By now we have gotten used to DraftKings and FanDuel posting different EPL DFS slates, but I believe it is fair to say Saturday’s slate is more different than usual. Saturday’s FanDuel slate includes not one but two late games, while DraftKings’ main slate features only the three 10:00 a.m. ET games. All five games should be interesting for fantasy, though the two late games could wind up providing the most goals.

The highlight of the early slate is Manchester City hosting Nottingham Forest. City is the only team not to drop points through the first five games, while Forest will hope their 1-0 victory over Chelsea before the break has finally put their road woes behind them. Coincidentally, that was Nottingham Forest’s only game that didn’t see both teams score. Both teams have scored in Manchester City’s last three games, and there is a good chance that streak continues.

Manchester City is -650 to win, and no other team on the slate is better than -130. That honor belongs to Manchester United, who are at winless Burnley. Both teams have scored in Burnley’s last three games and Manchester United’s last three games.

Therefore, I think the best bet for a win and a clean sheet is Brentford, who is -125 at home to Everton. Everton is the only team in the league to get shut out more than twice in five games. The last remaining favorite is Crystal Palace, -105 at home to Fulham. They both have seven points in the standings but Palace is four points better in goal differential and they have an even bigger advantage in xG.

The last game could have huge repercussions in the relegation battle. Luton is the only team in the league without a point (albeit in just four games), and they won’t get many better chances than at home to Wolverhampton. Wolves are one of four teams in the league with four losses but unlike the others, they also have a win, 1-0 at Everton. Both teams have allowed far more goals than they have scored, so it will be interesting to see if the offenses get on track or if the defenses have an easier time.

 

EPL DFS Soccer Picks September 23

Goalkeepers
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
EdersonMCINFO59009.711411.20
I'm probably not paying up for a keeper on this slate. That being said, City has won every game this season and that is unlikely to change. I don't really expect a clean sheet but with two in five games, they are certainly capable.
Mark FlekkenBREEVE  126.80
Everton has scored the fewest goals per game in the league, and they have been shut out in four of their five games. Only five teams have allowed fewer goals than Brentford, who is unbeaten in three home games. I think Flekken is by far our best bet at a win and clean sheet, especially considering the price.
Jose SaWOLLUT50007.6118.80
Thomas Kaminski was more expensive than I expected, so I'll pay slightly more for Jose Sa. Luton has managed just two goals through four games, and while Wolverhampton has allowed a lot of goals, I mostly blame that on their schedule. They already kept one clean sheet at Everton and they have a chance to do it again against the other team with the fewest goals in the league.
Bernd LenoFULCRY420010.78912.60
As much as I don't like the top-tier keepers, I don't like the cheap options either. Only two teams have more saves than Fulham, and nobody has more clean sheets. Only four teams have allowed more saves than Crystal Palace. Leno should collect a handful of saves without allowing too many goals, all at a reasonable price.
        
Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Luca KoleoshoBRNMUN  128.80
I might pivot to Anass Zaroury or Zeki Amdouni but Koleosho is cheaper and is averaging 1.5 chances created through four games. The Burnley attack has a lot of moving parts with Lyle Foster out, Zaroury back and Mike Tresor arriving on loan from Genk, but only two teams have allowed more goals than Manchester United. I think someone from Burnley will provide a cheap goal and Koleosho's chances created give him a reasonable floor.
Jordan AyewCRYFUL780012.561720.62
Ayew was forced off after 24 minutes against Aston Villa due to a leg injury, but before that he had 16 crosses, seven shots, seven chances created and two assists through four games. Fulham is tied for third in goals allowed this season.
Phil FodenMCINFO890013.31818.28
I am tempted to pay up for Jeremy Doku but Foden's per 90 numbers have been much better, especially when it comes to shots, xG and chances created. Its only a matter of time before he scores, and he looks like the best value on this squad.
Taiwo AwoniyiNFOMCI700012.811520.58
Manchester City has allowed a goal in three straight games, and I like the chances for that streak to continue until they get some more of their players back from injury. Nottingham Forest has at least one goal in every game, and Awoniyi has scored or assisted on five of their seven goals this season. He won't send in crosses but he does everything else.
Carlos ViniciusFULCRY510012.31622.10
Is it possible Fulham has finally found a reliable replacement for Aleksandar Mitrovic? It is too early to tell, but with so few cheap options on the slate, I'm happy to chase a goal on DraftKings.
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Erling HaalandMCINFO1120025.842644.78
The only player on either slate who has come even close to Haaland's production is Callum Hudson-Odoi, who has only played one game. Haaland is fairly affordable, though if this is the rare game he gets shut out, your lineup will be in trouble.
Marcus RashfordMUNBRN  2115.34
Bruno Fernandes is safer, but Burnley has been prone to miscues that allow acres of space for attackers, and Rashford should thrive in that environment. If I had to pick anyone in this slate to score a brace outside of Haaland, Rashford would be my choice.
        
Midfielders
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Christian EriksenMUNBRN  1412.44
Eriksen was quiet last time out against Brighton but he created two chances and had a goal involvement in both games before that. We are getting a great price for a good player in a good matchup, though there is a reason his teammates are more expensive.
WillianFULCRY77003.36136.03
Willian was solid in his first start since returning from am undisclosed injury, with two shots, three crosses and three chances created against Luton. This matchup isn't quite as good, but I still like Willian on both sites. He is cheaper than Andreas Pereira on FanDuel and he is forward-eligible on DraftKings.
Albert Sambi LokongaLUTWOL34002.76104.50
Lokonga got his first start of the season last week, and he was already on free kicks. He finished with two crosses and one chance created, and he doesn't need to do much more than that Saturday to provide value. This should be an even better matchup at home against Wolves.
Pedro NetoWOLLUT930018.382026.04
Neto has assisted on four of Wolves' five goals this season, and yet he still might be underrated. He is second on the team with 1.2 xG and this could easily be the game he gets his first goal of the season. You can pivot to Eberechi Eze on DraftKings if you need a forward but there are enough options there that we can save some money with Neto.
Mathias JensenBREEVE  1621.58
Jensen was forced off with an injury in the first game of the season but since then he has 11 chances created in his last four games, but he is still looking for his first assist. Even so, he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points in those four games. If he just keeps that up, he is far too cheap.
        
Defenders
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Antonee RobinsonFULCRY34004.251010.15
Robinson is expected to be available Saturday, though we might have to pivot to Timothy Castagne again in Robinson begins the game on the bench. Only three teams have allowed more crosses than Crystal Palace this season. Kenny Tete may have more upside but Robinson is $1,700 cheaper.
Nathan CollinsBREEVE  1012.62
Collins has at least 11.1 FD fantasy points in four of his five games, with at least five clearances in three of those. Everton has allowed more clearances than any team on the slate. If Collins doesn't start, or if you need to save some money, Ben Mee is a fine replacement.
Jarrad BranthwaiteEVEBRE  1215.93
Branthwaite has one fewer clearance than Tarkowski in two fewer games. I don't really expect that to last all season but for now, I'm willing to pay the extra $1 to secure Branthwaite.
Issa KaboreLUTWOL42004.1997.75
Kabore has at least three crosses in all three starts all on the road. He added three shots and four chances created in those games, and now we have a nice matchup at home. Kabore is more expensive than last week but he still looks like a great value.

EPL DFS Soccer Core Plays 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top TierPhil Foden$8,900
Pedro Neto$9,300
Mid TierJordan Ayew$7,800
  
Value TierAntonee Robinson$3,400
Albert Sambi Lokonga$3,400
   
Fanduel Core Plays
Top TierPedro Neto$20
Erling Haaland$26
Mid TierJordan Ayew$17
Mathias Jensen$16
Value TierLuca Koleosho$12
Nathan Collins$10
 

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