NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 12 Sunday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!
After a big Thanksgiving Day slate and a Black Friday game, it may feel like Week 12 is well underway, but there’s plenty of action available for us on Sunday afternoon. Several of these games have low point totals or gigantic favorites (or both), so while there may be limited options for anytime touchdowns today, that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other selections available.
We’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
Sleeper Fantasy Promo Code VAULT3 Gets New Users a 100% Deposit Match
New to Sleeper Picks? Right now new users who sign up will get a 100% deposit match up to $100 when they use code VAULT3. You must take advantage of this offer on your mobile device so you can download the Sleeper App and participate in their Picks contests.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even with a change at offensive coordinator with the departure of Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren should still be set up for a very big day. He’s averaging 6.16 yards per carry on the season, and in the past two weeks, he’s had over 100 rushing yards against some tougher run defenses. This week, the Steelers get the Cincinnati Bengals, and they have been inefficient overall in containing running backs this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA and giving up the second-most rushing yards per game at 131.8. We know that Warren will likely still be splitting carries with fellow running back Najee Harris, but if he can reach anywhere close to his season yards per carry average, he should reach this mark early on in the game.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 48.5 rushing yards (1.77x)
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
While the New York Jets were able to contain Kincaid last week, holding him to just 46 yards, since Week 8, Kincaid has reached this mark or over in every other game. He also gets a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles and their exploitable secondary, which currently ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end position. Yes, they were able to contain Travis Kelce last week, but there were some drops and other miscues that helped them, and in a game that should be close for the duration of the match, we should expect a higher than average number of passes. Kincaid is one of the most reliable receiving options in Buffalo, with an 87.9% catch rate, so as long as he continues to see the targets, he should be able to reach this.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid more than 50.5 receiving yards (1.76x)
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman has largely flown under the radar this season, but he’s been very good everywhere it counts, including targets, receptions, and yardage. Coming off a bye, this Colts offense should be well-rested and ready to go, but aside from that, they also have a very good matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is decimated with injuries. Cornerback Jamel Dean has already been ruled out with fellow corner Carlton Davis remaining questionable, and if they were healthy, the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position on the year. It’s difficult to run on Tampa Bay, so I expect Garner Minshew to throw more than he normally does, and if Pittman sees a similar workload to what he’s seen all season long, this should be easy for him.
Pick: Michael Pittman more than 70.5 receiving yards (1.79x)
Use Sleeper Promo Code Vault3 For a 100% Deposit Match Up to $100
Whether you want to use our Sleeper NFL Picks above or build your own card for tonight, make sure you take advantage of the latest offer from Sleeper where new users who sign up from their mobile device and use promo code Vault3 can earn a 100% deposit match up to $100. Don't miss this offer from Fantasy Alarm!
Player News
Colston Loveland caught 2-of-2 targets for 26 yards in the Bears’ preseason Week 2 game against the Bills.
Caleb Williams targeted Loveland via play action on the first play from scrimmage, completing the pass for an eight-yard gain. Williams’ second target went to Cole Kmet for a 29-yard gain, marking Kmet’s lone target. Later, Williams found Loveland wide open on a post route, connecting for an 18-yard gain. Fantasy managers should expect both tight ends to remain involved in the regular season, particularly early on. Loveland has already established himself as a first-team contributor, though, which puts a TE1 finish within his range of outcomes. He looked great on his two opportunities.
Jaguars acquired DT Khalen Saunders from the Saints.
The trade curiously comes hours after the two teams played each other in preseason Week 2. The 29-year-old Saunders is entering his seventh NFL season, coming off a year in which he totaled 27 tackles, 14 quarterback pressures and two sacks. The Jaguars bolstered their interior defensive line by bringing aboard DT Arik Armstead and signing three undrafted free agent DTs this offseason.
Caleb Williams completed 6-of-10 passes for 107 yards and one touchdown in the Bears’ preseason Week 2 game against the Bills.
Williams stood tall in the pocket and efficiently distributed the ball across his pass-catching corps. The Bills’ defense was mostly comprised of backups and rotational players, but it was a promising showing for a Bears offense that has received up-and-down reviews thus far.
Kendre Miller rushed six times for 21 yards in the Saints’ preseason Week 2 game against the Jaguars.
Miller played 5-of-5 snaps on the first drive, critically remaining on-field for third down. Ultimately, he and Cam Akers split first-team snaps 14-to-7, with Akers playing the remaining four third downs. Miller is astonishingly credited with five missed tackles forced. Akers rushed twice for two yards and caught 3-of-3 targets for 11 yards.
Spencer Rattler completed 18-of-24 passes for 199 yards, one touchdown and one interception and rushed three times for 19 yards and one two-point conversion in the Saints’ preseason Week 2 game against the Jaguars.
Rattler looked better than Tyler Shough did, though Rattler had the benefit of facing backups. The Saints are in an unenviable situation. Their rookie quarterback is failing to outplay their preferred backup. Fortunately, fantasy managers need not draft either player in re-draft formats.
Rashid Shaheed caught 3-of-3 targets for 15 yards in the Saints’ preseason Week 2 game against the Jaguars.
Shaheed played all 18 first-team reps alongside Tyler Shough and Chris Olave. He kicked inside, tying for a first-team-high seven snaps lined up in the slot. Adding quick-hitting layup routes from the slot will go a long way toward stabilizing Shaheed’s weekly scoring. His 13th-round PPR ADP makes for an easy click.