This should come as absolutely no surprise, but each of the top five fantasy defenses in Week 1 scored a touchdown. Seven of the top eight found the end zone. We can identify teams who have a better chance of generating turnovers and thus identify the teams that may have a better chance of scoring a defensive touchdown in a given week. But predicitng which teams will actually score on defense is almost impossible. 26 of 32 teams turned the ball over at least once in Week 1, and only nine defensive touchdowns were scored. Shoot, Cleveland turned the ball over five times, and the Jets didn't score a defensive touchdown. I say all that to say that picking team defenses is perhaps the least predicatble element of a very unpredictable game that we're playing. For that reason, I prefer to roster the cheapest defense I can and spend my money in more predictable spots. But if you get all the skill position players you want into a lineup and have money left to splurge on a defense, go for it.
Premium Options
Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens would look even better if Matt McGloin were starting for Oakland on Sunday, given his 4.2 percent career interception rate (league average was 2.5 percent last year). But it's still a good matchup, even with Derek Carr likely to start, as the Raiders have one of the five lowest team totals in Vegas this week. Plus, the Ravens are a good defense. They ranked eighth in Football Outsider's DVOA last year. They also rank fifth this year in FO's DAVE which mixes Week 1 performance and FO's preseason projections to rank defenses. They're probably too pricey on FanDuel, but they're accessible on DraftKings and Fantasy Feud.
St. Louis Rams - Basically everything that was just said about Baltimore applies to St. Louis. They have a good matchup with the Redskins who have the same team total in Vegas that the Raiders do. But the Rams do have a bit of a leg up matchup-wise as Washington's quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has a career 4.3 percent interception rate. As for being a good defense, the Rams ranked ninth in DVOA last year and rank fourth so far in DAVE. Again, they're very similar to Baltimore. The problem is that they're about as expensive on Baltimore on FanDuel and not quite as reasonably priced on DraftKings and Fantasy Feud.
Value Options
Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals have a middling matchup against the Bears according to Vegas, but there's a fair bit of turnover potential in the matchup. The Bears had the fourth highest turnover rate last year, and Jay Cutler has a 3.5 percent interception rate since moving to Chicago. The Cards finished seventh in DVOA last year, and they rank 13th in DAVE so far. They're probably most accessible price-wise on DraftKings but are a reasonable option on any site.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns were 11th in DVOA last year, and they're facing a Tennessee team with a rookie quarterback and a bottom 10 projected point total in Vegas. That all sounds good, but obviously that doesn't tell the whole story. That rookie QB is Marcus Mariota who looked great in his debut last week while the Browns gave up 31 points to a team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick. All of those positive factors mentioned at the beginning of this blurb are still true and thus make the Browns a consideration, but there are mitigating factors. It would be most tempting to roster them on Fantasy Feud where they're priced below average.
Bargain Options
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers ranked 30th in DVOA last year and rank 30th in DAVE so far this year, so there's nothing to like about this defense inherently. But the matchup looks decent against a San Francisco team that has the sixth lowest projected total in Vegas this week. The Niners were middle-of-the-pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses last year, and they ranked just below average in terms of stats like yards per play and Pro-Football-Reference's expected points. It's a dicey play, but we are talking bargains here after all. The Steelers would probably be most tempting on FanDuel where they are the ninth cheapest defense on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints - The Saints were 31st in DVOA last year and rank 31st in DAVE this year, so, like the Steelers, this is not a good defense. That said, the matchup is good and better than the matchup Pittsburgh has. The Saints will face the Bucs and their rookie quarterback who actually played like a rookie quarterback last week. Jameis Winston completed less than 50 percent of his passes in Week 1 and turned the ball over three times. The Bucs were the seventh most fantasy-friendly team to opposing defenses last year, and it's hard to make a case for that changing soon. Vegas agrees and has the Bucs with the third lowest projected total on Sunday. The Saints are priced most favorably on Fantasy Feud and are an option on DraftKings as well.