NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 12 Sunday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!

After a big Thanksgiving Day slate and a Black Friday game, it may feel like Week 12 is well underway, but there’s plenty of action available for us on Sunday afternoon. Several of these games have low point totals or gigantic favorites (or both), so while there may be limited options for anytime touchdowns today, that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other selections available.
We’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even with a change at offensive coordinator with the departure of Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren should still be set up for a very big day. He’s averaging 6.16 yards per carry on the season, and in the past two weeks, he’s had over 100 rushing yards against some tougher run defenses. This week, the Steelers get the Cincinnati Bengals, and they have been inefficient overall in containing running backs this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA and giving up the second-most rushing yards per game at 131.8. We know that Warren will likely still be splitting carries with fellow running back Najee Harris, but if he can reach anywhere close to his season yards per carry average, he should reach this mark early on in the game.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 48.5 rushing yards (1.77x)
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
While the New York Jets were able to contain Kincaid last week, holding him to just 46 yards, since Week 8, Kincaid has reached this mark or over in every other game. He also gets a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles and their exploitable secondary, which currently ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end position. Yes, they were able to contain Travis Kelce last week, but there were some drops and other miscues that helped them, and in a game that should be close for the duration of the match, we should expect a higher than average number of passes. Kincaid is one of the most reliable receiving options in Buffalo, with an 87.9% catch rate, so as long as he continues to see the targets, he should be able to reach this.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid more than 50.5 receiving yards (1.76x)
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman has largely flown under the radar this season, but he’s been very good everywhere it counts, including targets, receptions, and yardage. Coming off a bye, this Colts offense should be well-rested and ready to go, but aside from that, they also have a very good matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is decimated with injuries. Cornerback Jamel Dean has already been ruled out with fellow corner Carlton Davis remaining questionable, and if they were healthy, the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position on the year. It’s difficult to run on Tampa Bay, so I expect Garner Minshew to throw more than he normally does, and if Pittman sees a similar workload to what he’s seen all season long, this should be easy for him.
Pick: Michael Pittman more than 70.5 receiving yards (1.79x)
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Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.