Stars vs. Oilers Predictions, Picks & Odds: WCF Game 4, 5/27
Stars vs. Oilers Predictions For Tonight's Western Conference Finals Game 4, 5/27
The Oilers play another home game tonight after going up 2-1 in the series with a big time win in Game 3 at home over the Stars. Stuart Skinner has taken center stage as he has locked in for the last couple of Edmonton wins but what version of him will we see tonight? I am banking on a return to normalcy as the Stars need this win tonight to knot up the series at two games a piece but let's dive into the trends.
Dallas Stars: Getting Over the Hump
Dallas has been one of the best teams in the NHL over the past few seasons but they have yet to win the coveted Stanley Cup. Some of the veterans have changed but the core led by Jamie Benn remains and they'll need the whole roster to come out ahead tonight.
Their goaltender Jake Oettinger was nails through much of the playoffs but he's bit a snag the last 2 games allowing 9 goals on 59 shots for a SV% in the .800s. He will be the key if the Stars can claw their way back in the series and he must outplay Stuart Skinner on the other end of the ice.
On the offensive side the Stars are normally a high flying offense but in this series they have just 7 goals through 3 games which is well below expectations. The offense has been led all postseason by trade deadline acquisition Mikko Rantanen who has 21 points and is tied for 2nd overall in the NHL playoffs in points, look for him to be more involved tonight.
Edmonton Oilers: Continue the Dominance at Home
The Oilers are now just 2 wins from getting back to the Stanley Cup Finals just like last season and the formula remains the same, win at home! The Oilers are 5-1 in front of the home crowd this postseason and have outscored their opponents 29-16 in the goals department during this run.
The offense is not the issue clearly as Connor McDavid has 22 points and is leading the NHL in playoff points and in addition Leon Draisaitl is right behind him with 21 points. Their powerplay have been another strength as they've scored 25.7% of the time but they do fall a little short on the penalty kill at just 65.9% overall. Look for the Oilers to continue pushing their agenda which is the best defense is a great offense controlling the puck.
The real wild card is Stuart Skinner in the net for the Oilers tonight who leads the postseason in shutouts with 3 but he is also just 4-4 this postseason with a SV% of .902 and ranks middle of the pack in goals saved above expected amongst postseason goaltenders.
Stars vs. Oilers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines, Game 4
- Puck Line: Dallas Stars +1.5 (-185) vs. Edmonton Oilers -1.5 (+155)
- Money Line: Dallas Stars (+130) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-155)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 (+110) vs. Under 6.5 (-130)
Stars vs. Oilers Game 4 Best Bet: Dallas Stars Over 2.5 Goals (-140 on DraftKings)
I spent a lot of time in this article talking about how Stuart Skinner can be great but he just can't be trusted night in and night out. That's the narrative I find myself wagering on tonight as he is going to regress in a negative way against this Stars team that won't be pinned down forever and score on average at least 3 goals per game.
I won't be as bold as to pick the total to go over 6.5 goals or even the Stars to win the game as underdogs but I fully believe they find a way to pot 3 goals tonight as the Oilers are bad on the penalty kill and will allow odd man rushes given the up tempo style they play. Stars over 2.5 goals, go lock that wager in and let's see if the Stars can get back into this series.
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Cardinals INF prospect JJ Wetherholt went 2-for-5 with a solo home run for Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday.
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Rays 1B prospect Bob Seymour went 4-for-4 with three solo home runs for Triple-A Durham on Tuesday.
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