NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 16 Thursday Night Football Featuring Rams vs Saints
Week 16 is upon us, and we’ve got another fun game in store for us tonight between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams! Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams have been electric this year, but can they keep it up against the Saints? We’ll have to see if New Orleans defense can control this dynamic offense and if the Rams can stop Alvin Kamara.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We cleaned house Monday night, and we’re looking to keep that streak going tonight. Let’s dive into some of my favorite picks to today’s slate.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
We have harped on Alontae Taylor’s coverage ability (or lack thereof) all season long, and we’re not going to stop now. Working out of the slot, he’s allowed 51 receptions on the season and is being targeted over 20% of the time. With a receiver as good as Cooper Kupp, he’s set up to feast against this subpar coverage. He’s had eight receptions the last two weeks and had six the week before, so he should continue this streak and have a great night.
Pick: Cooper Kupp more than 6.5 receptions (1.97x)
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has had a rough go of it this season due to injuries, but when he’s healthy, he has been able to put up some big games. He’s had five games of over 300 passing yards this season, and with Chris Olave expected to play, he has another weapon at his disposal. The Rams have also given up quite a few yards over the past few weeks, ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game over the past three matches with 256 yards. This game should be close, and with the running back depth a little lacking, expect Carr to throw plenty.
Derek Carr more than 233.5 passing yards (1.78x)
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Speaking of the rushing game, there isn’t really anyone to speak of in the New Orleans backfield outside of Alvin Kamara. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller are banged up, leaving Kamara to handle the bulk of the rushing work. He’s hit this mark in three of the last four games, and in the fourth, he still finished with 51, so I think the trend continues tonight. The Rams are decent against the run, only allowing 110 rushing yards per match, but with Kamara handling the bulk of the work, he should still have a great night.
Pick: Alvin Kamara more than 51.5 rushing yards (1.74x)
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Player News
ESPN’s Jordan Raanan expects Jaxson Dart to sit his entire rookie year if “all goes well.”
The problem with that otherwise sensible opinion, of course, is that it is extremely unlikely “all goes well” with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on a roster that found itself picking at No. 3 overall last month. If the Giants are genuinely serious about redshirting Dart for a year, it will be easier than most places because of the presence of two veteran quarterbacks instead of just one, but coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen both have their jobs on the line. That almost equals “break rookie glass.” Teams have become more amenable to sitting blue-chip rookie QBs in recent years, but we would be stunned if Dart fails to make 2025 starts.
Colts claimed DT Eric Johnson II off waivers from the Patriots.
A 2022 fifth-round pick of the Colts, Johnson spent two years in Indy before last year’s sojourn in Boston. Waived at final cuts last summer, Johnson was claimed by the Pats. He’s been a steady special teamer and rotational depth piece up front. Johnson’s Colts experience greatly enhances his 53-man roster odds, but his spot will be far from a given. He turns 27 in July.
NBC Sports’ Matt Maiocco reports that the 49ers and OT D.J. Humphries do not have a deal in place.
Humphries reported on his social media account a few weeks ago that he had agreed to a contract with the 49ers, but that does not appear to be the case. At least for now. Humphries tore his ACL at the end of the 2023 season and was released by the Cardinals. He spent most of the 2024 season rehabbing before signing with the Chiefs. He started at left tackle in Week 14 before hurting his hamstring and missing the rest of the season. He will continue to search for another opportunity.
Patriots DT Christian Barmore (blood clots) will be ready to play in Week 1.
Barmore was limited to just four games last season while battling blood clots. He told reporters on Thursday that he’s been cleared for all football activity and has been a full participant in the Patriots’ offseason workout program. He expects to be fully ready by Week 1.
Raiders hired Brandon Hunt as Vice President of Player Personnel
Hunt was most recently the senior director of scouting for the Philadelphia Eagles and spent the previous two seasons as their director of scouting. Before joining the Eagles, Hunt spent 12 seasons (2010-21) as the pro scouting coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
ESPN’s Seth Wickersham reports Caleb Williams considered forcing a pre-draft trade from the Bears before ultimately deciding he could win in Chicago.
In other words, he mulled pulling an Elway. “Chicago is the place quarterbacks go to die,” were the words of Caleb’s father Carl to ESPN’s Seth Wickersham. Williams reportedly desired a trade to the Vikings, but he changed his mind after touring the Bears’ facility. “I can do it for this team,” Caleb reportedly told his dad. “I’m going to go to the Bears.” Williams acknowledged any attempt to force a trade would require going scorched earth on the Bears and city of Chicago, a process he did not have the stomach for. There have been zero reports of Bears/Williams drama since he made his peace with the idea, even after former coach Matt Eberflus’ clown show 2024 mistakes. It’s an interesting story, but one firmly planted in the past.