Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with a heated AFC East rivalry and we’re looking to cash in with our NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

With a full week’s worth of games in the books, we’ve been able to get a closer look at what teams are looking to do on the field which will only help us with our betting. Of course, making NFL picks for divisional games can always be challenging and this matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is no exception. 

Both teams walked away with victories from their first games and now they are looking to carry that momentum into this week. If you’re looking for NFL predictions to help you in your betting decisions, keep reading as we have plenty to break down.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 9/12

History is not on the Dolphins side of this rivalry as the Bills have won the last four-straight meetings and 11 of the last 12, dating back to 2018. Bills coach Sean McDermott has been around for at least that long, but when looking to make NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football, we only need to look at the matchups dating back to 2022 when Mike McDaniel took over as head coach of the Dolphins. 

Still, the advantage leans towards Buffalo in that case. Three of the last five games were decided by three points or less, but in the last two, the Bills won by seven in one game and 28 in the other. Making an NFL prediction here in a two-point game should be interesting.

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, September 12th

One of the more interesting comments we heard in the offseason came from Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel when he said he wanted the Dolphins to pass more this season. They had one of the most potent running back tandems in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane but when you have receiving weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you obviously want to get them going. And they did that this past week against Jacksonville, a team that had ranked well against the run the year before. When the dust settled on the Dolphins victory, Hill and Waddle combined for 12 catches for 239 yards, so we expect to see that continue. 

The Bills secondary lost some key personnel in the offseason, but they still managed to do a solid job and limited Kyler Murray to just 162 yards through the air. Most of the passing work came on underneath routes – the longest receptions were two catch-and-runs for James Conner and Emari Demercado – so we expect the Buffalo defense to be really tested here as no one, not even Marvin Harrison, has the speed and abilities of either Hill or Waddle. 

Expect the Dolphins to still try to establish the run. McDaniel’s offense is still predicated on the run setting up the pass, so don’t think this is just going to be some huck-it-chuck-it approach. They need to establish the run first or the Bills will simply fall back into coverage. Mostert and Achane should see more than the 16 combined cries they got last week unless the Bills jump out to an early and extended lead.

As for the Bills offensive approach, we should see more of the same this week as we did in their Week 1 contests against the Cardinals. Joe Brady’s offensive scheme also likes to use the run to set up the pass so we should continue to see a substantial workload for James Cook, who had 19 carries and three targets this past week. Miami did fine against Travus Etienne, but somehow, they let Tank Bigsby carve them up for 73 yards and a 6.1 YPC average. Not sure if NFL predictions should say maybe we see more from Ray Davis, but we won’t rule it out. Cook is still the lad and will be treated as such.

Once the rushing attack is established, we’ll see Brady’s patented underneath slants and crossing routes that hit the receivers in stride and allow for more yards after the catch. Allen did a good job spreading the ball around to a variety of pass-catchers, but the thing to take away is that the longest reception for eight of the 10 receivers lived in double-digits. If the Dolphins secondary allows too much separation, the Bills receivers could be off to the races at times. 

And then, of course, there’s the attempted containment of Josh Allen. He still takes a lot onto his own shoulders to carry the team, but it was incredibly successful last week against Arizona. We’ll just have to see if this injury to his non-throwing hand changes how often he tucks the football and runs. With all that being said, let’s dive into our NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Sunday, September 12th

Before diving into our NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football, we need to check in with some betting history between these two teams. The Bills may be 9-1 straight-up in their last 10 meetings against the Dolphins, they are just 5-4-1 against the spread. What does that do for our NFL picks? 

Not a whole heck of a lot. This game is going to come down to pass defense. The Dolphins want to unleash their speed into the secondary and the Bills will continue to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space. The spread is tight with the home team Dolphins favored by two, so we might want to look at the alt line, grab an extra half-point and take the Bills.

As I’ve looked through the analysis and my game breakdown, I continue to come back to the potential struggles of both secondaries. The over has cashed in three of the last five meetings between these two teams and while the 49 may seem a little high, they’ve combined for over 60 points in three of the last four meetings. It’s going to be a high-flying, fast-paced game and it’s tough to not see both squads putting up the points we need for another over to hit.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/12

*Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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And just like that, we’re already making NFL picks and NFL predictions for Week 2. What better way to get the week started by betting on a classic AFC East rivalry? If you want to jump into the action and make your NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football, go to BetMGM Sportsbook and use this link to sign up with promo code ALARM and get a spectacular, featured bonus

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