Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy & Picks For Week 5: Seattle Seahawks & More
On one hand, the 2024 NFL season already feels like it’s flying by. On the other, it’s only Week 5 and we have a long way to go, especially when it comes to making survivor pool picks and figuring out the best survivor pool strategy.
Funny enough, last week was the first of the season where making survivor pool picks felt more normal. The San Francisco 49ers were the heaviest favorite and won handily and we also suggested the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, both of whom escaped victorious despite some slow starts.
The pick that disappointed most was the New York Jets who got upset at home in bad weather by the Denver Broncos. They were recommended, but if you’ve been following the Best Survivor Pool Strategy article, we laid out in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide, you probably avoided it.
I did, thankfully, but that’s more about me not believing in a team that has routinely disappointed me for the last 50 years. But it’s a new week and if you’re here, you’re ready to make your survivor pool picks for NFL Week 5.
Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy For 2024 NFL Week 5
Someone once told me the best survivor pool strategy is to take a team that wins each week. Funny, right? But it's true. We are now heading into our fifth week and the early-season chaos, for the most part, should be behind us. That’s not to say we aren’t going to continue to see upsets moving forward, but teams are finally starting to sort themselves out and water is finding its proper level.
That means, when it comes to making our survivor pool picks, we’re going to stick with what we consider to be the best survivor pool strategy. We’re staying focused on the home teams, looking for big point spreads and looking for money lines that are juiced to the hills. We need to hang around the big favorites right now and get ourselves through the month of October.
Keep in mind that if you are competing in Circa Survivor still, that you have to save teams for Thanksgiving and Christmas Day. Dallas, Detroit and Green Bay all have favorable matchups for Week 13 and then we’ve got some trouble brewing in Week 17 as the three potential favorites are all on the road. But we can worry about Week 17 much later.
Keep the Chiefs, Ravens and Seahawks in mind, but be careful not to plan too far in advance. Let’s stay focused here on Week 5, stick to the best survivor pool strategy and let’s get to making our NFL Week 5 survivor pool picks. Fair warning – this is not going to be an easy week.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks For Week 5
Seattle Seahawks (-6 Favorite; -275 Money Line)
The Seahawks are likely to be the chalk pick of the week if you’re abiding by the best survivor pool strategy. They’re at home, their offense is really starting to click and they’re at full health.
Meanwhile, the Giants are not a good football team, they’re traveling across the country, and they are dealing with injuries to Devin Singletary, Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson. All three are still expected to play, but the Seattle defense is going to give this middling offense some fits.
Seattle ranks ninth overall in DVOA, they’re limiting opposing quarterbacks to an 88.6 passer rating and this secondary is likely to get a few turnovers once Daniel Jones starts throwing. We’re definitely backing the home team here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5 Favorite; -250 Money Line)
If you’ve taken the Seahawks with a previous survivor pool pick, then the Chiefs come in as a strong option at home on Monday Night Football. Yes, there is some risk with the prime-time game as weird things can happen, but I think the Chiefs defense can stand up to whatever the Saints throw at them.
The key against the Saints is stopping the run and the Chiefs rank second in DVOA against the run, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. They don’t need to shut out Alvin Kamara; just contain him a little. And then, obviously, we need Patrick Mahomes to be his usual self.
New Orleans is allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game with six passing touchdowns allowed. Mahomes will lean on Travis Kelce but look for him to really start spreading the ball around with Rashee Rice on the shelf.
Washington Commanders (-3.5 Favorite; -175 Money Line)
If you’ve used the Seahawks and Chiefs or are looking to save either for the holidays, the Commanders come in this week in a really good spot.
The point spread isn’t that great, and the money line is less than what we would like to see, but you have to look at the way these teams are playing right now. I’m not going to declare Jayden Daniels as the MVP of the league, but it’s tough to ignore what he’s put together over these last two weeks.
It’s a tougher match-up against the Browns defense but given the way Cleveland has been trending thus far, it looks like Washington is going to be able to maintain this hot streak. That one last survivor bullet of mine is going here actually as I don’t have Seattle available.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5 Favorite; -350 Money Line)
If you don’t have the aforementioned three teams left for your survivor pool picks, then line up the 49ers at home against the Cardinals. Not only is Arizona struggling to find its way, but Kyler Murray’s level of play has been mediocre, at best, over the past two weeks.
The 49ers are starting to come into their own on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they should be able to limit Arizona, but on offense they really should dominate here.
The Cardinals defense struggles against the run so a lean on Jordan Mason is coming, coupled with the aerial assault led by Deebo Samel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. They should be a reliable survivor pool pick if you need to use them now.
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.