Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 18, Sunday 1/5
You could say the Denver Broncos are catching a “lucky break” here. The Kansas City Chiefs have the top seed locked up and will be resting their starters. But that’s discounting the work the Broncos did to put themselves in the position that THEY are in. They have earned the right to control their own destiny.
If the Broncos win, they are in the playoffs. If they lose, that opens up the door for the Cincinnati Bengals or the Miami Dolphins to make it. And they can complain all they want but the truth is that the Broncos put themselves in a better position. Let’s did into the narratives involved in our Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions for Week 18 to see if they can close it out.
Even if you just want to see the Chiefs vs. Broncos odds and have Chiefs vs. Broncos picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!
Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions For NFL Week 18, Sunday Night Football
This one hasn’t been much of a “rivalry” during the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs have won 18 of the last 19. The Broncos did end a 17 game losing streak though by beating the Chiefs 24-9 last year. And, as we know by now, the Chiefs will be resting starters while the Broncos are must win. So the tables have turned.
The Chiefs arrived in the position they are in with the top seed locked up by winning every game but one. Their lone loss came to the Buffalo Bills 30-21 in November. That may be a blessing for the Broncos as perhaps they Chiefs would be chasing an undefeated season otherwise.
The Broncos did enough early on to put themselves in playoff contention, especially by winning four straight games against the Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and Colts. They ended up in the position they are in where they might miss the playoffs by dropping their last two crucial games go the Chargers and the Bengals. But they still control their own destiny.
Kansas City Chiefs: Resting Starters
This section doesn’t really need a huge write-up here. The Kansas City Chiefs have the top seed so they are choosing to rest a lot of their star players - especially where they have depth. It’s also a great opportunity for a tune up game for guys like Carson Wentz, Noah Gray, and Carson Steele to make sure they are ready to go if an injury thrusts them into a starting spot. So the players who are active aren’t going to be “taking it easy”.
Denver Broncos: Win and In
Many expected a bridge year of sorts for the Denver Broncos. And they clearly have some holes still. For instance, after Courtland Sutton, they haven’t had a clear cut WR2. Marvin Mims has come on strong as of late but he still has not cracked a 50% snap share all season. The rotation at running back also gives off a feeling that their backfield of the future has not been settled.
On defense, however, the Broncos have been great. FTN Fantasy’s DVOA statistic ranks then 6th against the pass and 2nd against the run which has them sitting squarely within the top 5 overall. They’ll be facing the Chiefs backups which should make light work for this week.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos -10.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (+400) vs. Denver Broncos (-550)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 40 (-110) vs. Under 40 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
This is by no means an insult to the Denver Broncos. I think they win this game without question. It’s more a testament to the game flow that some of these games can take on.
Carson Wentz is not slouch. And he can absolutely run a vanilla offense in an Andy Reid system, even if it’s with backups. With backups last year in the final game for the Rams he scored 3 touchdowns. I don’t expect the Chiefs to come out and win the game but I expect them to be able to move the ball to some degree.
With a 10.5 spread, you need the Broncos to absolutely blow out the Chiefs here. I wouldn’t put it past Carson Wentz to keep this game entertaining. Nor would I blame Sean Payton for taking his foot off the gas and protecting his own guys if it’s not. A 9-or-10 point win is still a pretty decisive, two score win. So I wouldn’t be shocked if this is just a low-scoring affair where the final score doesn’t really reflect that it was never in doubt for Denver.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
KC Chiefs
- QB Patrick Mahomes - Rest
- DT Chris Jones - Rest
- TE Travis Kelce - Rest
- CB Trent McDuffie - Rest
- LB Nick Bolton - Rest
- RB Kareem Hunt - Rest
- DE George Karlaftis - Rest
- S Justin Reid - Rest
- LB Drue Tranquill - Rest
- RB Isiah Pacheco - Rest
- RT Jawaan Taylor - Rest
- WR Mecole Hardman - Out
- CB Jaylen Watson - Out
DEN Broncos
- OT Frank Crum - Out
- RB Tyler Badie - Questionable
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Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.