We close out Week 9 with another inter-conference matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the Midwest to go against the Kansas City Chiefs. We got a very good look at the Bucs last week sans Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and while they were competitive, they did lose for the third time in their last four games. So they’re seemingly limping into this matchup as the Chiefs remain as the last undefeated team in the NFL. Let’s examine the top plays and lineup building strategies for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Game Preview

As mentioned, the Bucs are coming in a little hobbled. And to make matters worse, the Atlanta Falcons are hitting their stride having won five of their last six games. Tampa has relinquished the NFC South lead amidst the injuries that are piling up on a weekly basis.

Chris Godwin is done for the year. Mike Evans isn’t practicing due to the hamstring injury he suffered during the same game Godwin got hurt. Even their replacement players like Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Bucky Irving all either didn’t practice or were limited in some capacity in preparation for this game. It’s gloomy in Tampa right now as this team clings to life in an attempt to save its season.

Meanwhile, things have seemingly never been better for the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite losing Rashee Rice for the season, Patrick Mahomes and Co. just keep winning and operating like a well-oiled machine. And you have to give them credit. They never look overly impressive, and Mahomes isn’t having a stellar season by any means.

But the defense is playing well and it’s easy to see why they’re favorites to once again land a Bye week in the playoffs and possibly emerge as the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are 7-0 and no other team in the AFC has even one loss. They’re sitting pretty as we reach the midway point of the season and they’re reasonable favorites once again heading into this matchup.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -9 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+340)
    • Chiefs (-440)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-110) / Under 45.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+340)
    • Chiefs (-430)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-114) / Under 45.5 (-106)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF, November 4th

Temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 60’s for this matchup. We do have some rain and showers in the forecast as well. Perhaps that lends Tampa Bay to running the ball more than originally thought. At the same time, winds won’t be much of a factor, but we’ll monitor the forecast more closely as we approach roster lock.

 

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Notable Injuries & Inactives

Mike Evans has already been ruled out for this game as he didn’t practice all week due to his hamstring injury. Additionally for Tampa Bay, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard are all questionable. I am optimistic McMillan plays. His hamstring injury popped up late in the week on the injury report. Irving and Shepard didn’t practice until Saturday and even then, they were limited. On the defensive side of the ball, Antoine Winfield Sr. didn’t practice on Saturday and he’s questionable with a foot injury while Tykee Smith is questionable with a concussion, but he did clear concussion protocol.

The Chiefs are in far better shape for this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. They’ll be without rookie tight end, Jared Wiley, who tore his ACL and is done for the year. But he was already buried on the depth chart as it is. The kid still possesses great size and good athleticism so hopefully he can return to the form he flashed a TCU ahead of next season. The only other noteworthy player is JuJu Smith-Schuster who is out with a hamstring injury.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/4

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,000

I like the volume for Kareem Hunt. I just don’t particularly care for the efficiency. In his four brief games with Kansas City, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Over his last three games he’s averaging just 3.4 YPC. But volume is the name of the game and he certainly touches the ball plenty.

Hunt has 20+ carries in three straight games with some receptions baked in as well. Moreover, he gets high value touches with four touchdowns over his last three games. The Bucs allow 5.2 yards per carry which was the most of any team entering Week 9 and they grade out as the sixth worst run defense in the league. Vita Vea does help stuff the run but it’s pretty clear that the team overall struggles to stop the ground game.

The Chiefs are also nine-point favorites in this game. If they possess a big enough or comfortable enough lead in this game, it’s likely we see Hunt getting heavy volume once again.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Patrick Mahomes has the Super Bowls and the MVP awards. By far, he’s the quarterback in this game most GM’s would want to build around. But for this NFL DFS Showdown Playbook, Baker Mayfield might possess a higher ceiling.

Mayfield has definitely had to “do more” for the Bucs this year. Overall, volume has provided the upside. He does have nine interceptions on the year, but we disregard that when you see he’s thrown 21 touchdowns and rushed for two more.

Even if you just view his DraftKings game log he has four games this season with 27+ fantasy points, including three straight coming into this matchup. If we project Mayfield and the Bucs to be trailing, that still bodes well for the fantasy outlook. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in four straight games and he’s collected the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in four of his last five games.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

This is an outstanding price tag for Otton on FanDuel. With how beat up the rest of the Bucs pass catchers are, you have to imagine Otton is currently the top pass catching target in this offense.

Otton has seen 10 targets in back-to-back games and he’s caught 17 of them for 181 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tight ends rarely hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings but Otton did get there two weeks ago against Baltimore but largely needed garbage time to do so.

The Chiefs haven’t been great at covering tight ends. Brock Bowers caught five passes last week for 58 yards. George Kittle had six receptions for 92 yards. Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau combined for seven catches, 44 yards, and a touchdown. And we all remember what Isaiah Likely did in Week 1 against this defense.

The big concern for Otton is the coverage of the Chiefs. This Chiefs utilize a lot of man coverage (33.7% per Dataroma) and Otton doesn’t quite gain separation well. Against man coverage he sees just an 11% target per route run rate, 1.07 yards per route run, and 10.2% of the first-read targets.

Now let’s at least ask why this could be. Evans and Godwin fared much better against man coverage and were obviously target hogs for Mayfield. I don’t think we need to shy away from Otton because of the coverage. The volume is just too good to pass up especially in a trailing game script.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $12,500

Bucky Irving is a little beat up and didn’t log many practices this week. It does sounds like he’ll play but by playing him we risk re-injury or just rostering a limited player.

So we lean into White. Similar to Kareem Hunt, he hasn’t been efficient. But Hunt at least has the backfield to himself. White doesn’t have that luxury. Where White does thrive is in the passing game with short passes that he can turn into production for our NFL DFS lineups.

In his last two games, when called upon, White has stepped up catching 11-of-12 targets for 109 receiving yards. By comparison, in that same sample size he has just 69 rushing yards on 16 carries. But he’s also found the end zone three times over the last two weeks.

Alexander Mattison caught five passes just last week against the Chiefs. Alvin Kamara caught six. Justin Hill had six receptions against the Chiefs back in Week 1. These negative game scripts opponents find them in against Kansas City do correlate to pass catching volume for running backs.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $16,000

He’s the most expensive player on both sites but I just can’t bring myself to play him at Captain/MVP for this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. The ceiling has just been so low for him this year that he’s not even a must-start in season-long fantasy football leagues.

The Chiefs haven’t really required much of Mahomes. He’s completing 68.4% of his passes on the year and he’s averaging 235 passing yards per game. But he also has only eight touchdowns to nine interceptions. He’s yet to put up 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

You can play him at Captain if you want. The Chiefs have an implied team total of 27.25 points. If they’re putting up 27 points, he’s probably contributing. But I’m also predicting a large workload for Kareem Hunt. We know he’s capable of monstrous games with gawdy box scores. But we just haven’t seen it two months into the season.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $11,500

It may seem odd that I’m lumping these two together when they play different positions, but I’m doing this because based on the last two games since Kansas City’s bye week, these two have largely been the top targets for Patrick Mahomes.

Kelce has seen at least nine targets in three of his last four games. Last week he finally found the end zone while catching 10-of-12 targets for 90 yards. His first-read target share spiked to 48% last week and his target per route run rate increased from 19% in September to 28% in October.

The Bucs have struggled against tight ends. Kyle Pitts, who does line up frequently in the slot, scored twice last week on them. And in the first meeting this year between Atlanta and Tampa, Pitts caught seven passes for 88 yards. Mark Andrews scored twice on Tampa two weeks ago. Do they give up a pair of touchdowns to an opposing tight end for the third straight week? Time will tell!

Xavier Worthy makes this section as well because he’s been Mahomes’ other favorite weapon. But we’ll see how things play out with the next player in this article. In Week 7, Kansas City’s first game after the bye week, Worthy had a 35% first-read target share, but it was a quiet day because he caught just three-of-eight targets for 19 yards.

Now you’d think that because Kelce had a 48% first-read share in Week 8 that Worthy saw some regression, right? Technically you wouldn’t be wrong. But Worthy still saw 33% of the first-read targets in Week 8 and he found the end zone as well. Entering Week 9, Worthy ranked 12th among wide receivers in end zone target share (36%). His target per route run rate in September was at 14% while in October that ballooned to 27%. Perhaps this is a leverage spot as most assume the next player gets more work, but I’m intrigued at the thought of going overweight on Worthy, even with some shares at Captain.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

If you’re of the mindset that Hopkins should see more work, and you might be right, then you have to really like this spot for him. Hopkins is 32 years old and hasn’t even been with the team for two full weeks. It’s possible they’re still working him in, but he should still improve on last week’s snap count.

Hopkins, even at his age, is still good at beating zone coverage. Per Dataroma and Fantasy Points Data, Hopkins is averaging 22% TPRR, 1.84 YPRR, and a 10.9% first down per route run rate. Against zone, we see an improvement to 24% TPRR, 2.24 YPRR, and 11.5% 1D/RR. If the Bucs deploy Cover 3, as they have as well this season, Hopkins sees a 26% TPRR, 2.54 YPRR, and 15.4% 1D/RR.

All in all, this is still a risky play especially with how Kelce and Worthy have been trending after the bye week. But it’s also possible casual DFS players are worried about the workload for Hopkins in just his second game with the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Trey Palmer, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Obviously, we’ll be monitoring inactives around 6:45pm ET regarding the status of Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard. If one or both are active, then they deserve to be played. I just didn’t want to write them up because I tend to over-saturate these articles sometimes and just wanted to focus on my favorite plays within each range. But they’ll make the player pool below regardless.

Palmer gets a big upgrade even if just one of McMillan or Shep are inactive. We should also monitor his Twitter feed to see if he woke up “pissed off” because he tends to find the end zone when that happens. The Chiefs allow just 6.74 yards per pass attempt but we’re expecting volume for Mayfield. Palmer hasn’t seen a ton of involvement so far but there’s upside if the inactives fall his way.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Gray has 18 total targets on the year. He’s caught all but one of them. He’s been seeing more snaps as well. His snap share has gradually increased from 61% to 67% to 72% over his last three games. Is he being asked to mostly block? Sure, but since the team’s Bye week he’s caught all seven of his targets for 89 yards. That’s not awful production for a player priced this low. If he finds the end zone, he’s probably in the optimal lineup as a flex play.

We’ve already touched on how much the Bucs struggle against opposing tight ends. With both Wiley and Jody Fortson done for the year, the Chiefs have no tight end depth currently and Gray’s snap share has been increasing gradually. He’s probably my favorite value play under $4,000 on DraftKings.

Rakim Jarrett, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

I really thought about going with Sean Tucker in this spot. Ultimately, I’m struggling with that one. I’m assuming Bucky Irving will be active and if that’s the case I’m not sure how much of a role Tucker has unless Irving aggravates his injury.

Instead I’ll go with Jarrett. Given how hurt the Bucs are for pass catchers, Jarrett did catch all three of his targets last week for 58 yards. There are receivers ahead of him on the depth chart. But we know of the nagging injuries to McMillan and Shepard. It’s not a great play and one that might not pay off unless the Bucs are in garbage time. But at this $2,000 price tag you’ll take similar production to what he provided in Week 8. He only played 20 snaps last week, but similar to Palmer, we can upgrade him if McMillan and/or Palmer are out.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool, 11/4

Player Pool

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