As is always the case this time of year, we must be vigilant in checking lineups before kickoff of Saturday’s EPL DFS slate. Most of these teams play on boxing day, and some had Cup matches midweek as well. That being said, there is one team that bears watching above the others.
Nottinham Forest just appointed a new manager three days ago, and there is no telling how much he may change the team in that time or what exactly those changes will look like. Nuno typically prefers a 4-2-3-1 lineup, which could be bad news for Harry Toffolo. Toffolo was better for fantasy the last two games while lining up at wing back, and I worry that he and Neco Williams but both struggle under the new manager. Anthony Elanga is probably riskier under Nuno, especially since Morgan Gibbs-White previously played for Nuno with Wolves. If we get a crazy formation or some surprise starters we could have an even greater opportunity for value above and beyond the normal year-end lineup shuffling.
EPL DFS Soccer Picks December 23
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Martin Dubravka
NEW
LUT
5600
6.44
12
7.88
No team has kept more clean sheets than Newcastle, and only two have scored fewer goals than Luton town. I'll feel better about getting the win if Anthony Gordon can go but with Kieran Trippier back from suspension, I trust Newcastle to take care of business.
Guglielmo Vicario
TOT
EVE
5300
8.21
11
9.85
Tottenham is considered more of an offensive team, but they are tied for sixth in clean sheets and are eighth in goals allowed. Perhaps more importantly, Everton has allowed the fifth-most saves and the third-most clean sheets while ranking ninth in goals scored. The saves should give Vicario a high floor, while the chance of another home win and a clean sheet offer a high ceiling.
Matt Turner
NFO
BOU
4500
5.62
9
6.71
Nottingham Forest's home/road splits aren't quiet as drastic as they were last season, but their goal differential is 11 better at home. Nottingham Forest has a -1 goal differential at home, while Bournemouth is -5 on the road. If I'm looking to steal a cheap win, Turner looks like the best bet, even if we aren't particularly likely to get a clean sheet or a bunch of saves.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jacob Bruun Larsen
BRN
FUL
7500
4.91
14
7.61
Bruun Larsen is averaging 6.3 crosses, 2.7 chances created and 2.7 shots across three starts. He is averaging 20.6 FD fantasy points in that span, and if he matches that production in another pretty solid match up, he should provide great fantasy value.
Miguel Almiron
NEW
LUT
7800
7.59
17
12.72
Newcastle has a very good matchup but few players who are positioned to take advantage, especially if Anthony Gordon's knock keeps him out. Almiron has at least 13.4 FD fantasy points in five straight games, including 34.8 against Fulham last time out. He is our best bet if you can't pay up for Gordon or Callum Wilson.
Lyle Foster
BRN
FUL
5100
8.58
16
18.46
I don't know if Foster is going to start or play 80+ minutes, but in a DraftKings slate that has a lot of mid-priced options but few stand out value plays, he is too cheap. Foster has five goal involvements in seven starts, and I'll take the risk if he starts Saturday.
Luis Sinisterra
BOU
NFO
7600
5.38
14
10.04
Sinisterra had two shots, two chances created and an assist in his only start of the season. He's averaging 0.67 goal involvements, 2.0 chances created and 4.01 shots per 90 minutes. Marcus Tavernier may have to move to left-back due to the injuries to Milos Kerkez and Lloyd Kelly, which would make Sinisterra a high-upside play.
Richarlison
TOT
EVE
8200
9.59
19
16.15
I don't trust Richarlison, but I am usually willing to ride his hot streaks. Richarlison has five goal involvements in his last six starts including three goals in his last two games. I don't think it hurts that he is facing his former club, even though they have been pretty stingy defensively this season.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Mohamed Salah
LIV
ARS
23
29.68
I was encouraged to see Salah score 34.6 fantasy points against Manchester United despite being shut out. He created five chances and put all four of his shots on frame. Salah has scored at least 27 fantasy points in every home game this season. By Comparison, Son Heung-Min has topped 19.6 fantasy points just twice in the six games James Maddison has missed. Salah looks like a great target despite the tough matchup.
Anthony Gordon
NEW
LUT
8700
13.54
21
21.77
All of the top-tier attackers on DraftKings have questions, but if Gordon is healthy enough to start, I expect another strong performance.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Willian
FUL
BRN
8500
9.7
16
15.73
Burnley has allowed four more goals than any other team on the slate, putting all of Fulham's attackers in play. Whoever starts up top for Raul Jimenez could be the best play but Willian looks like a nice value regardless of where he lines up. Willian is averaging more fppg than Andreas Pereira or Alex Iwobi and he has four goal involvements in his last four games.
Morgan Gibbs-White
NFO
BOU
8100
11.43
16
15.65
I am really tempted to pivot to Anthony Elanga, but ideally I would like to see what this team looks like under Nuno Espirito Santo before I take that risk. Gibbs-White has experience with Santo at Wolverhampton, and he already had a higher floor than Elanga.
James Garner
EVE
TOT
5200
9.16
16
17.98
Garner has at least 7.3 DK fantasy points in four straight games, including against Chelsea and Manchester United. I'm not that concerned about the matchup and if it serves to keep his price down, I'll take it.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
William Saliba
ARS
LIV
10
10.65
Saliba has been just as good for fantasy as Gabriel Magalhaes, so I'm not sure why Saliba is $1 cheaper. More importantly, Liverpool is the best match up in the league for defensive stats.Of Arsenal's two starting center backs, Saliba is the pretty clear choice.
Eric Dier
TOT
EVE
2600
2.16
8
8.30
It is an admittedly small sample sise, but Dier is averaging 5.00 clearances per 90 minutes this season. Everton has allowed the second-most clearances in the league, and Dier could provide exceptional value if he can make it through 90 minutes without reinjury.
Kieran Trippier
NEW
LUT
7700
15.07
15
23.24
Pedro Porro has been more consistent of late, and I might pivot to him on DraftKings. That being said, Trippier is cheaper than Porro and Trent Alexander-Arnold on FanDuel and he has a much better matchup.
Nathan Patterson
EVE
TOT
4500
4.61
11
9.33
Patterson has averaged 8.38 DK fantasy points in six starts. His price is down because he has come off the bench in 60 percent of his appearances, which provides nice value for us.
Antonee Robinson
FUL
BRN
5600
8.98
14
18.90
If you don't want to spend all the way up for Kieran Trippier or Pedro Porro, Robinson is a totally safe option with a very nice matchup. He has at least 8.7 DK fantasy points in six straight games.
