NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 16 Thursday Night Football Featuring Rams vs Saints
Week 16 is upon us, and we’ve got another fun game in store for us tonight between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams! Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams have been electric this year, but can they keep it up against the Saints? We’ll have to see if New Orleans defense can control this dynamic offense and if the Rams can stop Alvin Kamara.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We cleaned house Monday night, and we’re looking to keep that streak going tonight. Let’s dive into some of my favorite picks to today’s slate.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
We have harped on Alontae Taylor’s coverage ability (or lack thereof) all season long, and we’re not going to stop now. Working out of the slot, he’s allowed 51 receptions on the season and is being targeted over 20% of the time. With a receiver as good as Cooper Kupp, he’s set up to feast against this subpar coverage. He’s had eight receptions the last two weeks and had six the week before, so he should continue this streak and have a great night.
Pick: Cooper Kupp more than 6.5 receptions (1.97x)
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr has had a rough go of it this season due to injuries, but when he’s healthy, he has been able to put up some big games. He’s had five games of over 300 passing yards this season, and with Chris Olave expected to play, he has another weapon at his disposal. The Rams have also given up quite a few yards over the past few weeks, ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game over the past three matches with 256 yards. This game should be close, and with the running back depth a little lacking, expect Carr to throw plenty.
Derek Carr more than 233.5 passing yards (1.78x)
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Speaking of the rushing game, there isn’t really anyone to speak of in the New Orleans backfield outside of Alvin Kamara. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller are banged up, leaving Kamara to handle the bulk of the rushing work. He’s hit this mark in three of the last four games, and in the fourth, he still finished with 51, so I think the trend continues tonight. The Rams are decent against the run, only allowing 110 rushing yards per match, but with Kamara handling the bulk of the work, he should still have a great night.
Pick: Alvin Kamara more than 51.5 rushing yards (1.74x)
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Player News
Free agent WR Chase Claypool revealed the severity of the toe injury he suffered in July 2024.
In a social media post, the 26-year-old receiver explains that he “tore a ligament and tendon” in his second toe on his left foot and has “been rehabbing, working out, and recovering everyday for the past year.” This explains his extended absence. Following the injury, Claypool was briefly placed on injured reserve in August 2024 before being released with an injury settlement. He is “back to being the strongest and fastest” he’s ever been and is “excited to step back out on the field.”
Free agent LB Jason Pierre-Paul hopes to sign with an NFL team, ideally the Giants, in “a full-circle moment.”
Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, “Pierre-Paul still believes he can help a team, that he can be a veteran closer.” The 36-year-old has continued training to remain NFL-ready despite failing to find a suitor for the 2024 season. He logged 22 defensive snaps, playing for both the Saints and Dolphins in 2023. His last sack occurred as a Raven, in a Wild Card Weekend loss to the Bengals in the prior season. Sitting at 94.5 career sacks, Pierre-Paul hopes to reach 100 as a part-time player in 2025.
The CFL’s Toronto Argonauts claimed Shedeur Sanders’ negotiating rights in case Sanders one day chooses to leave the NFL for the CFL.
There is no indication that Sanders is in contact with the Argonauts and we do not expect Sanders to leave the NFL for the CFL at this time. Every year in early July, just before NFL training camps begin, the CFL allows its teams to claim NFL players’ negotiating rights, on the off chance that the player is released or waived by his team and decides to pursue a career in Canada. Per the CFL’s Marshall Ferguson, “the CFL began releasing a few names here and there periodically, but now the full list is available for all to see from each of the nine teams.” Fans can rest assured that their high-profile, fifth-round rookie remains a Cleveland Brown.
Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore wants to play football in “the right situation” this season.
The 34-year-old veteran visited the Cowboys pre-draft but left without a contract. Gilmore is no longer an above-average starter, but he did force eight incompletions and record one interception last year. A playoff contender could benefit from signing Gilmore as an experienced option, but teams tend to not have high valuations on older cornerbacks.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport reports that Titans QB Cam Ward is adjusting to the NFL’s speed and field width while learning how to adjust protection against the blitz.
Ward is learning through trial and error, as many rookies do. The young quarterback is now aware that an open receiver in the NFL looks far different than it did in college, even when targeting a linebacker’s coverage. The NFL’s condensed field spacing has also reportedly required Ward to improve his awareness against the blitz. Per Davenport, Ward successfully showcased a lightbulb moment in this regard, which occurred “during team period when Ward recognized where the pressure was coming from and checked to a different protection to block it up.” Ward also notably signaled an audible to Calvin Ridley and connected with the veteran receiver for a touchdown. These are positive steps for a quarterback who currently profiles as a QB2 in re-draft formats.
Speaking to Rich Eisen about the Steelers’ contract talks with EDGE T.J. Watt, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said the “most likely” outcome is that the two sides agree to an extension that resets the market before the season opener.
Pelissero recently reported that the Steelers do not plan to trade Watt, and Watt’s record-setting goals are well known, so the most recent report makes sense. The team will do its best to ensure team-friendly outs exist later in the deal, but for now, Watt appears to be on track for a hefty payday sometime before September 7th. Pelissero states succinctly, Watt’s expected extension “is going to be north of Myles Garrett—it is going to be upwards of $40 million per year.”