NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 16 Thursday Night Football Featuring Rams vs Saints
Week 16 is upon us, and we’ve got another fun game in store for us tonight between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams! Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams have been electric this year, but can they keep it up against the Saints? We’ll have to see if New Orleans defense can control this dynamic offense and if the Rams can stop Alvin Kamara.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We cleaned house Monday night, and we’re looking to keep that streak going tonight. Let’s dive into some of my favorite picks to today’s slate.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
We have harped on Alontae Taylor’s coverage ability (or lack thereof) all season long, and we’re not going to stop now. Working out of the slot, he’s allowed 51 receptions on the season and is being targeted over 20% of the time. With a receiver as good as Cooper Kupp, he’s set up to feast against this subpar coverage. He’s had eight receptions the last two weeks and had six the week before, so he should continue this streak and have a great night.
Pick: Cooper Kupp more than 6.5 receptions (1.97x)
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has had a rough go of it this season due to injuries, but when he’s healthy, he has been able to put up some big games. He’s had five games of over 300 passing yards this season, and with Chris Olave expected to play, he has another weapon at his disposal. The Rams have also given up quite a few yards over the past few weeks, ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game over the past three matches with 256 yards. This game should be close, and with the running back depth a little lacking, expect Carr to throw plenty.
Derek Carr more than 233.5 passing yards (1.78x)
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Speaking of the rushing game, there isn’t really anyone to speak of in the New Orleans backfield outside of Alvin Kamara. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller are banged up, leaving Kamara to handle the bulk of the rushing work. He’s hit this mark in three of the last four games, and in the fourth, he still finished with 51, so I think the trend continues tonight. The Rams are decent against the run, only allowing 110 rushing yards per match, but with Kamara handling the bulk of the work, he should still have a great night.
Pick: Alvin Kamara more than 51.5 rushing yards (1.74x)
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Player News
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reports that Kyren Williams’ contract extension “could be worked out by the end of training camp,” but notes that “the Rams will not pay top-market money for a running back.”
Rodrigue believes that the two sides’ continued contract talk “is a good sign” for an early extension. “Williams is a team leader and one of the more productive at his position,” but “he doesn’t hit ‘home run’ explosives,” which hurts his negotiating power, particularly at a position considered low-value by some. Still, Williams’ overall productivity works in his favor. Rodrigue notes, “training camp is the usual timeline for such deals under this era of Rams leadership,” giving fantasy managers an expected timeline to follow.
Patriots LB Jahlani Tavai stayed in New England following June’s mandatory minicamp to rehab his calf injury “in hopes of being ready for the start of training camp.”
The Patriots’ first training camp practice is scheduled for July 23rd. This report fails to provide clarity on Tavai’s expected participation status, though ESPN’s Mike Reiss does list LBs Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens as Tavai’s “projected top competition” for the No. 2 inside linebacker job. Free agent signee, LB Robert Spillane, is locked into the No. 1 spot.
The NFLPA released a statement in support of Executive Director Lloyd Howell.
Howell came under scrutiny after it was revealed last week that he worked part-time as a paid consultant for The Carlyle Group, which is a private equity firm. On Sunday, the NFLPA released a statement that it rejects “attempts to mischaracterize the committee’s views or divide membership” regarding this news, while adding any reports of the NFLPA calling for Howell to step down are false. It would appear Howell, who was appointed to his position in 2023, will remain in his role for the upcoming season.
Browns RB Quinshon Judkins was charged with misdemeanor domestic battery in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Details around Judkins’ arrest continue to emerge. On Sunday, Sergeant David Soika of the shared that upon arriving at the scene where the reported crime took place, officers determined after speaking to the victim that a battery occurred, which led to the arrest of Judkins soon after. The rookie second-rounder remained in police custody overnight and is scheduled to have an initial hearing on Sunday. As ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio points out, Judkins is sure to face scrutiny from the NFL under the league’s Personal Conduct Policy, while Florio also notes that “the baseline punishment for a battery is six games,” which can vary based on other factors. Judkins has not yet signed his rookie deal, and will likely take less guaranteed money than he hoped for following his arrest, which could cause a trickle-down effect for the 29 other rookie second-rounders who have yet to sign their deal. Judkins was expected to compete for the Browns’ RB1 spot in training camp, and while he will still get a chance to do so, fantasy managers should remain open to the possibility of a suspension being handed down at some point this season. In any case, Jerome Ford rookie Dylan Sampson would both see slight boosts to their fantasy stocks if Judkins were to miss any time.
Browns RB Quinshon Judkins has been arrested and held on domestic violence charges in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Judkins was booked on Saturday and remains in custody as of this evening. ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi reports Judkins’ initial court appearance will come Sunday morning. The Browns have said they are “aware and gathering more details.” Judkins’ arrest comes on the eve of training camp, and gets his professional career off to the worst possible start. A lengthy stay on the commissioner’s exempt list would be all but guaranteed if the charges stick. A suspension would then follow if he were convicted or admitted guilt. The situation should be updated on Sunday.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Chargers second-round WR Tre Harris did not report with fellow rookies.
That effectively makes Harris a holdout, something that has become common practice for second-round players amidst ongoing negotiations regarding guaranteed money. 30 of the 32 second-round selections from the 2025 NFL Draft have yet to sign their rookie contracts, with Harris now the first official holdout after the Chargers’ rookie report date came and went. This appears to be nothing more than “just business,” but fantasy managers will want to track the ongoing behind-the-scenes saga unfolding this year.