NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 12 Sunday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!
After a big Thanksgiving Day slate and a Black Friday game, it may feel like Week 12 is well underway, but there’s plenty of action available for us on Sunday afternoon. Several of these games have low point totals or gigantic favorites (or both), so while there may be limited options for anytime touchdowns today, that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other selections available.
We’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even with a change at offensive coordinator with the departure of Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren should still be set up for a very big day. He’s averaging 6.16 yards per carry on the season, and in the past two weeks, he’s had over 100 rushing yards against some tougher run defenses. This week, the Steelers get the Cincinnati Bengals, and they have been inefficient overall in containing running backs this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA and giving up the second-most rushing yards per game at 131.8. We know that Warren will likely still be splitting carries with fellow running back Najee Harris, but if he can reach anywhere close to his season yards per carry average, he should reach this mark early on in the game.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 48.5 rushing yards (1.77x)
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
While the New York Jets were able to contain Kincaid last week, holding him to just 46 yards, since Week 8, Kincaid has reached this mark or over in every other game. He also gets a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles and their exploitable secondary, which currently ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end position. Yes, they were able to contain Travis Kelce last week, but there were some drops and other miscues that helped them, and in a game that should be close for the duration of the match, we should expect a higher than average number of passes. Kincaid is one of the most reliable receiving options in Buffalo, with an 87.9% catch rate, so as long as he continues to see the targets, he should be able to reach this.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid more than 50.5 receiving yards (1.76x)
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman has largely flown under the radar this season, but he’s been very good everywhere it counts, including targets, receptions, and yardage. Coming off a bye, this Colts offense should be well-rested and ready to go, but aside from that, they also have a very good matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is decimated with injuries. Cornerback Jamel Dean has already been ruled out with fellow corner Carlton Davis remaining questionable, and if they were healthy, the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position on the year. It’s difficult to run on Tampa Bay, so I expect Garner Minshew to throw more than he normally does, and if Pittman sees a similar workload to what he’s seen all season long, this should be easy for him.
Pick: Michael Pittman more than 70.5 receiving yards (1.79x)
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Player News
Free agent CB Stephon Gilmore wants to play football in “the right situation” this season.
The 34-year-old veteran visited the Cowboys pre-draft but left without a contract. Gilmore is no longer an above-average starter, but he did force eight incompletions and record one interception last year. A playoff contender could benefit from signing him as a No. 3 perimeter option, although Gilmore would likely ask to at least compete for the No. 2 role.
ESPN’s Turron Davenport reports that Titans QB Cam Ward is adjusting to the NFL’s speed and field width while learning how to adjust protection against the blitz.
Ward is learning through trial and error, as many rookies do. The young quarterback is now aware that an open receiver in the NFL looks far different than it did in college, even when targeting a linebacker’s coverage. The NFL’s condensed field spacing has also reportedly required Ward to improve his awareness against the blitz. Per Davenport, Ward successfully showcased a lightbulb moment in this regard, which occurred “during team period when Ward recognized where the pressure was coming from and checked to a different protection to block it up.” Ward also notably signaled an audible to Calvin Ridley and connected with the veteran receiver for a touchdown. These are positive steps for a quarterback who currently profiles as a QB2 in re-draft formats.
Speaking to Rich Eisen about the Steelers’ contract talks with EDGE T.J. Watt, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said the “most likely” outcome is that the two sides agree to an extension that resets the market before the season opener.
Pelissero recently reported that the Steelers do not plan to trade Watt, and Watt’s record-setting goals are well known, so the most recent report makes sense. The team will do its best to ensure team-friendly outs exist later in the deal, but for now, Watt appears to be on track for a hefty payday sometime before September 7th. Pelissero states succinctly, Watt’s expected extension “is going to be north of Myles Garrett—it is going to be upwards of $40 million per year.”
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said that there are going to be “decisions for everybody to make” if Tua Tagovailoa is unable to maintain good health this season.
Pelissero made the comments on the Rich Eisen Show today. Pelissero’s comments suggest an organizational reset of sorts could be in order if the worst case scenario plays out and Tagovailoa once again misses significant time. Head coach Mike McDaniel has been unable to keep his team competitive during Tagovailoa’s repeated injury-related absences, and ownership may be looking for an all-around fresh start. Pelissero notes that the Dolphins’ front office created financial flexibility for 2026 via its two recent trades with the Steelers.
Steelers signed GM Omar Khan to a three-year extension through 2028.
Khan was promoted to his current post in 2022. His successful draft picks include WR George Pickens, CB Joey Porter Jr., DT Keeanu Benton, LB Nick Herbig and C Zach Frazier. Khan acquired veterans WR DK Metcalf, TE Jonnu Smith and CB Jalen Ramsey via trade this offseason.
The Athletic’s Alec Lewis believes Vikings WR Tai Felton’s rookie season will be “spent mostly on special teams.”
Lewis notes that Felton could see some snaps on offense if Jordan Addison is suspended in relation to his pending DUI trial. Otherwise, it sounds like Jalen Nailor will be back as the team’s third receiver. Nailor didn’t earn many targets in the WR3 role last year but did cash in with six touchdowns and 414 yards on 28 grabs. Nailor is on the menu as a dart throw in deep best ball formats while the third-round rookie is only intriguing as a dynasty stash.