Let’s wrap up the weekend and hopefully avoid the Sunday scaries with some Chiefs vs. Falcons DFS picks for Sunday Night Football. Kansas City got off to a 2-0 start this season with close wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. The offense hasn’t quite hit its stride just yet, and another obstacle they must overcome will be the loss of Isiah Pacheco who broke his leg in Week 2. Can they get the ground game going without him? Will they carry four running backs that will appear in the player pool for our Sunday Night Football DFS picks?

The Chiefs will visit the Falcons in this matchup who are fresh off a huge win against the Philadelphia Eagles and they’ll be inducting Arthur Blank into their Ring of Honor for this game. It’s a fun slate with a few different storylines to be mindful of. Let’s take a look at how to approach roster construction with the latest Chiefs vs. Falcons DFS picks!

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Falcons DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 9/22

I love when we get NFL DFS Showdown slates with uncertainties. This puts us in position to build lineups out a variety of ways. A lot of my Showdown builds always revolve around how I see game scripts unfolding. For example, if we predict a low-scoring affair in bad weather, then we lean heavier on running backs and probably play both D/ST’s while avoiding kickers. If we think games go into a shootout, then we attract pass catchers at Captain and correlate with their quarterback while laying off the defenses. Obviously, we’re casting a wide net with these examples and the narratives at play vary from slate to slate.

The Kansas City Chiefs visit Atlanta without Isiah Pacheco. They also just signed Kareem Hunt to their practice squad. We need to keep in mind that Hunt needs a ramp up period and we don’t know what shape he’s in, so for that reason he will not be elevated to the active roster for this specific game. Currently the Chiefs have Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Keaontay Ingram on the roster. It’s hard to imagine them carrying four running backs for this game. Pacheco accounted for 45.6% of the total team touches, which ranked third among all running backs. That’s a large workload to potentially distribute.

For Atlanta, they’re coming off a must-need win against the Eagles and without Pacheco on the other side, it’s possible they can pull off the upset in this particular game. If Saquon Barkley makes that short yardage catch last week and scores, we’re looking at the Falcons in a different light. 90% of the time, Barkley likely brings in the catch and waltzes into the end zone.

But Atlanta’s last drive helped Drake London hit pay dirty and get into the end zone. It also helped give us a little more confidence in Kirk Cousins as a fantasy option after he looked horrible against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Cousins will still be prone to mistakes. Who do we target for our Sunday Night Football DFS contests? Let’s take a look! 

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-162)
    • Falcons (+136)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-120)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-172)
    • Falcons (+144)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF, September 22nd

It’ll be a nice day on Sunday in Atlanta and as we get to the evening temperatures will be in the low 70’s with light winds. This game will likely be played indoors in a controlled environment for Arthur Blank’s induction into the organization’s ring of honor. It’s possible they open up that iris roof mechanism that is a signature of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But I’d say it’s most likely they keep the roof closed.

 

Chiefs vs. Falcons Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 3

As of Friday morning, both teams have a relatively clean injury report. For the home team, the Falcons listed backup running back, Tyler Allgeier, on the injury report after a limited practice on Wednesday. But he practiced in full on Thursday. Defensive end James Smith-Williams was limited Thursday with a hip injury.

Kansas City listed a few players on their injury report including Xavier Worthy with a hip injury. However, he practiced in full on Wednesday and Thursday. So we know who is likely in and out regarding injuries. 

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Atlanta’s offense basically runs through Bijan Robinson. Through two games he has 32 carries and nine receptions. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but even despite that he’s averaging just over 16 fantasy points per game in full PPR formats. The touchdowns will certainly come.

Per Joe Orrico, here are Robinson’s ranks through two weeks at running back:

Yards After Contact: 3.6 (4th)

Yards Per Attempt: 5.2 (6th)

Broken Tackle Rate: 18.8% (3rd)

Evasion Rate: 31% (4th)

I list these particular rates because these are indicative of a player that can break big plays on their own. And if that’s the case, then positive touchdown regression is coming, especially after Atlanta showed signs of life in Week 2 after a disappointing showing against Pittsburgh in Week 1.

Overall, Bijan flat out dominates the touches on this team and it takes me back to my original point about the offense running through him. Bijan accounts for 47.7% of the total team touches (rushing attempts and receptions) according to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports. That’s second among running backs just behind Josh Jacobs.

The Chiefs have allowed 259 rushing yards, but 122 of those came from Lamar Jackson in Week 1. All in all, running backs have been stuffed by the defending Super Bowl champs. But we do value Bijan’s role in the passing game and there are a variety of ways he can collect fantasy points in this matchup.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $17,000

Mahomes is the most expensive option on FanDuel because most of the time, quarterbacks and wide receivers are the optimal MVP’s over there. And while I normally prefer quarterbacks with rushing upside at Captain, I can’t opt out of the greatest quarterback in the game currently.

Mahomes’ fantasy output hasn’t been anything noteworthy of late. Perhaps it’s because of the increased league-wide usage of Cover 2 that Mel Kiper wants banned. But Mahomes has yet to throw 30+ pass attempts in a game so far and he touts a 3:3 TD:INT ratio.

But with the loss of Isiah Pacheco, maybe that unleashes Mahomes a bit more, even potentially as a runner. And with the Chiefs losing Hollywood Brown for the year, it just consolidates things a little more on offense.

We saw Jalen Hurts put up almost 25 fantasy points against the Falcons last week on DraftKings. Sure, Hurts has more rushing upside than Mahomes but we’ve seen this guy prance into the end zone before so he’s more than content taking the reigns when he needs to.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

I initially thought about putting Rice at the bottom of the Captain recommendations for our SNF DFS picks, but then I looked at the data and I think we’re justified prioritizing him over Drake London.

Sure, Rice is going to draw some coverage from A.J. Terrell, but I haven’t been overly impressed with Terrell through two games despite the contract extension he received. Through two games, Rashee Rice is sporting a 35% first read target share and a 30% target per route run rate. Moreover, he’s averaging 10 yards after the catch as well. 

He went off for over 100 yards in Week 1 for the bonus on DraftKings, but also found the end zone last week against Cincinnati. So either way, it does feel like he can find ways to give us a return on investment. He’s currently seventh in receiving yards among wide receivers and with Mahomes down a weapon, he could lean on Rice a bit more.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $11,500

There were plenty of debates during fantasy football draft season about whether or not Drake London’s elevated ADP was justified. Week 1 left a lot to be desired, but he bounced back in Week 2 with six receptions on seven targets, but he also caught the game-winning touchdown to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in primetime.

London actually came away with a 47% first-read target share in that game, and we love that trend heading into this kind of game script. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, London may actually have one of the better matchups this week. If the Chiefs opt to line Trent McDuffie mostly in the slot then London likely sees more coverage out wide against Jaylen Watson or Nazeeh Johnson where the Chiefs have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

We do need a little more volume from this play, and hopefully some deeper looks. But if Cousins is smart and learned anything from Monday’s game-winning drive, it’s that he should be looking to his star receiver more.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Cousins certainly struggled in his first game with the Falcons. I made note in last Monday’s Showdown Playbook that he lacked mobility and the play calling was far too conservative by Zac Robinson.

The play calling was more aggressive in Week 2, but the mobility still looked off for a 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. But the final drive was very impressive and all the talk on Atlanta sports radio stations this week has been about how good it feels to have a quarterback that you know is capable of one of those drives.

While the talking heads are still celebrating Monday’s win, on a short week the Falcons have to get right back to it. Joe Burrow went out last Sunday and put up about 18 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs. If Cousins goes out and puts up a similar performance, you’ll take that out of a flex play. Volume hasn’t been there, but that’s also been the case for Mahomes. Hopefully we can get 35+ pass attempts from both in this matchup.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

I’ll be completely honest, I struggled to list Kelce as a core play. Even at the time of publishing, I’m still not 100% sold. It’s not the four catches on seven targets for 40 yards to start the year. Everyone gets off to a slow start, and the tight end position is once again a mess.

What does concern me about Travis Kelce is that he just isn’t really being looked at by Mahomes. And yeah, it’s very likely Kelce is showing his age and is just slower overall. But he only has a 12.5% first read target share and 13.2% target per route run rate through two games. 

But at the end of the day, I have growing optimism for Mahomes’ favorite weapons due to the loss of Pacheco. And he’s still a big target once this team gets in the red zone so if Mahomes can find his guy, Kelce can provide value in that regard. But overall, through two weeks, he has not justified this price tag.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

The price tag is far better on FanDuel than DraftKings. But he’s live for both sites. Week 2 was a dud for Worthy, but we can’t forget that he found the end zone twice in Week 1.

Worthy’s reception numbers in comparison to Rashee Rice aren’t great obviously. However, Worthy has a 17.5% first read target share, which is half Rice’s rate, but at the same time still more than Kelce, and Worthy’s averaging 11.5 yards after the catch (but in a very small sample size). They did try to get him going last week, but nothing came to fruition.

At the end of the day, he is still a speedy deep threat and that price tag on FanDuel makes lineup construction much easier for tournaments. One thing that holds him back is the team’s usage of 11 personnel because they’ve only done so 45% of the time through two games. Kansas City tends to get multiple tight ends on the field more than most teams and that’s resulted in Worthy running a route on 74% of Mahomes’ drop backs. 

So we need to understand this is mostly a tournament suggestion because he may not draw enough volume for cash games. But he’s a big play threat and can make the optimal lineup with a deep score.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

Mooney pops up at a great price tag on this slate. Sure, it’s a little discouraging that a cheaper pass catcher is leading the Falcons in targets. However, Mooney has a great ceiling for these Falcons vs. Chiefs DFS picks in the mid-tier.

Mooney has a 21.9% first read target share which is second on the team behind Drake London. But he’s also a deep target for Cousins, which is what we have evidenced by his 153 air yards through two games. 

He’s coming off seven targets against the Eagles. I’ll probably mix him into some lineups as my Captain because of the big play potential and that will correlate well with Kirk Cousins as a flex play.

Carson Steele, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,500

Any running back in this game not named Bijan Robinson is a complete dart throw. I don’t even love Steele’s price tag. But I can also say the same for Samaje Perine. But Steele had some highlights during the preseason and he logged seven carries for 24 yards last week when Pacheco went out, but Steele also lost a fumble.

I don’t personally care about the lack of speed at the combine. Sure, a 4.7-second 40-yard dash isn’t great. But running back is a position of opportunity and even if he’s getting the goal line work, that’s tremendous value. And not to mention, he had 11 carries in the preseason with 11 avoided tackles and 87 rushing yards.

This is an aggressive price tag for a player who hasn’t shown they’re worth it. Perhaps that lowers ownership a bit, but all three running backs for Kansas City are in play and we’ll have to keep an eye on who is getting the first-team reps during warmups.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

We’re faced with a difficult proposition with McCloud: do we continue to chase the production of a two-weeks sample size for a glorified, journeyman special teamer?

The first-read target data is a little more balanced among the Atlanta pass catchers. But still, McCloud is getting 18.8% of the first read looks from Cousins and he has a 24% target per route run rate. I avoided him largely on the Monday slate and opted for Darnell Mooney. Mooney at least got us there with a score.

But for a very cheap DFS option on this slate, it’s hard to ignore a guy with at least five targets in each of the first two weeks and he has at least three receptions and 42 yards in both performances to start the 2024 NFL season.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $7,000

If the first two games are any sign of what Travis Kelce is capable of this year, then we have to look to Noah Gray. But understand that you’ll either get three catches like in Week 1, or zero similar to Week 2.

The two big things in his favor are obviously the absence of Isiah Pacheco, and the fact the Chiefs utilize multiple tight end sets more than a majority of teams in the league. That obviously puts Gray in play. He’s not going to garner many first read targets, but he is capable of getting a few targets and he’s likely optimal if they can somehow get him into the end zone.

And if you need an absolute punt for this slate, Jared Wiley is in play and he’s nearly the min price. He’s a rookie out of TCU who only has one catch on the year, but he will not carry a ton of ownership. If building 20+ lineups I’d say you’ll gain leverage with Wiley in about three lineups.

Keaontay Ingram, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

I don’t love the play because the volume is very difficult to project. But with Ingram, he was at least elevated to the active roster. And as it stands the Chiefs have three running backs on the active roster.

We don’t need many touches in this spot, but there’s a shot he can hit value if he just so happens to be the hot hand if the Chiefs give him the ball. He’s not my favorite value play when you can pay $600 more on DraftKings for Noah Gray, but the price tags on Perine and Steele are tough to come to terms with.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Both teams have an implied team total in the low-to-mid 20’s according to DraftKings and FanDuel’s sportsbooks. I really don’t know why DraftKings is so aggressive with their pricing for kickers this early on in the year. Harrison Butker is locked in at $5,000 while Younghoe Koo is $4,800. Both kickers can reach 10 fantasy points in this matchup which is fine. 

Atlanta’s offense showed some life last week and put Koo in position for three field goals even if they all were from close range. Koo is four-for-four on the year and none of them have been from 40+ yards out.

Butker has gone four-for-four as well this year with a pair of field goal attempts in each game. He may offer a slightly better floor than Koo since the Chiefs are favored by a field goal and have the best quarterback in the game running the offense. It’s very possible he gets at least two field goal attempts for the third straight week. And as we say every time with kickers, there is positive correlation if playing a kicker at the flex with their quarterback at Captain.

The Kansas City Chiefs D/ST has returned 4 and 11 fantasy points respectively on DraftKings through two games. They’ve allowed a total of 45 points and 772 yards of offense. They have only collected four sacks with two forced turnovers. The defensive front is good and can get sacks against a quarterback lacking mobility like Kirk Cousins. The Chiefs offense can sometimes dictate the opposing team’s running game. If teams are chasing and trying to keep up, they tend to throw more. Nearly half the rushing yards allowed by the Chiefs through two games are credited to Lamar Jackson’s performance in Week 1.

For the Falcons D/ST, we haven’t seen much through two games, but they’ve allowed 323 rushing yards through two weeks. Before you go on thinking that’s good news for Carson Steele it’s worth mentioning that Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts account for 142 of those yards.

Atlanta’s only forced one turnover and collected three sacks through two games. So the addition of Matthew Judon, while great on the surface, hasn’t led to too many big scores from the Falcons D/ST as they’ve returned just three fantasy points on DraftKings in both their games. But they are a $1,000 discount off the Chiefs D/ST. 

Both teams feature some of the best offensive lines in the game. Maybe sacks are hard to come by in this game? At the end of the day, we’re still trying to break down a position of variance. Both are fine to play in this game and you’ll need either one in your build if they happen to pop off for a pick six or a kick return for a touchdown.

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Falcons DFS Player Pool: SNF, 9/22

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