Underdog NFL DFS Picks For Week 3 TNF, 9/19: Football Projections + More
Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC East battle for the second straight week as the New England Patriots head on the road to face off against the New York Jets.
The Patriots blew a late lead in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks while Aaron Rodgers finally secured his first win in a New York Jets uniform as he beat the Tennessee Titans.
- Underdog Fantasy NFL Free Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Higher Than 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Underdog NFL DFS Picks, Thursday, 9/19: NFL DFS Projections
For our Underdog NFL Week 3 picks we are looking at the Patriots offense with Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry leading the charge and for the Jets we take a look at the passing attempts projection for Aaron Rodgers here in his first matchup against the Patriots in this storied rivalry.
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Hunter Henry NFL Underdog Pick: Higher Than 3.5 Receptions
Henry had eight catches in Week 2 and came into this season with the expectation that he would be among the top pass catchers on the Patriots offense given their lack of high-end skill position players.
With Jacoby Brissett rarely looking to throw the ball down field this matchup is setting up nicely for Hunter Henry to be schemed open for easy throws and first down conversations.
Aaron Rodgers NFL Underdog Pick: Lower Than 30.5 Pass Attempts
Rodgers has yet to throw more than 30 pass attempts in a game this season and with the low game total and expected slow pace of play it seems unlikely that this would be the matchup where he is forced to drop back and sling it.
Both teams want to run the football, kill the clock, and let their defenses do the work. We are going to go with lower than 30.5 pass attempts here today.
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Player News
Packers signed WR Bo Melton, RB Emanuel Wilson, and P Daniel Whelan to their exclusive rights free agent tenders.
Melton caught on with the Packers in 2023, totaling 16 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown in five games. He added eight receptions for 91 yards in 17 games last season. Melton will continue to be a depth piece in an already-deep Packers wide receiver room. Wilson has also been with the Packers for two seasons and rushed for 502 yards and four touchdowns as Josh Jacobs’ immediate backup last season. He will compete with MarShawn Lloyd for that role again. Whelan is the team’s punter and will be back for 2025. All three signed their exclusive rights free agent tender and will essentially be on one-year contracts this season.
Seahawks re-signed Johnathan Hankins to a one-year contract.
Hankins hasn’t had a PFF run defense grade above 52.4 since 2020 and is primarily called on to play early downs. He turned 33 in March. He’ll be a complimentary piece behind Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy II if he makes the roster out of training camp.
Chargers placed the UFA tender on RB J.K. Dobbins.
This gives the Chargers exclusive negotiating rights if he does not sign with a team by July 22 or the first 2025 NFL training camp opens, whichever comes first. The tag is mainly useful for compensatory pick reasons as Dobbins will still count towards Los Angeles’ haul in the formula if signed before then. The Chargers currently do not project to add a pick in 2026 per Over The Cap’s Nick Korte.
49ers signed OT D.J. Humphries.
Humphries played in only two games for the Chiefs last year as he spent most of the season rehabbing a late 2023 torn ACL on his own. He wasn’t appreciably good in either of those games, but he was rusty and does have a history of better than that. Entering his age-32 season for the 49ers, he’ll probably be trying to win the right tackle job opposite Trent Williams in training camp.
Patriots released LS Joe Cardona.
The team selected his replacement, Julian Ashby, in the seventh round of the draft. This snapper of balls who are longer than usual is only 33, and it’s possible he picks up his career elsewhere. There aren’t too many remaining Patriots Regimes in the wild in 2025, but Nick Caserio does still run the Texans and they let Jon Weeks walk this offseason so that’s one speculative fit.
NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill said he would be “flabbergasted” if Derek Carr played for the Saints this year.
“I would have trouble understanding why you would allow that to happen, you’re trying to build a new culture, you can’t let that guy ... you just got a rookie QB, this is the example you’re going to give him,” Underhill continued. Both Underhill and Mike Triplett believe Tyler Shough will be starting for the Saints in Week 1, with Underhill saying he had “80 percent or higher odds to start 80 percent of the games this year.” Shough would be an uninspiring superflex pick, perhaps a QB3, but given how things have played out with Carr over the past months it sure doesn’t seem like the Saints have a reason to want to continue this relationship. Mickey Loomis literally asked reporters to stop asking him Carr questions at his pre-draft press conference.