UPDATED: Tuesday, October 22 at 11:30am ET for Results

As promised, we’ve got a new look to my NFL Best Bets article and this is the first of what I expect to be a much-improved format for me to get my NFL betting picks to you. This article will be in a running blog format that will typically start on Wednesday each week and continue running straight through the Monday night game(s). It will stay atop my writer’s page once it comes out and I will announce any updates and added bets in the Fantasy Alarm Discord as well as on my social media accounts.

 

 

If you are wondering about the change and the reason behind it, I will point you towards either Friday’s Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy for those who subscribe or to Monday’s Weekly Bender on RTSports.com, which is free. You can get the full explanation over there, but the bottom-line is that I had deviated from my usual process and am getting back to what is best, not only for me, but for all of you who like to tail my NFL picks.

I will keep the write-ups brief for each game-bet as no one wants to read 1,000 words on why I like the Jaguars this week and I will simply keep a running list of player props. Also, please keep in mind, these bets I am listing are bets I am making. You are not going to see bets for every game and while I would like to add some action for the prime-time games, I will not be forcing it anymore. If I don’t like the game or the betting lines associated with it, I will not bet it. Do not ask me who I like on a Sunday night or Monday night game if you don’t see any bets listed, because the answer will be “no one.”

So, let’s not waste any more time. Let’s get to my NFL Week 7 Best Bets and Props.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, 10/20

Patriots vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Sunday, October 20th

I wrote this game up as an update to my NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool article and continue to stand by my reasoning. I said the other day, if the Jaguars are so bad, how in the world could they be favored by 5.5 points over anyone? Yes, the Patriots are bad but are they this bad? The answer is yes. Vegas is trying to bait you into taking the points and the line has even moved to six across most of the books. I say most because FanDuel is holding strong for us. If it moves, play the alt-spread so you stay at -5.5 and pay the extra juice. It won’t be bad.

 

 

Chiefs vs. 49ers Best Bet: Sunday, October 20th 

Unless you’re a Chiefs fan, everyone loves to hate on the Chiefs. That’s just what happens when you have one of the best coaches with one of the best offensive systems and the best quarterback in the game. Everyone hates a winner! But this is business, not personal and you simply cannot ignore how well Andy Reid has his team prepared, especially coming off a bye. We’re talking 21-4 coming off a bye week for Redi and Mahomes has actually never lost when coming off a bye and facing a team that played the previous week. He’s 5-0 in those games and now we’re getting points? The 49ers defense is not what it once was and they’re still contending with a few injuries here and there. You’ve heard me say, “let the trend be your friend,” and that’s exactly what we’re doing.

 

 

Seahawks vs. Falcons Best Bet: Sunday, October 20th 

This game opened at 49 and has systematically climbed to 51 via half-point increments throughout the week. We’ve been discussing the Seattle offense all season and I remain a big fan of Ryan Grubb’s scheme and how it has enhanced the passing attack. Geno Smith is throwing an average of 42 times for 296.3 passing yards per game this season. We also saw a nice look at what this Atlanta offense can do when it is firing on all cylinders. They’ve won three in a row and are averaging just over 33 points per game in that span. Typically, I’d be wary of all of this pushing towards the over, but after Friday’s practice reports and the updated NFL Injury report, we see both sides missing key components on defense. The Seahawks will be without both Riq Woolen and Tre Brown on the corners while the Falcons are missing linebackers Troy Andersen and Lorenzo Carter. Atlanta might also be without strong safety Justin Simmons who is questionable with a hamstring injury. I think this game will be as “fun” as we are expecting.  

 

 

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Monday Night Football, 10/21

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Best Bet: Monday, October 21st 

I’ll finalize this pick as soon as possible, but wanted to get the info out to you while setting your betting card for the week. I don’t love the extra hook on the spread and may consider buying it down, but for now we’ll look at the game as is. Todd Monken’s offense has really opened up Lamar Jackson as a passer and his 67-percent completion rate is right in-line with what we saw from him last season when he took home the MVP award. He also continues to run well and while the Bucs have Vita Vea clogging the middle, Jackson will still find the open rushing lanes he needs. The Bucs secondary is really where the lean towards the Ravens comes. They’re allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game and are now going to be without Jamel Dean who has been their best corner. UPDATE (10/21): Officially went from lean to pick with this one despite the emotional factor of the Bucs playing at home following the devastation of Hurricane Milton.

Chargers vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Monday, October 21st 

I'm simply not taking two road favorites on Monday Night Football, but there is more behind this pick than just that. Yes, the Chargers are back to full-strength on the offensive line and we do expect a run-heavy approach from them against a team that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and has allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season, but the Cardinals are going to be a desperate team and head coach Jonathan Gannon is not going to allow for poor play-calling from offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The Cardinals need this win to stay in contention in a suddenly wide open NFC West. If they don't get it here, they'll at least keep it within one.

Best NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets

 

 

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