This feels weird to say about a slate featuring Manchester City, but it is difficult to trust any of the teams in Wednesday’s EPL DFS slate. City is on the road against one of the hottest teams in the league, and they come in with just one win in their last six games. No other team on the slate has better than a +1 goal differential, so it's understandable that we wouldn’t trust those teams.
Chelsea is one of the teams at +1, but they are dealing with the absences of Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling, among others. Christopher Nkunku’s first Premier League start would certainly help, but it is difficult to know how he will fit into a team that has been mediocre all season and has a lot of moving parts.
Crystal Palace has the worst goal differential on the slate at -8, but they should finally have Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Dean Henderson healthy together for the first time all season. That may not be enough on the road at Chelsea, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Palace pulled out a win.
EPL DFS Soccer Picks December 27
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Dean Henderson
CRY
CHE
4100
8.59
8
11.25
Henderson has been great since returning from a hip injury, with 12 saves in two games. He almost certainly won't continue at that pace, but Crystal Palace is an average team with an average matchup, and I'm not sure why Henderson is so cheap. I would rather take a chance on him than pay up for someone who is just as risky.
Mark Flekken
BRE
WOL
5100
5.27
11
6.13
For as good as Wolverhampton has been this season, they have lost six of their nine games on the road. I'll pay for the likely win and hope we get a handful of saves.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Julian Alvarez
MCI
EVE
8800
14.54
23
22.06
I would be awfully tempted to pivot to Bernardo Silva, especially on FanDuel. That being said, Alvarez's spot on set pieces gives him a higher floor than Silva. He also scored twice in the Club World Cup on Friday, and he is probably the best bet of any City attacker to score Wednesday.
Christopher Nkunku
CHE
CRY
9800
18.06
22
32.10
This is a ton to pay for someone who has played just 31 Premier Leauge minutes. That being said, he had four shots (three on goal), a cross and a goal in his debut Sunday. More importantly, there really aren't any safe top-tier players on this slate. If we're going to take a risk anyway, may as well go for the player with the highest upside.
Jean-Philippe Mateta
CRY
CHE
6000
5.27
14
9.58
We don't really know what this Crystal Palace attack is going to look like with Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise and Jean-Philippe Mateta all healthy. I suspect Eze and especially Olise are overpriced, but I think there is a good chance Mateta continues his hot streak. He has at least 16.7 FD fantasy points in each of his last three games, and while I think he is safer on FanDuel, Mateta is playable on DraftKings as well.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jack Grealish
MCI
EVE
8000
9.7
16
15.27
Grealish is pretty risky, even with all of Manchester City's injuries, but we are getting a great price to chase his three-game goal streak. I think he's a better bet to get a goal than anyone in his price range on FanDuel.
Mathias Jensen
BRE
WOL
7300
10.26
17
19.58
Jensen is available to play Wednesday; the only question is if he immediately rejoins the starting lineup in his first game in over six weeks. Saman Ghoddos would be a strong play on both sites if Jensen is on the bench but Jensen would be the top Brentford attacker with Bryan Mbeumo remaining out.
Conor Gallagher
CHE
CRY
6300
8.66
16
17.59
I would be tempted to pivot to Mykhailo Mudryk, especially on DraftKings. That being said, Gallagher should at least split set pieces with Murdryk now that Cole Palmer is out. Gallagher leads Chelsea in assists and is second only to Cole Palmer in chances created. He should be a solid value on both sites.
Pablo Sarabia
WOL
BRE
8200
11.29
15
16.29
Sarabia has at least seven crosses and three chances created in all four games since joining the starting lineup. He is by far the safest player in his price range on either site and with two assists in that span, he has a decent ceilling as well.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Malo Gusto
CHE
CRY
4800
5.4
10
9.46
Gusto hasn't been super consistent this season, but he is averaging 8.23 DK fantasy points in his seven starts this season. Only Vitaly Mykolenko and Seamus Coleman are averaging more on this slate, and they have to face Manchester City. If you want to spend up on a defender, Gusto looks like the best target by far.
Ian Maatsen
CHE
CRY
2600
1.22
8
2.29
If Maatsen starts, he is a must-play on DraftKings and an upside play on FanDuel. Maatsen was great for Burnley last season in the Championship and he has been good in limited minutes off the bench this season, averaging 4.71 crosses, 1.18 chances created and 1.78 shots per 90 minutes. If he comes close to that production as a starter, he is an exceptional value.
Rayan Ait-Nouri
WOL
BRE
4500
4.82
10
9.91
Ait-Nouri struggled against Chelsea in his return from an ankle injury on Sunday but prior to hurting the ankle, he was averaging 5.76 DK fantasy points. I expect him to bounce back in this matchup.
Zanka
BRE
WOL
2900
1.42
8
3.77
Zanka was relatively quiet last week in his first start of the season, but he averaged 3.17 clearances and 2.68 tackles + interceptions last season. He should get at least one more start with Ben Mee and Frank Onyeka suspended, and he is much too cheap on FanDuel.
