We close out Week 13 with an AFC matchup as the Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. The Browns have the luxury of a few extra days off considering they played in Week 12 on Thursday Night Football. However, the Broncos have not yet had their Bye week. Fortunately, that comes next week and if this team can get the win to move to 8-5 they’ll be well rested when they return in Week 15 for their playoff push. Let’s take a look at the Browns vs. Broncos DFS picks as part of the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Browns vs. Broncos Game Preview

The Cleveland Browns come into this game following a strong win against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. However, they’re a bit beat up which will be detailed in the injury report section. But all in all, Jameis Winston has injected this team with some life despite another year where the Browns go into the offseason with several questions.

For this game specifically, the Browns will have their battles. Nick Chubb hasn’t been great since coming off IR. He scored twice against the Steelers, but his efficiency is way down and he doesn’t have a ton of involvement in the passing game. And to that point, the Broncos defense they’ll be going up against is no joke. They blitz at a high rate and employ arguably the best defensive back in the NFL, Pat Surtain. But they have the luxury of some extra rest for this game so hopefully that plays to their advantage.

The Broncos are on a roll. Bo Nix looks like he absolutely belongs in this league and they boast an elite defense. This team was a field goal away from upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs after all. After dropping their first two games of the year, the Broncos are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They have one of those coveted late-season Bye weeks lined up for Week 14. If they can go into the off week with another win, this team will have a comfortable two-game advantage for the last playoff spot in the AFC.

 

 

 

Browns vs. Broncos MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Broncos -6 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Browns (+220)
    • Broncos (-270)
  • Game Total: Over 42 (-112) / Under 42 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Browns (+235)
    • Broncos (-290)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-105) / Under 42.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Browns vs. Broncos MNF, December 2nd

This game is at elevation which is difficult for those who don’t normally play in these elements. Fortunately, the weather doesn’t look like it’ll be all that bad. Around kickoff, temperatures will be around 42 degrees with clear skies and very low winds. The temps will drop off slightly throughout the evening but there are no extreme weather conditions for this game.

 

Browns vs. Broncos Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Browns have ruled out Cedric Tillman for this game as he has not yet cleared concussion protocol. To go along with that there were some key players limited at practice this past week including Myles Harden, Greg Newsome II, and Germain Ifedi. It’s also worth mentioning that Jedrick Wills did not practice either so the secondary and offensive line may have to overcome some obstacles Monday night.

The hometown Denver Broncos are in much better shape. They will be without Riley Moss in the secondary and Josh Reynolds is questionable as well at receiver. Aside from that, their injury report is relatively clean.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/2

Courtland Sutton, WR, Cleveland Browns - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

Sutton is the most expensive player on DraftKings but the third-most expensive on FanDuel. Simply put, he’s been outstanding the last few weeks and I believe he hit a few optimal lineups on DraftKings for a stretch of four or five consecutive weeks as well.

The Browns do not have a very good secondary which bodes well for Sutton in this matchup. He’s coming off a game last week against Vegas where he caught 8-of-10 targets for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In three of his last five games, he’s gone for 97+ yards so we know he has a good chance to reach the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings.

Per Fantasy Points Data the Browns utilize both single-high (~65%, second highest in the NFL) and man coverage (~35%, seventh highest in the NFL) in excess rates. Sutton sees his yards per route run (YPRR) improve to 2.67 against single-high coverage with a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR) and against man coverage those numbers go up to 29% TPRR and 2.95 YPRR. And for both defensive schemes he draws a first-read target share over 30%.

His receiving yardage prop opened around 60.5 but it was at 63.5 as of Monday morning on some books. I’d still take the over on 63.5 considering he’s gone over that total in five straight games.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $16,500

No quarterback has made progress and as many strides as Bo Nix has this year. We all mocked the Broncos to a point about trading up to select him 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft but the team has done well bringing him along. He’s only turned the ball over once in his last six games and he has eight touchdowns in his last three games.

We also know he’s capable of rushing and providing production with his legs. He’s rushed for at least 25 yards in six games and he has four rushing touchdowns on the season. Strangely enough, he’s rushed for five or fewer yards in four of his last five games. But overall, this Cleveland defense has been worth targeting at the quarterback position and the Broncos offensive line is playing at a high level as they rank second in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus.

The Browns defense isn’t very good and in any DraftKings Pick6 or Underdog props I’m building out tonight, I’m also considering the under on his interception prop (0.5) since he’s been great at protecting the football.

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

We know there’s plenty of passing volume to go around in this offense. Cedric Tillman has been ruled out with a concussion. That’s frustrating because I’m not of the mindset the Broncos may try and have Pat Surtain shadow Jerry Jeudy in his revenge game. But that does open things up for Elijah Moore in the slot, albeit the matchup is still tricky.

Prior to Week 12, Moore had four straight games with at least seven targets, and we know he’s a bit of a deep threat. We will likely need a home run play or two from Moore for this one to hit. The Broncos secondary is a bit tough to throw on, but this is likely a negative game script for the Browns and that could benefit Moore.

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Let’s maybe try to strike on a breakout game, shall we? Devaughn Vele has been making a very strong case with the Denver Broncos to be the team’s WR2 next to Courtland Sutton. He’s coming off a game where he caught 6-of-9 targets for 80 yards, but it was Sutton who managed to find the end zone. We know this Browns secondary is soft and we can upgrade the Denver pass catchers.

Vele is also just a massive target for Nix as well. He stands at 6’4” and 210 pounds so he has the physical traits most NFL teams want in a receiver. I do imagine plenty of attention goes to Sutton and I don’t anticipate nearly as much Captain/MVP exposure going to Vele. Coming off last week’s game, we’re hoping the trend continues and we can get in early for this breakout game. For several of my parlay legs on Pick6 and Underdog I took the over on his receiving yardage total (right around 33.5 yards) but I’m not opposed to taking the over on his receptions as well.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $15,000

Winston’s obviously a pricier option on this slate. You can certainly play him at Captain/MVP. We know there’s a very high ceiling but also a very low floor. The Broncos are just a difficult matchup for opposing quarterbacks. While I think the Browns can put points on the board in this spot, I do think Jameis will be prone to turnovers as well.

The Broncos D/ST is firmly in play tonight because they blitz at the second-highest rate (33.3%) and they generate pressure at a 25.8% clip which is top 10 in the NFL. It’s part of the reason why they’ve returned double-digit fantasy points in seven games this year. And I think that potentially gives Winston fits especially with consolidated weapons since Tillman is out.

Winston is still capable of scratching and clawing his way to a productive game on sheer volume alone. The Browns have an implied team total just over 18 points which seems a bit disrespectful, but this team is wildly inconsistent. Winston’s going to need 40+ pass attempts but I do think there’s a path to 18+ fantasy points despite the tough matchup against a Denver defense giving up just 200 passing yards per game.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

Overall, I’m very low on Jeudy for tonight’s game. With Cedric Tillman out, everyone now assumes that Jeudy will see more of the coverage from Pat Surtain. But I also think Surtain will line up against Elijah Moore at times as well. And there have been games where Surtain didn’t follow or shadow receivers out of the slot.

That’s good news for Jeudy because he lines up in the slot for 34.4% of his routes. So that’s good news. However, he only sees about a 12% TPRR out of the slot which we obviously don’t love to see. He definitely sees more volume and an efficiency increase when he lines up out wide. But we didn’t see Surtain follow Zay Flowers into the slot a few weeks back and that is exactly where Flowers did most of his damage against this Denver secondary. So, I am downgrading Jeudy heavily for this matchup, but there’s a silver lining if Jeudy’s not lining up out wide against Surtain.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns - DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $12,000

I like Njoku from a volume perspective. Jameis Winston simply throws the ball enough where target shares don’t matter as much as the overall targets do. Njoku was terrible against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. In fact, he was dreadful. It was painful to watch as he dropped numerous passes, including one in the end zone that could’ve salvaged his game.

Prior to that matchup, he did have five straight games with at least seven targets. For a tight end, that’s outstanding. However, this matchup doesn’t really shape up well for him. If you’re going to roster him, it’s likely for leverage and hoping the volume returns. The Broncos defend the tight end position very well so I’m downgrading Njoku a little bit, but if Jameis Winston attempts 40+ passes then I think he can still deliver a good floor so long as he doesn’t drop too many targets.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

I would normally lead off writing up Javonte Williams by saying “this is a great price tag on DraftKings,” and it still is. But does it really matter at this point? Sure, we can probably assume he’ll get 10-to-12 carries and that’s not bad at $6,800 on DraftKings.

However, Williams is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry but if there’s a saving grace it’s that he has some involvement in the passing game. He has multiple receptions in every game dating back to Week 2. But again, he’s not exactly popping off unless he finds the end zone, and he’s done that just three times all year.

I know I sound down on Williams but when we consider the Broncos usually ride the “hot hand” in the backfield, I can stomach rostering Williams at just $6,800 as I’ll mostly play either him or Audric Estime. The Browns aren’t very good against the run as they’ve allowed 130.6 rushing yards per game this year.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns - DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

I skipped over Nick Chubb because I’m honestly higher on Jerome Ford for this game environment. Chubb found the end zone twice in Week 12 but overall, he hasn’t been very efficient since he came off IR, averaging just 3.0 YPC.

In a smaller sample size with 61 carries, Ford’s actually averaging 4.9 YPC and he has more involvement in the passing game. The Broncos have actually given up the fourth-most receptions to opposing running backs and in a negative game script, I think Ford gets more run and if you can still get him at over 12.5 receiving yards, I’d take that line.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

We know the Browns can be beaten on the ground (over 130 rushing yards per game allowed) and we also know that Javonte Williams is coming off a week where he rushed for negative yards. No one is really laying claim to the RB1 role in this offense.

If the Broncos get out to a big enough lead, we may see them get Estime rolling. But Estime and McLaughlin register about a 20-25% rush share so we’re really just trying to guess and land on the running back that has the hot hand and maybe finds the end zone.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $6,500

Adam Trautman, TE, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $6,500

Outside of Courtland Sutton we don’t have a clear read on who else could produce for Denver. Devaughn Vele has made a strong case to be the team’s WR2. But outside of those two no receiver runs more than 50% of the routes and the targets are relatively consolidated.

As we get to this range, we acknowledge that we’re throwing darts and hoping for a touchdown. I feel decent about Humphrey and Trautman getting some targets because they’re Sean Payton’s guys and they have his trust from their time in New Orleans. But you’ll see in the player pool below I cast a rather wide net with Broncos players and I’ll be mixing them all in across my 20 lineups on DraftKings tonight.

 

 

 

Browns vs. Broncos DFS Player Pool, 12/2

Player Pool

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