AGE/EXPERIENCE

The Tigers’ Nick Castellanos was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 Entry Draft. Coming into the 2013 season MLB.com and Baseball America listed him as a top-25 prospect in baseball. Both sources also listed him as a top-25 option in 2014.

In 410 minor league games Nick went .303/.359/.445 hitting well even if the power wasn’t quite up to expectations. After going .276-18-76 with 81 runs scored in 134 games at Triple-A in 2013 he was called up to the big leagues. Needless to say he came to the Tigers with a lot of excitement as many believed he might become an all-star third baseman. It’s fair to note that he doesn’t turn 24 until March so that could still happen. Here are the ages of some third sackers in their “breakout” seasons.

Mike Schmidt: 24 years old

Matt Williams: 24 years old

Wade Boggs: 25 years old

Craig Nettles: 25 years old

Edgar Martinez: 27 years old

The bottom line is that, despite what we’re used to seeing the last decade, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that Castellanos could still break out – he’s not too old for it to happen. Don’t overlook that the as yet to turn 24 year old Castellanos already has two full seasons under his belt. Many big leaguers who have gone on to be stars haven’t accomplished that feat.

PERFORMANCE

Just cause Castellanos has talent, pedigree and experience does not guarantee that he will bust loose in 2016, so let’s take a look at his skills to determine how likely an increase in production will occur.

Nick has 313 games of big league experience covering 1,192 plate appearances and 1,100 at-bats.

In that time his slash line is a decidedly barren .257/.304/.405.
The league average since 2013 is .255/.318/.399.

Yep, Castellanos has been a league average performer to this point.

Let’s go point-by-point.

1 – Nick has walked 75 times in his career. Kris Bryant walked 77 times last season. That’s not good for Nick. His inability to take a walk does nothing to enhance his profile and is one of the direct reasons that (a) his OBP is low and (b) that he’s failed to record more than 50 runs in his two full seasons despite more than 575 plate appearances each campaign.

2 – Castellanos has a bit of an issue with the punchout having struck out 140 and 152 times the last two seasons. With a K-rate of 25 percent in that time, it’s pretty obvious that we need better levels of contact from Nick. Check out that swinging strike rate. In each of the last two seasons the mark has been 13.9 percent. The league average is usually in the 9-10 percent range. Castellanos is obviously way off that rate. Unless he starts making better contact, and there is little to recommend that the chances of that occurring this season are high, then his batting average will likely languish where it has been the last two seasons.

3 – There is one potential bit of upside for Castellanos. He often hits the ball on the screws as they call it. Through 313 career games he owns a 25.5 percent line drive rate. That’s huge. Can he maintain that level? Highly unlikely. Could he post marks like the 23.3 he had last season? Answer there is, potentially yes. I say that because he also owns a .324 BABIP mark that he has been two points under, and two points above, the last two seasons. This is why cutting down on the swing and misses is so important. When Castellanos hits the ball he produces an awful lot of hard hit balls. He simply has to make better contact for that talent to result in a better batting average.

4 – Let’s talk pop for a minute.

Nick has hit 26 homers the past two seasons. An average of 13 homers a year is solid for a second baseman. It’s obviously subpar for a third sacker. Is there any hope of an increase here?

Nick hit seven homers in 135 games in 2011.

Nick hit 10 homers in 134 games in 2012.

Nick hit 18 homers in 134 games in 2013.

Then he moved to the big leagues and averaged 13 homers a season over two years.

Castellanos owns a .147 Isolated Power mark.
The league average is .144 since he began his career.

Castellanos has a 38.4 percent fly ball rate.
The league average is 34 percent.

Castellanos has an 8.3 percent HR/FB ratio.
The league average is 11 percent.

There just isn’t much here to lead anyone to believe a 20 homer season is coming.

 5 – Steals? He has two while being caught five times. Nothing to see here.

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

 

 

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: Castellanos, pedigree be damned, just doesn’t offer a skill set that should lead to him being drafted in this format. Well, you could draft him in the reserve rounds I guess, but despite the shiny lead in to this story the fact of the matter is that there doesn’t appear to be any growth in his skill set and that makes using him a 10-team league an unappealing option.

12-team Mixed: As a corner infield play, OK. Castellanos isn’t likely to move the needle at all in this format, but with just a modicum of growth his counting category production might rise to slightly better than replacement level. The key word being “might.” He’s not going to cost anything, so if you turn to him you won’t need to see a great performance to realize a profit based on your cost.

15-team Mixed: The best spot for Nick if you want to realize a return on your investment in mixed leagues. As noted above, there are no signs of growth here other than falling back on his “prospectness.” Could he go Mike Moustakas and have a season of note? Yes, that is possible, which is why he’s worth a look in a league this deep.

AL-Only: I’m interested here. Playing off comments in the other sections, it’s about cost with Castellanos. He’s not going to a be a top-5 option in this format on draft day. There might even be some scenarios where he isn’t a top-10 option. Regardless of where you take him, the cost will be negligible, and when you’re talking about throwing small dollars, or a mid-round selection at a guy who is locked in to daily playing time you should be interested if for no other reason than that player is likely to be productive in the counting categories.

To see where Castellanos ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).