ratio simply cannot stay as high as it was last season.

His BABIP simply cannot stay as high as it was last season.

His line drive rate simply cannot stay as high as it was last season.

A 2-seam fastball, by the way, is also called a sinker by many (a 4-seam fastball is a “straight” or “riding” fastball that is thrown up in the zone, whereas a 2-seam fastball is thrown low with a lot of movement). Speaking of movement, here are a couple of Brooks Baseball charts showing the movement on the pitch the last two seasons. First, the horizontal movement.

As you can tell, there was actually a bit more consistency in the horizontal movement category than in 2015, though the pitch clearly didn't move quite as much as in '14.

Now the vertical chart.

The pitch was much more consistent in 2015, in terms of vertical movement, than it was in 2014.  

Finally, the location of the pitch.

Do you see anything substantially different from 2014 to 2015? I don’t either.

BALLPARK

Petco isn’t as pitcher friendly as it used to be. Still it was a fairly neutral park for hurlers though according to Park Factors.

Petco was 20th in runs.

Petco was 10th in homers.

Petco was 16th in hits.

Petco was 19th in doubles.

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

 

 

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: He won’t cost anything in this setup. Don’t reach, you won’t have to, but as your final starter, I have little issue rostering him. Most won’t look his way making him a solid reserve round addition.

12-team Mixed: If you’re in an auction league he’s a prime target. If you’re in a snake draft you will have to judge the room, take their temperature if you will. I would think that those of you in leagues with more experienced competitors would have to be on top of things with Cashner, whereas those of you in a league with less experience folks will be able to wait an awfully long time to roster Cashner. After all, his ratios were terrible last season while his record was brutally poor.

15-team Mixed: I’m targeting Cashner here. His combination of stuff, park, strikeouts and grounders, when factoring in his cost, make him an ideal option in my mind.

NL-Only: I would anticipate Cashner being a great buy low option. Folks in this setup are trying to project, shooting for the moon if you will. Others will speculate on guys like Jaime Garcia or Kenta Maeda. Let them. As noted above, Cashner is someone I like. So should you. 

 

To see where Cashner ranks amongst starting pitchers take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).