Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Odds: AFC Conference Championship

They meet again. This will now be the fourth time that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will face off in the NFL playoffs. And the eighth time they have played each other in general. I know they don’t actually go one on one here - they play against the opposing defense. But it’s still a fun narrative.
And that’s not the only narrative at play. The Chiefs are attempting to go back to back to back in the Super Bowl. While the Bills fans, who once saw four consecutive Super Bowl losses, are hoping to end their curse. We’ll take those narratives, the stats, and the injuries into account for our Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Conference Championship round predictions!
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Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions For NFL Division Round Sunday
As I mentioned, these quarterbacks have squared off eight times. In the regular season, Josh Allen has a 4-1 record against Mahomes. But the Chiefs have won all three playoff games which is obviously what matters most. This is a big one for Allen to get the monkey off of his back.
The Bills have now won 13 of their last 14 with their lone loss coming to the Los Angeles Rams, 44-42. The Chiefs only have two losses on the season, though it’s really just one loss if you exclude the Week 18 game vs. DEN when they rested their starters. That lone loss, however, came to this Buffalo Bills team 30-21 in November.
Buffalo Bills: A More Balanced Approach
The Bills for years leaned heavily on Stefon Diggs to carry the workload. He would routinely have 160+ targets and 60-70 first downs. This year, they spread the ball around for more with tremendous results. Josh Allen ended up being the only All Pro player on this team - which is how they drew it up. Khalil Shakir has been the leading receiver with a conservative 821 yards and 4 touchdowns.
On defense the Bills have been rock solid. FTN Fantasy’s DVOA stat has them graded as the 11th best defense in the league when adjusting for strength of schedule. They got a boost down the stretch as stud linebacker Matt Milano returned at just the right time to contribute.
Kansas City Chiefs: Taking The Easy Road
It might not be fair to call it “the easy road” as they both earned it and beat some tough teams. But there’s no arguing that the road that they did earn in the playoffs has been easy. The opted to rest their starters for Week 18 before a Wild Card bye, effectively giving them two weeks off. Then they had a home game against the lowest seeded team to advance where they dispatched the Texans in the divisional round. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce look as sharp as ever.
In recent years the Kansas City Chiefs have transformed from a lopsided offensive team to a balanced organization. That’s in large part to pass-rushers like Chris Jones and George Karlaftis as well as star corner Trent McDuffie. Not everything falls on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes these days.
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Buffalo Bills +2 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110)
- Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+130)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 48.5 (-110) vs. Under 48.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Chiefs: Matt Milano Over 5.5 Combined Tackles (-118 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Some folks might be hesitant with this one. Matt Milano has not had more than five combined tackles once this season. But we have to consider the context from a couple different points of view.
First, Milano was hurt for the vast majority of the year. Upon his return he was not thrown back into a full-time role in every game. He only played 58%of the snaps in the Lions game and 56% in the Jets game, for instance. In the two playoff games he has now played 81% and 86% of the snaps.
One of his main jobs in this defense is covering tight ends. And he’s pretty darn good at it. So he should spend a good amount of the day keeping an eye on Travis Kelce. We normally would be the props on Travis Kelce receptions (and it’s still not a bad play) but they are set high at 6.5 (-118). What we are going to do here is bet on Milano to be there to take him down for a number of those plays on top of being an asset in the run stopping game. Matt Milano should be plenty busy this weekend. Especially with safety Taylor Rapp out.
Bills vs. Chiefs Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
BUF Bills
- S Taylor Rapp - Out
- LB Baylon Spector - Questionable
- CB Christian Benford - Questionable
KC Chiefs
- N/A
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Player News
Ryan Ramczyk retired after eight seasons in the NFL.
Ramczyk served as a stalwart member of the Saints’ offensive line from 2017-2023, battling through deteriorating cartilage in his knee. He was sidelined by the issue for the full 2024 season. Ramczyk’s NFL accolades include a spot on the 2017 PFWA All-Rookie Team, two second-team All-Pro nods (2018 and 2020) and one first-team All-Pro (2019) spot.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery is a player that “teams like a lot more than the media knows.”
Rapoport suggests that Ersery could make his way into the late first round, connecting him with the tackle-needy Chiefs. Ersery performed more consistently as a run-blocker than as a blindside pass protector over the last two seasons, but notably allowed just a 3.0 percent quarterback pressure rate last year, the 10th-lowest among Power Five left tackles with at least 400 pass-protection snaps.
Beat reporter Scott Bair reports that Bears DC Dennis Allen asked slot CB Kyler Gordon to learn a second position, either on the perimeter or at safety.
The Bears’ previous coaching staff spent two seasons trying this experiment before allowing Gordon to blossom in a full-time slot- and box-coverage role last season. Perhaps, Allen can succeed where others have failed. His intent is to “find some more playing time” for Gordon, which is understandable given Gordon’s significant on-field impact last year.
Bills signed CB Tre’Davious White, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year, $6.8 million contract.
White, now 30 years old, returns to the team that drafted him in the 2017 NFL Draft’s first round. White was a force to be reckoned with early in his career, but a 2021 ACL tear and a 2023 Achilles tendon rupture have reduced his play quality. White will now compete for the Bills’ No. 2 perimeter role.
Bills waived TE Armani Rogers.
This is unfortunate. Rogers recently ruptured his Achilles tendon for the second time in three years. He showed promise as a 2022 rookie, earning a 65.3 PFF receiving grade and a 68.0 PFF run-blocking grade, but the injuries are taking their toll. The Bills also released DT Branson Deen.
Titans waived OT Nicholas Petit-Frere.
The team signed C Sam Mustipher and OT Oli Udoh in corresponding moves. Petit-Frere failed to meet expectations after the Titans spent a third-round pick on him in 2022, allowing 35-plus quarterback pressures in 2-of-3 NFL seasons.