NHL Best Bets Today, 1/18: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Saturday
What a day of sports we have! While the NFL playoffs are in full swing, we have a full slate of NHL games today. We'll focus on the games starting at 6 pm EST.
NHL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 1/18
The NHL season is long and it's clear that some teams might be hitting a bit of a wall at this point and it opens up the possibility for higher levels of variance. We saw a surging Montreal Canadiens go on the road and beat a Stanley Cup hopeful in the Dallas Stars the other night, along with the Detroit Red Wings also go on the road and beat the Florida Panthers.
Despite this variance, I'm still looking to buy into good/great teams that are due for a bounce back. Water always finds its level.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Chicago Blackhawks Prediction: Saturday, January 18th
The Vegas Golden Knights are one of the best teams in the league but they've hit a bit of a road bump in their last few games. They have just one win in their last five games, with some of those losses coming against the New York Islanders, the New York Rangers, and the Nashville Predators, who are all inferior teams.
Vegas lost last night to a solid Carolina Hurricanes' team but I fully expect them to rebound tonight against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks. Since the start of January, the Blackhawks have allowed a league-worst, 3.17 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. On top of that, they have allowed 64.33 Total Shot Attempts per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
The Blackhawks are simply terrible on defense and if there's any game for the Golden Knights to get back to their winning ways, this is the matchup.
So, I like the Golden Knights on the 3-way moneyline, meaning they have to win in regulation. I also will turn to their top-line center, Jack Eichel to lead the charge on offense, so I'll look to him for over 3.5 shots on goal. He comes in with 31 shots on goal in his last 10 games, hitting at least 3 shots in seven games. He's active on offense and live to hit this every night.
- Expert Picks Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks
- Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120 on DraftKings)
- Golden Knights 3-way Moneyline (-150 on DraftKings)
Anaheim Ducks vs. Florida Panthers Prediction: Saturday, January 18th
The Florida Panthers are a great example of what I described above with the NHL being a long season and teams having some bumps in the road. We all know the strong pedigree the Panthers have over the last few seasons and they're a team I trust more than others.
Giving up five goals to the Red Wings the other night isn't a “disaster” but it's just not what we've come to expect from an elite team. What I took away from that loss is that the Panthers had a whopping 43 shots on goal and when we look at their Expected Goals, they were up at 4.82, per MoneyPuck.
Hockey is a weird sport sometimes and even when the Panthers outshot the Red Wings 43-20, they can still lose the game. I will buy into the Panthers continuing that strong offensive push against a bad Anaheim Ducks defense.
Since the start of January, the Ducks have allowed 69.31 Total Shot Attempts per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. This brings me to Sam Reinhart, who is an elite goal-scorer and also a high-volume shooter.
He has a team-high 32 shots on goal over his last 10 games and has also gone two games without a goal. I know, two games doesn't seem like a lot but when you scored 57 goals last year and are well on your way to 40+ this year, two games actually does feel like a lot.
- Expert Picks Ducks vs. Panthers
- Sam Reinhart To Score A Goal (+255 on DraftKings with the +150 odds boost today)
- Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125 on FanDuel)
Best NHL Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 1/18
- Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120 on FanDuel)
Player News
Michael Soroka will start for the Nationals on Friday against the Padres.
The Nationals will then follow with Mitchell Parker on Saturday and MacKenzie Gore on Sunday, which means Jake Irvin will start on Monday against the Reds. This pitching matchup doesn’t set up well for Padres’ left-handed hitters like Gavin Sheets, who will get two left-handed pitchers over the weekend.
Brandon Walter will start on Friday against the Mariners.
The Astros will then follow with Lance McCullers Jr. on Saturday and Framber Valdez on Sunday, which means Hunter Brown and Colton Gordon will start the first two games of next week against the Diamondbacks. Walter has been solid in seven starts for the Astros this season and finds himself in a good streaming situation while pitching in T-Mobile Park.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Orioles are listening to trade offers for Félix Bautista and Trevor Rogers.
Rosenthal also made it clear that the Orioles are unlikely to deal either one, but they aren’t going to rule anything out if the right offer comes their way. Bautista is 30 years old and is arbitration-eligible for two more years after that, so there is no rush for Baltimore to move on. He’s had a strong first half of the season, but he’s also posting his lowest swinging strike rate and K-BB rate of his career, so perhaps Baltimore has some questions about his long-term upside following Tommy John surgery.
Sandy Alcantara will start on Friday against the Royals.
The Marlins will then start Cal Quantrill on Saturday and Janson Junk on Sunday, which means Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera will start the first two games of the series against the Padres. Alcantara has a 7.22 ERA in the first half of the season and will be hoping to start a bounceback with Friday’s game.
Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers are calling up 1B Rowdy Tellez.
With Jake Burger (wuad) landing on the injured list, the Rangers will turn to Rowdy Tellez to take his place on the active roster. The 30-year-old hit .208/.249/.434 with 11 homers in 185 plate appearances with the Mariners earlier this year before being released, but that also came with a 15.9 percent barrel rate. He hit well in four games at Triple-A for the Rangers, so the team will likely give him a shot to play regularly against right-handed pitching for now.
Connor Norby underwent surgery on a broken left hamate bone yesterday.
The Marlins originally said Norby was simply dealing with wrist inflammation, but clearly that wasn’t the case. The 25-year-old is expected to miss six to eight weeks recovering from the injury, which would put him on track for a mid-September return. Given that the Marlins aren’t in contention, there’s a chance Norby doesn’t make it back to the big leagues this season. Graham Pauley will get the first crack at the third base job for the Marlins, but the team may give a chance to Deyvison De Los Santos, who has played seven games at third base in Triple-A this season.