Underdog NFL Picks For Sunday, 9/29: Football Projections + More
Week 4 of the NFL season brings us a bunch of interesting matchups to breakdown especially when it comes to the NFL DFS projections on Underdog for their NFL pick'em contests.
For our Underdog NFL picks for Week 4 we are looking at a trio of wide receivers that find themselves in great spots to surpass their current NFL DFS projections set over on Underdog this week and when you combine all three picks we are looking at a 6x payout multiplier on the week.
Underdog NFL Picks, Sunday, 9/29: NFL DFS Projections
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Jakobi Meyers NFL Underdog Pick: Higher Than 4.0 Receptions
Meyers has finished with at least four receptions in each of the last two weeks and now the Raiders will be without Davante Adams in their Week 4 matchup against the Browns. With the Cleveland defense likely focusing in on tight end Brock Bowers I'll be looking to see Meyers getting open underneath the defense, allowing for easy throws and completions as the move the ball down the field.
Darnell Mooney NFL Underdog Pick: Higher Than 38.5 Receiving Yards
I loved this landing spot for Mooney heading into the year and the last two weeks are exactly why. He has seen a good amount of targets while finishing with over the 38.5 receiving yard total in both games. He is a downfield threat that defenses can't allocate a ton of resources to stopping given that Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson are drawing more of the attention.
DJ Moore NFL Underdog Pick: Higher Than 55.5 Receiving Yards
The Rams passing defense has been among the worst in football this season and now we have a home matchup for the Bears with rookie QB Caleb Williams coming off of his best passing performance as a pro. We saw Moore go over this total in Week 3 and he has seen 10 targets in each of the last two games. I'm going right back to the well with Moore carving up this Rams secondary on Sunday.
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Player News
Packers signed WR Bo Melton, RB Emanuel Wilson, and P Daniel Whelan to their exclusive rights free agent tenders.
Melton caught on with the Packers in 2023, totaling 16 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown in five games. He added eight receptions for 91 yards in 17 games last season. Melton will continue to be a depth piece in an already-deep Packers wide receiver room. Wilson has also been with the Packers for two seasons and rushed for 502 yards and four touchdowns as Josh Jacobs’ immediate backup last season. He will compete with MarShawn Lloyd for that role again. Whelan is the team’s punter and will be back for 2025. All three signed their exclusive rights free agent tender and will essentially be on one-year contracts this season.
Seahawks re-signed Johnathan Hankins to a one-year contract.
Hankins hasn’t had a PFF run defense grade above 52.4 since 2020 and is primarily called on to play early downs. He turned 33 in March. He’ll be a complimentary piece behind Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy II if he makes the roster out of training camp.
Chargers placed the UFA tender on RB J.K. Dobbins.
This gives the Chargers exclusive negotiating rights if he does not sign with a team by July 22 or the first 2025 NFL training camp opens, whichever comes first. The tag is mainly useful for compensatory pick reasons as Dobbins will still count towards Los Angeles’ haul in the formula if signed before then. The Chargers currently do not project to add a pick in 2026 per Over The Cap’s Nick Korte.
49ers signed OT D.J. Humphries.
Humphries played in only two games for the Chiefs last year as he spent most of the season rehabbing a late 2023 torn ACL on his own. He wasn’t appreciably good in either of those games, but he was rusty and does have a history of better than that. Entering his age-32 season for the 49ers, he’ll probably be trying to win the right tackle job opposite Trent Williams in training camp.
Patriots released LS Joe Cardona.
The team selected his replacement, Julian Ashby, in the seventh round of the draft. This snapper of balls who are longer than usual is only 33, and it’s possible he picks up his career elsewhere. There aren’t too many remaining Patriots Regimes in the wild in 2025, but Nick Caserio does still run the Texans and they let Jon Weeks walk this offseason so that’s one speculative fit.
NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill said he would be “flabbergasted” if Derek Carr played for the Saints this year.
“I would have trouble understanding why you would allow that to happen, you’re trying to build a new culture, you can’t let that guy ... you just got a rookie QB, this is the example you’re going to give him,” Underhill continued. Both Underhill and Mike Triplett believe Tyler Shough will be starting for the Saints in Week 1, with Underhill saying he had “80 percent or higher odds to start 80 percent of the games this year.” Shough would be an uninspiring superflex pick, perhaps a QB3, but given how things have played out with Carr over the past months it sure doesn’t seem like the Saints have a reason to want to continue this relationship. Mickey Loomis literally asked reporters to stop asking him Carr questions at his pre-draft press conference.