The NFL Week 4 Sunday slate is capped off with a fantastic AFC battle as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the Buffalo Bills. And what better way to finish off your weekend than to build your bankroll with our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football?

The Ravens and Bills are two of the top teams in the AFC conference and, as most NFL predictions go, they are two of the favorites to emerge as Super Bowl contenders. Buffalo has annihilated its last two opponents and is looking to remain as one of the league’s undefeated teams while the Ravens are a surprising 1-2 and were almost winless had their defense not barely hung on to the lead over the Cowboys last week. The Ravens are the home favorite by 2.5 points, both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are ready to lead their respective teams to victory and we’re ready to dive into the data and game flow before finalizing our NFL picks for this game.

 

 

 

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, 9/29

If we’re looking at the most recent historical data between these two teams for our NFL predictions, you’ll see the advantage tilting in Baltimore’s favor. The Ravens are 6-4 straight-up in their last 10 meetings and are also 6-4 against the spread in those games. Buffalo has won the last two game straight-up (1-1 ATS) but the Ravens are 4-1 as a home favorite over the Bills and 5-1 against the spread overall in their last six home games.

As for 2024 data, the 1-2 Ravens are also 1-2 against the spread and 0-1 ATS at home. The undefeated Bills find themselves 2-1 against the spread and 1-0 ATS on the road. Does that tell us enough to weigh in on our NFL picks here? No. Of course not. It’s also worth noting that these teams haven’t faced each other since 2022, so the Bills haven’t played against Todd Monken’s Baltimore offense yet. How much does that move the needle for our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football? Probably not a lot, but maybe some. Determining the game flow, though, that should help us. 

 

 

 

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Sunday, September 29th  

Before we finalize our NFL picks and set up our card for the NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, it’s important to establish how you think the game is going to go. The Bills opened up as a 1.5-point underdog and now we’re looking at 2.5-points which should tell you where the sharp money is landing right now. After watching the Bills tear apart their opponents and the Ravens’ near-collapse last week, how is the money landing on Baltimore? Probably because this is going to be Buffalo’s first big test of the season. The defenses for Arizona, Miami and Jacksonville don’t come close to what we should see from Baltimore. Save for Kyler Murray and Arizona, it’s not like they were taking on dominant offenses either.

The key for the Ravens is running the football. That’s why they got Derrick Henry in the first place, right? Buffalo’s run defense ranks eighth in DVOA and has allowed just 118.3 rushing yards per game, but each game they played, they were able to take out the opposition’s ground game. The game against Arizona turned into a second-half shootout and they beat up the Dolphins and Jaguars so badly, neither team was able to run the football. But the Ravens aren’t going to be pushed around like that, especially at home, and the Bills linebacker corps is now missing Terrel Bernard in addition to Matt Milano. The Ravens are going to hit them hard with Henry and that should open up the RPO work more for Lamar Jackson as well as the downfield passing.

As for Buffalo’s offense, it should be interesting to see which direction they go. They’ve utilized James Cook early, both on the ground and through the air. But the Ravens rank ninth in DVOA against the run, they’ve allowed just 50 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks and they rank 13th against running back pass-plays. As effective as Cook has been thus far, it looks like the Bills may have to take it to the air more and get their receiving corps involved early if they want to move the football.

The Ravens pass defense has some vulnerable spots we expect Buffalo to attack. The key is going to be where Kyle Hamilton is used most. If he serves as the slot-corner because Arthur Mallet is out, then Khalil Shakir will be blanketed while Dalton Kincaid tears up with Eddie Jackson or Trenton Simpson. If they put Hamilton on Kincaid and Jackson in the slot, Shakir’s speed and ability to add yards after the catch will shine. If they move Humphrey to the slot, then the deeper passing to Keon Coleman and/or Mack Hollins should open plenty of ways to attack, but when you’re continuously making adjustments around a defensive unit as versatile as that of the Ravens, it becomes difficult to get into a groove.

All that being said, you still never want to count out Allen or his ability to take over a game. But I think we’ve got a good idea of which way we want to go with our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football. 

 

 

 

Bills vs. Ravens Best Bet: Sunday, September 29th  

As you get ready to make your own NFL predictions and set up your own NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, you already have a good idea as to which direction we are headed with ours. Buffalo has been dominant this season, but haven’t faced an opponent of the Ravens’ caliber yet, both offensively and defensively. Derrick Henry is expected to be leaned on heavily here while Lamar Jackson handles the rest. If the defense can stifle the Buffalo ground game, they’ll force Allen into taking too much on himself and mistakes will happen. It should be a great game, but we’ll side with the home favorite. 

  • Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

The over is 3-0 in Ravens games this season and 2-1 in Bills games, but for primetime games here in 2024, the under is 8-4 overall and 3-0 for Sunday Night Football. We have two strong defenses and an expectation that the Ravens are going to try and control this game with Henry and running the football. That tends to keep the score down. Since we’re going to let the trend be our friend for primetime games and lean on the under, I’m actually going to try double-dipping on the under and sort of hedge against a late-game passing bonanza. 

  • Pick: First Half Under 21.5 (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Pick: Full Game Under 46.5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/29

  • Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-140 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • James Cook under 54.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
  • Isaiah Likely over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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