NFL Week 14 is here and with it comes a whole new look at the Sunday slate of games. Hopefully you caught Friday's Bettor Sports Betting Show with me and Dan Servodidio as we discussed all of the plays you will read about below at length, but if you didn't and you learn better from listening rather than reading, you should definitely check it out. Over there you get a little more detail regarding football picks against the spread and how we're adjusting to where the public money seems to be. Not that you don't get that here, but sometimes I tend to gloss over some of the data because my football bets have a lot of narrative attached and I also like to take more of a contrarian look at most games. So let's not waste any more time. Let's get right to the Week 14 action.

 

 

NFL Week 14 Best Bets:

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

I've actually been talking about this match-up all week and continue to find myself eager to bet this game. Obviously, the players on the field matter most, but the way I look at this game, it's about Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi vs Brandon Staley and Kellen Moore. Lombardi was let go by the Chargers after serving as their offensive coordinator under Staley for two years and now he brings his offensive scheme to the other side. An offensive scheme that has really jelled on the field lately, as evidenced by the Broncos being 5-1 over their last six games. It's not that I dislike the Chargers offense under Moore, but without a stable receiving corps, they have been incredibly limited. Not to mention the fact that Austin Ekeler has been stuck in the mud in Moore's offense. This is where Lombardi shows the Chargers front office what his scheme can do against their subpar defense, in my opinion and I am 100-percent here for that. The Broncos may be 4-7-1 ATS this season, but they are 4-2 ATS over their last six while the Chargers, 5-7 ATS on the season, are just 1-3 ATS over their last four. Not only do I lean Denver, but I also think we see some points scored in this one.

Pick: Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105 BetMGM)

Pick: Over 44 (-110 BetMGM)

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

For me, this all comes down to what you believe with regard to Jake Browning. Did the Bengals suddenly strike gold with him during their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Monday night or was this simply a one-week wonder. I'm sure Bengals fans will hate me, but this is what I said while writing up Ja'Marr Chase in the NFL Week 14 DFS Playbook – “I have a sneaking suspicion that we are all being fish-hooked into using Browning this week based on what happened against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. A game with that high of a profile, and one that ravaged Survivor Pools like it did, stands out like a turd in a punchbowl and suddenly we're led to believe that a guy who went undrafted in in 2019 and has sat on practice squads up until this season is going to lead us to the Promised Land? Yeah, just like Joshua Dobbs, Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Heinicke, Tyrod Taylor, Bailey Zappe and Andy Dalton did. Solid initial efforts and then they pee down their leg when NFL defenses catch up to them the next week.” The spread is set up where you're paying  little more juice taking the Colts and the points, so unlike the above game where I was content to take the points being offered, I'm going for the plus-money odds here and just looking for the win.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts ML (+105 BetMGM)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

This is usually one of those games I don't typically bet because I just want to sit and enjoy the game as a fan, but so many people are down on Kansas City right now, that I have to jump into the fight and take a swing or two. First and foremost, the data is on my side here as the Bills are 4-8 against the spread this season while the Chiefs are 7-5 ATS. But for me it's about the Chiefs needing a BIG statement game this week after their loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Patrick Mahomes, with or without Isiah Pacheco on the field, is ready to put this entire team on his back and drops be damned, he's going to sling the rock and lead his team up and down the field all day long on this Buffalo defense. I'm not saying it's going to be a walk in the park as I expect the Bills offense to also do some damage, but when it comes down to these types of situations and everyone is crapping on the Kansas City pass-catchers, I'm ready to defend them and Mahomes with my own hard-earned money

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Favorite NFL Week 14 Player Props: