NHL DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook
Published: Nov 07, 2024
A massive 11-game is on tap tonight and there a ton of great options to sort through. There are a few injuries going around for a number of teams and that opens up a bit of value and some line changes to keep note of.
I would anticipate a higher-scoring slate since there are nine teams with implied goal totals at 3.5 or higher tonight.
NHL DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, November 7th
With so many good options tonight, I'm not expecting one team/stack to have massively high ownership, which makes things interesting in tournaments.
Without further ado, let's jump into tonight's slate and my NHL DFS picks!
NHL DFS Pick'em Picks On Sleeper Fantasy
- Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points
- Brock Nelson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- David Pastrnak Over 0.5 Goals
Kirill Kaprizov and the Minnesota Wild are rocking a 3.8 implied goal total tonight against the San Jose Sharks and should be a primary option for many people. Kaprizov is off to a blazing hot start with 21 points in 12 games this season and is now up against one of the worst defenses in the league. Despite having no points in his last two games, this is the spot for Kaprizov to bounce back and find the scoresheet.
Brock Nelson and the New York Islanders are dealing with a ton of injuries right now and it requires everyone to do just a bit more on offense. Surprisingly, the Islanders come in with 61.90 Total Shot Attempts Created per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-highest in the league. While they aren't scoring a ton of goals, they are generating a ton of chances, which has allowed Nelson to go over this number in five of his last six games.
David Pastrnak hasn't scored a goal in his last five games for the Boston Bruins. For one of the best goal-scorers over the last several years, seeing five straight games without a goal is a bit jarring. This isn't for the lack of trying, as he has 21 shots on goal over those five games. His shot prop is sitting at 4.5, which is a bit too high for me, so I'll roll with the goal prop and buy into some positive regression for an elite goal-scorer.
NHL DFS Lineup Picks Today, 11/7
Goalie Of The Day: Jake Oettinger - DAL
The Dallas Stars come in as massive -360 home favorites against the Chicago Blackhawks, which should put Jake Oettinger in line for an easy win. The Stars are one of the best defensive teams in the league with the third-fewest (27) goals allowed this season, something that has been their calling card for a few seasons.
Oettinger has allowed three goals or fewer in six of his seven starts this season and two goals or fewer in four of them. Considering the Blackhawks are only scoring 2.14 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 10th lowest in the league, Oettinger and the Stars should have no issues picking up the win.
Play Of The Day: Kirill Kaprizov - MIN
The Minnesota Wild are off to a great start this season and with a 3.8 implied goal total against the San Jose Sharks, we should be looking to Kirill Kaprizov tonight. As noted above, Kaprizov is crushing it this season with 21 points in 12 games, while seeing time in his usual spot on the first forward line and the first power-play unit.
The Sharks are in the bottom five of the league in both Total Shot Attempts Allowed (69.51) and Goals Allowed (3.08), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They've been one of the worst defensive teams in the league for multiple seasons and we routinely target them for fantasy production. Tonight is no different and Kaprizov while pile up the points after two slower games from the star winger.
Value Play Of The Day: Dawson Mercer - NJD
Dawson Mercer has been piling up the stats and fantasy points to start the season and finds himself very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Over his last 10 games, he has 2 goals, 4 assists, 17 shots on goal, and 13 blocked shots.
Doing a bit of everything is always a great way to provide fantasy value on a nightly basis and that should only continue tonight versus the Canadiens. With a role on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, Mercer is primed for another solid fantasy night.
Stack Of The Day: NJD L2/PP1 (Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton)
The New Jersey Devils top tonight's slate with a 4.3 implied goal total and could easily hit that due to their matchup against the Montreal Canadiens. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt skate on the second forward line and the first power-play together, giving us some juicy correlation. I then prefer to add Dougie Hamilton to the stack but if want to pivot and go for Nico Hischier, that is also a viable option.
The Canadiens are terrible on defense this season, allowing 3.82 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league. They are also in the top 10 of the league for the most penalty minutes (141), while the Devils are in the top five of the league (30.4%) in power-play percentage, giving us an elite matchup for scoring.
Today's NHL DFS Cheat Sheet & Stacks
Player Pool
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Stacks
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