Yovani Gallardo grew up in Texas rooting on the Rangers as he attended Trimble Tech High School (he arrived in the state in 1990 at the age of four). He now lives at Eagle Mountain Lake, Texas. With the trade from the Brewers to the Rangers he finds himself home. “I love it here. I’ve had a lot of memories growing up here and living here. It’s home for me and my family, my kids, my wife and everyone else.” Will that piece of mind allow Gallardo to have success in his first season in the American League?
THE MINORS
2004: Drafted in the 2nd round by the Brewers out of High School. Made eight starts at Rookie and Single-A ball going 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 26.2 innings.
2005: Made 26 appearances, 18 starts, at Single-A. Went 8-3 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 110 strikeouts over 121.1 innings.
2006: Pitched at High-A and Double-A going 11-5 with a 1.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 188 punchouts in 155 innings. Smoking.
2007: Ranked as the 16th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and 14th by Baseball Prospectus. Went 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 13 starts at Triple-A. Struck out 110 batters in just 77.2 innings. of work.
2008: Made three starts at Triple-A last 15.2 innings.
TOTALS: 27-13, 2.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.20 K/BB over 396.1 innings
THE MAJORS
2007: Made 17 starts and 20 appearances covering 110.1 innings. He won nine games against five loses as he struck out 8.24 batters per nine.
2008: Was able to make only four starts. He missed a month early on after having left knee surgery for a meniscus issue. He then re-injured the knee and required ACL surgery.
2009: Threw 185.2 innings over 30 starts. Won 13 games with a 3.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP an a career best 9.89 K/9 mark.
2010: Won 14 games with a 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 200 strikeouts over 185 innings.
2011: Seventeen victories, a career best, as he pitched 207.1 innings. He posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (career best) while striking out 207 batters.
2012: Went 16-9 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.00 K/9 mark over 204 innings.
2013: Made 31 starts going 12-10 with 180.2 innings pitched. His strikeout rate fell to 7.17 as his ERA rose to 4.18. Also posted a 1.36 WHIP.
2014: Strikeouts continued to tumble, down to 6.83 per nine, as he won only eight games. Posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 192.1 innings with the best walk rate of his career (2.53 per nine).
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THE SKILLS
So you're thinking 'why are you even bothering writing this Ray? Gallardo is losing strikeouts and moving to the American league. I want nothing to do with his fading talent.' Are you thinking that? If you are consider yourself lucky that you're taking the time to read this because I'm here to tell you there is still some talent to mine with Gallardo if you evaluate him properly.
Let's start with who Gallardo isn't.
Yovani Gallardo is not:
An elite arm.
An elite strikeout arm.
An elite ratio producer.
What is Gallardo?
He is durable.
Is that it?
DURABILITY
There's more than just durability to discuss with Gallardo, but let's start there. The last six seasons he's thrown at least 180-innings of pitches. I will be the first to admit I hear that and think - so what? But do you have any idea how many arms have tossed 180 frames each of the past six seasons? The list is a mere nine men long. That's it. They are: Justin Verlander, James Shields, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie, A.J. Burnett, Mark Buehrle and Gallardo. At least you know Yovani will be making 30-starts a year, and that durability should factor in to your opinion of him, at least a little bit.
Gallardo, because of the innings, often wins games. Last season he won just eight games breaking a 5-year run of at least 12 victories a season. Over the last six years though Gallardo has 80 victories. There are only 11 men in baseball who have more wins. Hey, it's something.
ERA/WHIP
Let's talk ratios for a moment.
Only once in his career has Gallardo had an ERA over 3.85 (it was 4.18 in 2013). In three of the last four seasons his ERA has been under his career mark of 3.69 including last season when his 3.51 ERA was a career best. How many knew last year was a career best effort for Gallardo? Even so, admittedly, the mark isn't at all exciting as it's barely better than the league average anymore (last year the major league mark was 3.74).
Gallardo owns a career 1.30 WHIP, smack on the league average for the duration of his eighth year career. At least he's been consistent with a mark between 1.22 and 1.37 every year of his career.
So blah ratios... fair to say.
LEAGUE CHANGE
Now Gallardo is moving to the American League to pitch in a hitters park. This cannot be good, can it? Let's compare his former home in Milwaukee with his new address in Arlington according to 2014 Park Factors.
MIL: 9th in HRs, 15th in runs, 24th in hits
TEX: 17th in HRs, 7th in runs, 17th in hits
OK, so the move to Arlington isn't a good one, but note that there is a significant difference in the two parks when it comes to the big fly, something that we will revisit in a bit.
STRIKEOUTS / WALKS
Concerns here, no doubt.
From 2007-12 Gallardo struck out 936 batters in 916.1 innings, good for a 9.19 K/9 mark. Included in that effort was four year stretch (2009-12) in which he struck out at least 200 batters each season. Only three men in baseball struck out 200 each season from 2009-12 - Gallardo, Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum. As for the 9.19 K/9 mark he had from 2007-12 it was the 4th best in baseball amongst all pitchers who threw at least 750-innings (Lincecum was first at 9.76). That's great. Now the bad.
In 2013 that number fell to 7.17 per nine.
A one year hiccup? Nope.
The mark fell even further in 2014 down to 6.83 per nine.
The lose of strikeouts really hurts his fantasy value, significantly so if he doesn't improve upon his ratios.
Interestingly, Gallardo has cut back the walks the past two seasons as the strikeouts have dwindled. For his career Gallardo has a 3.31 BB/9 mark. That's slightly worse than league average (3.26 since 2007). For the first time in his career though, Gallardo has posted back-to-back seasons with a walk rate under 3.30 with marks of 3.29 and 2.53 the past two seasons. The 2.53 mark from last season is rather interesting. Even with the worst strikeout rate of his career Gallardo still posted a 2.70 K/BB ratio, his best mark in three seasons and better than his career rate (2.59). He's throwing more strikes, trying to conserve his pitches, and work deeper into games it would appear, or at least that is the plan. Again, the loss of strikeouts robs him of one of his best talents in the fantasy game, but there might be more to Gallardo then just a pitcher crapping out.
PITCHING STYLE
So Gallardo threw his fastball at 91.4 miles per hour last season.
He threw the pitch 56 percent of the time.
For his career here are his averages: 91.9 mph, 58 percent.
It would seem that the lack of strikeouts has little to do with his fastball.
As you can see from this Brooks Baseball chart, the movement on the pitch is relatively unchanged though it was a bit flatter last season.
The fact is that Gallardo has learned that if he can keep the ball down, batters have a hard time squaring up his pitches.
And that's the key. He's eschewed punchouts for ground balls. Check out the upward movement of his ground ball rate the past five seasons:
43.0 percent
46.6 percent
47.7 percent
49.2 percent
50.8 percent
Linear growth like that clearly denotes a plan at work. As for his nearly 51 percent ground ball mark last season there were only 19 men who bettered it. Moreover Gallardo has produced a GB/FB ratio of 1.78 and 1.75 the last two seasons. Among pitchers who have thrown 320 innings the past two seasons his 1.76 GB/FB ratio is the 10th best in baseball. The Rangers defense on the infield - Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre - is also more adept at fielding the grounder than the group Gallardo left behind in Milwaukee.
When he does get the ball up it an be taken deep. Gallardo has an 11.3 HR/F ratio for his career, a mark that he's exceeded each of the past four seasons. Remember from above, that while perception would be that Texas is a better homer park than Milwaukee that the numbers suggest otherwise.
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
Gallardo will take the ball every five games for the Rangers. He figures to slot in as the third man in the rotation behind Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. The club will round out the rotation with two of a motley group of arms: Colby Lewis, Ross Detwiler, Nick Martinez and Nick Tepesch with Matt Harrison (out til late May with a back issue) and Martin Perez (out to July after Tommy John surgery) hoping to get a chance to start as well.
CONCLUSION
The loss of strikeouts for Gallardo certainly diminishes his upside potential in the fantasy game. He's no longer to be looked at as an Ina Kennedy, Jeff Samardzija type. Instead, Gallardo is now in the mix with pitchers like Mike Leake and Wily Peralta. There's obviously still value in pitchers like that, and that's my whole point with this Gallardo piece. Is he an ace? No. Is he a staff leader? No. Is he going to dominate and have a shot at the Cy Young award. No. Can he make solid starts and produce a nice return on your draft day investment? Yes. No one cares about Gallardo this year, so if you're take him late to round out your pitching staff that just might not be the worst thing of all-time to do.
10 team lg: Gallardo is not at all interesting here because of the lack of whiffs. He's a spot starter type in the right matchup.
12 team lg: A sixth starter option. Still best to use him as a spot starter here.
15 team lg: Now we're in an area where we could potentially be discussing Gallardo as more than just a matchup based option.
AL-only: A prime target if you don't mind taking a chance on a guy who may just be league average in the ratio categories. He has no oomph behind him, he's a vet, and the perception is he stinks. God be a nice bargain buy.