NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 12 Sunday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!

After a big Thanksgiving Day slate and a Black Friday game, it may feel like Week 12 is well underway, but there’s plenty of action available for us on Sunday afternoon. Several of these games have low point totals or gigantic favorites (or both), so while there may be limited options for anytime touchdowns today, that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other selections available.
We’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! So let’s get started and jump into some of my favorite Sleeper Picks for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Even with a change at offensive coordinator with the departure of Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren should still be set up for a very big day. He’s averaging 6.16 yards per carry on the season, and in the past two weeks, he’s had over 100 rushing yards against some tougher run defenses. This week, the Steelers get the Cincinnati Bengals, and they have been inefficient overall in containing running backs this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA and giving up the second-most rushing yards per game at 131.8. We know that Warren will likely still be splitting carries with fellow running back Najee Harris, but if he can reach anywhere close to his season yards per carry average, he should reach this mark early on in the game.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 48.5 rushing yards (1.77x)
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
While the New York Jets were able to contain Kincaid last week, holding him to just 46 yards, since Week 8, Kincaid has reached this mark or over in every other game. He also gets a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles and their exploitable secondary, which currently ranks dead last in DVOA against the tight end position. Yes, they were able to contain Travis Kelce last week, but there were some drops and other miscues that helped them, and in a game that should be close for the duration of the match, we should expect a higher than average number of passes. Kincaid is one of the most reliable receiving options in Buffalo, with an 87.9% catch rate, so as long as he continues to see the targets, he should be able to reach this.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid more than 50.5 receiving yards (1.76x)
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman has largely flown under the radar this season, but he’s been very good everywhere it counts, including targets, receptions, and yardage. Coming off a bye, this Colts offense should be well-rested and ready to go, but aside from that, they also have a very good matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is decimated with injuries. Cornerback Jamel Dean has already been ruled out with fellow corner Carlton Davis remaining questionable, and if they were healthy, the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position on the year. It’s difficult to run on Tampa Bay, so I expect Garner Minshew to throw more than he normally does, and if Pittman sees a similar workload to what he’s seen all season long, this should be easy for him.
Pick: Michael Pittman more than 70.5 receiving yards (1.79x)
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Player News
The Athletic’s Dan Duggan believes there were “no indications of any changes to Wan’Dale Robinson’s usage in the spring.”
Duggan noted Robinson’s frustrations with his role in 2024. Entering his fourth year, Robinson wants more opportunities on deep looks and more chances to win outside of the slot. Based on Duggan’s account of the early offseason practices, the Giants aren’t reading all that. Since entering the league in 2022, Robinson’s 5.4 average depth of target is dead last in the league among 105 qualified wideouts. He has been the definition of a PPR scam in New York and that won’t be changing in 2025. He remains a low-ceiling WR5 heading into a contract year.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reports that the NFLPA is appealing the ruling in regards to a potential collusion case regarding fully-guaranteed contracts.
Per Florio, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to pause everything in the post-ruling process indefinitely, but by choosing to file the appeal of the January 14 hearing, that’s no longer the case. It will now go forward, with a three-member appeals panel considering the ruling.
Rams RB coach Ron Gould told reporters that Kyren Williams has looked “more explosive” during the offseason.
Williams put together a solid season, but his 27 explosive rushes — runs for more than 10 yards — were tied for just 11th in the NFL last year. The 24-year-old has competition in the backfield with Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum in the fold, but if Williams can show the ability to break off more big carries on top of being one of the best short-yardage backs in the NFL, he should remain the bellcow for the Rams again in 2025.
Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post mentions Marvin Mims as a potential number two wide receiver option behind Courtland Sutton.
Mims has yet to break out in the NFL, but the 23-year-old took a big step forward last season, registering 39 catches on 52 targets for 503 receiving yards with six touchdowns. He has made the Pro Bowl twice as a return man and only played on 27 percent of the Broncos’ offensive snaps last season, so he will need to be given a larger role if he’s truly going to emerge in this offense. He led the team in catches of 40 yards or longer, so he can break a big play when given the chance, but he’ll need to beat out second-year receivers Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele if he’s going to see an uptick in snap share.
Bijan Robinson said the Falcons have “outlandish goals” for the team’s rushing production in 2025.
Robinson and the Falcons believe they can improve on the ground after finishing 2024 with the league’s tenth most rushing yards and ninth most rushing scores. They were seventh in rush EPA and first in rushing success rate. “If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we’d still make big-time plays. He’s that guy,” QB Michael Penix said of Robinson. “He’s the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there’s that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that’s him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we’re going to do it.” It’s the latest sign the Falcons will be a run-first team in 2025, as they were in the final month of 2024. That could mean more consistent usage for Tyler Allgeier, though Robinson will remain the workhorse back in Atlanta.
The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) is likely to miss “at least the first couple games of the regular season.”
The All-Pro tackle underwent knee surgery this week and will miss training camp and the preseason. He could be back sometime in September, though that seems optimistic right now. Bucs coaches said in June that Wirfs sitting out minicamp was strictly precautionary and that he would be ready for training camp. Instead, he will start the season on the PUP list, which will cost him at least four games. It’s an outsized loss for the Bucs offense. Pro Football Focus graded Wirfs as 2024’s top pass blocking offensive lineman. He allowed just one quarterback hit over 16 games. Wirfs’ absence will likely impact Baker Mayfield and the team’s pass catchers.