NFL Week 2 Best Bets and Prop Bets
Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Best Bets and Prop Bets article. Last week I just posted my picks in the Fantasy Alarm Discord channel, but this week you get a full-blown article. Not sure there’s going to be much in the way of an actual article, but I will give you a few insights as to why I am betting the way I am betting this week. You can also catch me every Friday on the Bettor Sports Betting Show with Dan Servodidio. I give out a lot of my picks and leans there, but these are the final selections. Last week I went 9-1 between the show and the picks in Discord, so we are already playing with house money. That doesn’t mean anything with regard to how I bet. It is still early in the season and we still have a ton of data to collect. But it sure as heck feels good to start out a winner.
Let’s get to my picks for this week.
NFL Week 2 Best Bets
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills
The spread has stayed pretty consistent with the Bills favored by nine, but the other day it looked like some money was coming in on the Raiders and dropped it to 8.5. I was ready to bet it at nine anyway, so the fact that it popped back up doesn’t affect my thinking at all. If it starts to pup up to 9.5 or 10 then you may want to think it over, but as it is right now, I’m feeling good about a big home-game rebound for Josh Allen and company.
Pick: Bills -9 (-108)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year, the Chiefs not only saw a much bigger spread, but they also covered it with ease; both times. This year the Jaguars are getting a boatload more respect and rightfully so. Calvin Ridley gives Trevor Lawrence a bona fide No. 1 receiver and both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones serve as fantastic complements. The Chiefs defense gets a boost with Chris Jones back on the field, but their secondary is going to be heavily tested. I talked about this game on the Bettor Sports Betting Show, in that I like the Chiefs to win, but this extra half-point the Jags are getting in a potential shootout makes me awfully nervous when betting against the spread.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
Another one I’ve mentioned before as I am betting it according to the percentages. Teams do not play well in Denver this early in the season because they are not used to the altitude and their conditioning is not in mid-season form. Over the last 10 years, the Broncos are 11-6-3 against the spread at home in September and over the last five years, they are 4-3 ATS. I will give it the Raiders who won outright last week, but that’s because it’s a divisional game and they’re used to games in Denver. If the Broncos are just over .500 over the last five seasons and that far ahead over the last 10, I am going to put my faith in Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi and Russell Wilson and expect them to win and cover.
Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-110)
Favorite NFL Player Props:
- Josh Allen over 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
- James Cook over 67.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
- Mike Evans Anytime TD (+145)
- Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-105)
- Logan Thomas over 2.5 receptions (-120)
**all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.