Welcome back to the NHL Playbook! You’ll find our daily NHL Best Bets and which players you should target in DFS. We’ve conveniently put it all in one article to simplify life. If you have more questions, make sure to hit up the Fantasy Alarm NHL Discord. Let’s dive into the action and build a winning lineup!

 

 

 

NHL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/11

There may only be two games today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some good value. We have not one, but TWO Player Props for tonight’s action. Let’s dive right into the action and add some dollar bills (or loonies) to your wallet!

 

 

 

Jets vs Stars Prediction: Sunday, May 11th

With the series tied 1-1 and now moving to Dallas, the Winnipeg Jets hope to bring some of the momentum they had last game into this one. They needed to have a strong game, and they delivered. Connor Hellebuyck put together a masterful performance, securing the shutout and looking more like a goalie who is expected to win the Vezina Trophy. 

Dallas did their job by going on the road and getting a win, now they have to do their job on home ice. Since the beginning of the series, no player has blocked more shots than Esa Lindell. Miro Heiskanen has already been ruled out for tonight, so Lindell is likely to continue to see a heavy dose of minutes. The bump in ice time and the confidence that the coach has in him to play against the opposing team’s best players puts him in a good spot to rack up at least three blocked shots. 

 

 

 

Maple Leafs vs Panthers: Friday, May 9th

It doesn’t matter what team Brad Marchand plays for, he’s going to find a way to haunt the Toronto Maple Leafs. The veteran forward scored the overtime winner in Game 3,  and to say that was the biggest goal of the series for the Panthers would be an understatement. Florida needed that win just to keep pace in this series. Now, they have to do it again if they want to turn this series into a best-of-three.

The core four have been criticized in previous years for their lack of production in the playoffs, but that hasn’t been the case this year. Auston Matthews may not have a goal in this series, but he does have 3 assists. Just like during the regular season, he becomes an assist machine on the road. We know he has an elite shot and can find the back of the net, but we’ll target his assist prop. It’s wild that we can get it at plus money considering just how good he’s been all year at setting his teammates up.

 

 


Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL DFS Breakdown:

  • FLA Goals for: 3rd TOR Goals for: 5th
  • FLA Goals against: 7th TOR Goals against: 6th
  • FLA Power play: 8th TOR Power play: 7th
  • FLA Penalty Kill: 3rd TOR Penalty Kill: 5th


This series continues to provide us with a ton of goals, so you’ll need to have a decent amount of exposure to this game if you want to win some money. The goaltending has been mediocre at best since the start, so once again, we will target offensive players.

On the Toronto side, William Nylander is the obvious choice. His price tag is reasonable, and he continues to find ways to put the puck in the net. If you're looking for some mid-range priced players, Matthew Knies and Max Pacioretty are two more names to consider. 

For the Panthers, Sam Reinhart is the obvious offensive choice. He collected his first goal of the series in Game 3 and finished with six shots on goal. The shot volume may not repeat itself tonight, but if he puts the puck in the net, that doesn’t really matter. As for some value players, Brad Marchand and Carter Verhaeghe will give you the best bang for your buck.

On the back end, we will continue to target value defenceman. Simon Benoit, Brandon Carlo and Christopher Tanev are all elite shot blockers, and their price tags are all below $4000. That kind of value makes it hard to ignore them. If you want to spend up, Morgan Rielly could be an option. He is consistently racking up points and is even mixing in some blocked shots.  I think his floor is high enough to warrant consideration.

For the Panthers, it’s Gustav Forsling or nothing. Seth Jones has now gone back-to-back games without a shot and doesn’t block very many. Aaron Ekblad isn’t an offensive threat, and the rest are just inconsistent. We need our defenceman to have a decent floor, and only Forsling can provide us with that.

If you are convinced you want to play a goalie from this game, the only one worth considering is Sergei Bobrovsky, but that comes with a ton of risk. Bobrovsky has given up at least 4 goals in every game this series, so even if he does pick up the win, it’s not enough to hit value. His price tag for tonight is $8300, which is just too high considering his production. Joseph Woll isn’t trustworthy enough, so in the end, you pick your poison. 

 

 

 

Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets NHL DFS Breakdown:
 

  • DAL Goals for: 13th WPG Goals for: 10th
  • DAL Goals against: 9th WPG Goals against: 10th
  • DAL Power play: 6th WPG Power play: 13th
  • DAL Penalty Kill: 2nd WPG Penalty Kill: 6th

With the series now moving to Dallas, the Jets are riding all the momentum. They needed to have a strong game, especially Connor Hellebuyck. They got all that and more. It was a real team effort, but they’ll need even more tonight.

Offensively, the Jets have some players we can count on. Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi are two names to consider, but the player I like the most is Nikolaj Ehlers. He finished with seven shots on goal and three points in just under 15 minutes of ice time. I’d like to see him play a little more, but as long as he’s producing, we’ll take it.

Defensively, Josh Morrissey is the obvious choice. He made his series debut and was pretty good, playing just over 22 minutes and recording an assist. We know what he can contribute offensively, but he can also block shots. Speaking of shots being blocked, Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg are two players who can do just that. Samberg is the more affordable, so that’s probably the best option, but Pionk has more offensive upside. 

For the Stars, there is no shortage of players up front to target. If we’re looking for elite talent, Mikko Rantanen is the way to go. If you want some affordable players, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston are all good options. If you want to take a risk, Jason Robertson is a name to remember. He played more last game, but the shot volume isn’t there, and he’s not finding the scoresheet. 

Esa Lindell is going to be a very popular option tonight just because he can block so many shots. If you want to target a second defenceman, Thomas Harley is a good option. You can play both in the same lineup or pick just one that fits your budget.

I don’t know if Connor Hellebuyck is back, but he certainly made his case. If you think he can string together two solid performances, then take the risk. If you want to play it safe, Jake Oettinger is the way to go. He has been very good in the playoffs and was lights out at home during the regular season. He is $8000 on DraftKings, but if you target enough value defenceman, you should be able to afford him.

 

 

 

NHL DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

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