Mock Draft Army Draft #2: Still Establishing ADP Baselines
Published: Jan 26, 2015
Last week, the Mock Draft Army kicked off the 2015 fantasy baseball season with a pair of 12-team mixed league mocks and the path to quality ADP and sound draft strategies was established. If you missed the write-up for the first draft, you can click here for a full rundown. Today, we’ll touch on the second draft and discuss some of the differences noticed.
Allow me to reiterate that, at this point, there is not as much concern for me as to the final team I draft. Right now, I am more concerned with seeing where people are going in the draft; their base ADP, if you will. I am using different draft strategies to help mix things up and am building a team that, for now, looks like it will be competitive if the season were to be played out, but it’s more important for me to take a player at an appropriate spot in the draft than to reach for some young, rookie hopeful who may or may not see playing time depending on how he fares during the spring.
So with that in mind, let’s take a look at how the draft played out along with some of my thoughts on my strategy and how the rest of the room reacted according to how their draft was going.
For easy reference, here's a look at the final draft board.
The Strategy
So in the first draft, I opted to go with a pitcher-heavy strategy. Without care or concern for what the other drafters were doing, my first six picks were arms – four starters, two closers – and from there I built up my offense. This time around I went with the complete opposite. Regardless of how many starters were coming off the board, I was going to stick with offense for my first six picks.
To add in, I was also going to throw some focus onto position scarcity. Many experts will tell you that the notion is a myth and that you can easily find quality plays at positions like second base and shortstop later in your draft. Others will tell you that the drop-off from the first and second tiers to the tiers below in the middle infield is so significant that you need to act fast and grab someone from the top group. For this draft, my intent was to side with the latter.
But I was also considering some trends from the last two years that involve scarcity as well. In recent years, the outfield thinned out dramatically after the first four or five rounds with something like 30-35-percent of the top-50 picks being outfielders. And of course, let’s not forget the nightmare that third base has become.
So with all of that in mind, this is how things seemed to play out.
First Six Picks
When I’m looking to develop ADP baselines, I look for best player on the board, regardless of whether I personally believe in them or not. Carlos Gomez and Josh Donaldson both fit the bill with regard to my strategy and I wouldn’t mind owning either for the 2015 season, but Jacoby Ellsbury is not such a player. This is an appropriate time to draft him for most people which is why I drafted him, but with his injury history, I tend to shy away. Still, for establishing ADP baselines, this was the right move. From there, I took care of both middle infield spots with Jason Kipnis and Starlin Castro as well as a third outfielder in Matt Kemp.
So how did the rest of the field react? Well, similarly to the first draft, there were four teams, myself included, who ignored pitching completely through the first five rounds. However, unlike the other draft, only 10 pitchers were taken through the first four rounds as opposed to 12. In the fifth round though, it started to take off as five more pitchers went, including two elite closers in Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman.
Third base stayed relatively similar from draft to draft as the same top-seven third basemen went in the first five rounds. However, in this one, unlike the other, third basemen came off the board a little fast as another three went in Rounds 7 and 8 while in the first, no third basemen went again until the ninth round. Again, it’s just two drafts, but should you not grab one of the top seven in the first five rounds, you’ll want to make a decision fast as to whether you really need to fill that spot or if you can wait until the later rounds.
As for the middle infield, it was obvious that the folks drafting here had a greater concern over position scarcity than in the first drafts. Seven middle infielders went within the first four rounds of this draft, likely at the expense of pitching. The numbers are glaringly different, but this will be a trend you’ll want to continue watching. Will more people be into pitching earlier or will they stick with the offensive players, particularly, the middle infield?
The Middle Rounds
It was time to start looking for pitching so with my next two picks I grabbed the best starters on the board in Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray. They’re both stable options with great upside, but both lack the No. 1 stud quality that previous hurlers who went had. Of the other three teams who ignored pitching in the first five rounds, two of them grabbed starters in the sixth – Scott McCloy of RotoBaller took Jeff Samardzija and reader Rick Garlinghouse grabbed Jordan Zimmermann. The third, Joel Nickels, waited until the ninth round to grab his first starter, Jake deGrom. These were obviously the teams I was going to be up against for the better end of the mid-tiered pitchers here in these middle rounds. It’s a number high enough to make me think that I should stick with pitching for a few rounds more.
While I missed on the top-tier of closers, I still landed two solid options in Dellin Betances and Drew Storen. But each one has their own questions, something that I preach against when drafting. I like strong, stable closers who aren’t likely to lose their jobs outside of a debilitating injury. Betances could lose opportunities to Andrew Miller should the Yankees decide to mix and match based on handedness and Storen has been removed from the role before without much provocation. Not to mention his struggles in the post-season. But these were the two “best” at the time.
I splashed in a pair of outfielders in Mark Trumbo and Marcell Ozuna (I could also use Trumbo at first base, if needed) before solidifying my rotation with Mat Latos and Andrew Cashner. I feel pretty comfortable with the top four starters and two closers, though I was still going to need some savvy late-round pitchers to keep the rotation strong. Meanwhile, as I was doing this, the rest of the field seemed to be focusing on the middle infield as well as the top catchers out there and in looking at some of those names – Elvis Andrus, Dustin Pedroia, Daniel Murphy, and Javier Baez to name a few – I would have to say that I’m more a believer that position scarcity is more myth than fact.
The Later Rounds
I left the catcher position until Round 15 as Wilson Ramos was still available and John Jaso five rounds later. No concerns there. But what I love about these later rounds is that, once again, there’s a realization that there is plenty of depth in a number of places and the back end of any draft is likely to be filled with a ton of bargains. Dallas Keuchel, Brandon McCarthy, and Brandon Belt were all available to me. I grabbed Kris Bryant in the 16th which I felt was a good value. He may stay in Triple-A until May, but will still be a solid value there. And finally, names like Jedd Gyorko and yes, even Alex Rodriguez were available to me for potential value plays.
Interestingly enough, the rest of the field went that same route at the tail-end of the draft. Save for Fantasy Alarm’s Spencer Silva’s selection of Joc Pederson in the 17th round, there was not a single rookie taken in the final six rounds of the draft. If that happens in your real draft, you’ll have to keep in mind that your waiver wire may not be as plentiful to open the season.
Strategy Conclusion
Obviously the depth at starting pitching makes this strategy a viable one. However, you need to watch the rest of the field to make sure that there aren’t too many people following the same path. If there are, it just might be more beneficial to make a move towards pitching a little earlier as the competition for mid-tiered starters will be greater. The key here really is research. I’ve always believed that you can build a winning pitching staff without investing a high pick in an ace, but only if you really crunch the numbers and make smart choices late. Underrated or underappreciated guys like Keuchel and McCarthy can both help keep a rotation stable and turn out a good value. Questionable options like Wade Miley or even Archie Bradley probably won’t.
The Mock Draft Army has three drafts coming up this week. With each draft, I’ll do a write-up, but more importantly, I will start putting together some ADP numbers and start looking at potential trends. We’re just getting started here, but by the time position players start reporting for spring training, we’re going to have some fierce numbers with which to work.
I'd like to also take a moment to thank everyone who has participated in these first two drafts. The writers and broadcasters who have participated have been outstanding in their support of the Army and have been great about making themselves available for in-draft discussions. And the readers and listeners who have taken part have been an absolute plasure to host. I thank you all for helping make this a premium draft prep tool.
If you'd like to join the Mock Draft Army, hit me up on Twitter (@rotobuzzguy) or send an email to rotobuzzguy@gmail.com and I can add you to the list.