If I told you back in August that a random Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos game would have big implications, you might have thought I was crazy. But that’s what we have here. This is an important game for both teams. 

The Broncos have managed a surprisingly good start and are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Meanwhile the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons are fighting to stay atop the NFC South. This should make for a good matchup and the close spread agrees. It’s our job to dig into the data, narratives, and injuries as always for our Week 11 Falcons vs. Broncos predictions. 

Even if you just want to see the Falcons vs. Broncos odds and have Falcons vs. Broncos picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $200 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! 

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Broncos Predictions For NFL Week 11, Sunday 11/17

As this is an out of conference game, these teams rarely play. The Falcons have actually won the last three matchups between these teams, but those games were in 2020, 2016, and 2012. These are two vastly different organizations even compared to last season, let alone four years ago.

The Falcons are coming off a bad loss to a Saints team struggling with injuries. They had won five of the previous six before that. The Broncos lost a close on to the Chiefs last week on a game-winning blocked field goal - prior to that they were blown out by the Ravens after beating the Panthers and Saints. 

 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson Heating Up

Bijan Robinson dealt with some injuries early on, especially an AC joint issue. But over the last few weeks he has really gotten hot with five straight games with 100+ yards from scrimmage. Drake London will have a tough assignment this week with Pat Surtain, so a lot falls on Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts in the passing game this week. Mooney was dealing with an achilles issue, but he has been cleared to play. 

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s defense has struggled a bit. That’s especially true against the pass where they rank 26th in DVOA per FTN Fantasy. AJ Terrell has been solid but outside of him the secondary has been lacking. They’re also allowing nearly 130 yards per game on the ground, so they have not been stellar in that aspect either. 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos: Will Audric Estime Take Over This Backfield?

Javonte Williams had dominated the snaps thus far for the Denver backfield followed by Jaleel McLaughlin. But this past week the Broncos took a “hot hand” approach and rookie Audric Estime grabbed the reigns and ran with them from the second quarter on. It will be interesting to see if he keeps that going or if they revert back to the veterans.

In the pass game, Courtland Sutton has been productive as of late, but he will face a tough matchup in AJ Terrell. The Broncos don’t have a true WR2 as they have rotated guys in and out for the vast majority of the games. In fact, over the last 7 weeks, no Broncos WR has played more than 70% of the snaps. The highest was Devaughn Vele last week at 66%.

On defense is where the Broncos have really shined. Pat Surtain is a shutdown corner but the entire defensive unit has been solid. They are currently the 6th overall ranked defense per DVOA at FTN Fantasy.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Broncos Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Falcons vs. Broncos odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Broncos Predictions: Atlanta +2 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

I know they are on the road here, but the Atlanta Falcons should win this game. They are the better team on paper with guys getting healthy at the right time. And the Broncos really have only beaten up on bad teams with wins against the Panthers, Raiders, Jets, Saints, and Buccaneers. None of those teams have a winning record.

Both teams have great top corners that will make life difficult for Courtland Sutton and Drake London. But the compliment of ancillary weapons with Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts is simply better than the rotation of guys the Broncos wheel out there.

Just last week when Pat Surtain took away DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce stepped up with 13 targets. I think Kirk Cousins can find these other guys and cover the 2-point spread.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Broncos Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

ATL Falcons

DEN Broncos

 

 

 

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