What a rollercoaster ride the 2024 NFL season has been. Absolute chaos for some, but we’ve been making the proper adjustments to what we’ve witnessed and it’s time to put that knowledge to work and jump into our NFL best bets for Week 4. 

 

 

 

Last week, we had another solid Sunday effort with our NFL picks. We went 2-2 on our player props, but we hit two key bets, calling for the under on a couple of game totals. We did struggle with one of our NFL predictions, but was the San Francisco 49ers second-half collapse a bad read on the game or was it just bad luck? I’m chalking it up to bad luck as Kyle Shanahan teams do not typically fall apart the way they did last week. Onwards and upwards.  

Let’s dive into the games, the Vegas odds and even the props for this Sunday and see what we like most for our NFL Best Bets for Week 4.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Week 4 Sunday, 9/29 

As this season rolls on and you continue to hear about how well the underdogs are doing and how scoring is down, it’s always important to focus on your read for the game. You might lose a bet, but how was your read for your NFL predictions? 

Over the years, I’ve seen some crazy things happen at the end of a game and trash a ton of NFL picks, but ‘ve always been of the mindset that if your bet is still winnable come the final minutes of the fourth quarter, chances are, your actual read on the game was the correct one.

When I set up the NFL Best Bets for Week 4, I’ve gone through each and every game from the coaching schemes to the injury report to the historical data when it is relevant to the match-up. I build my own game-flow narrative of what I expect and then look to see how the point-spreads and game totals match up to what I am thinking. 

If things look like they match up and the odds work for me, I will make the bet. If things don’t match-up, I take a deeper look to see why my opinions differ. Sometimes I’ll stand by my own read and use the game as one of my NFL picks. Sometimes, I look at it and just know to walk away and avoid it.

As you read through my NFL Best Bets for Week 4, you should do the same. If you agree with my NFL picks, then let’s go! If you don’t, dive in deeper, compare our NFL predictions and decide for yourself. But just know that, even if your bet doesn’t hit, your read on the game itself becomes most important for your long-term betting work.

Are you ready to dive into our NFL picks for Week 4?

 

 

 

NFL Week 4 Predictions: Sunday, September 29th 

As always, before I lay out my NFL best bets for Week 4, I feel it’s important to point you towards all of the great content we provide at Fantasy Alarm. Reading through it all will help you make the best possible choices.

Our weekly NFL Game Previews are always available, and you should be checking in with all of the great NFL content, whether it’s for season-long fantasy football, DFS or betting. All of it is going to be helpful. Gather the information and make an informed NFL prediction. 

Now let’s get to the action and see who we like for our NFL Best Bets for Week 4.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Falcons Best Bet: Sunday, September 29th   

In looking at the historical data, you might be surprised to see that, while the Saints are 7-3 straight-up against the Falcons, they are actually 4-6 against the spread in those games. Is that something we need to pay attention to, or is this new-look Saints offense good enough to toss away the losing record against the spread and take them on the road here? 

I think it is, especially when you see how Atlanta is allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (150.3) and rank just 22nd in DVOA against the run. The zone-blocking scheme Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison have installed is working beautifully and that has not only turned Alvin Kamar into a beast, but it has opened up the passing game for Derek Carr to be more efficient and work comfortably.

On the other side, as much as I love the personnel on the field, Atlanta is still trying to put it all together. Kirk Cousins is still working his way back from the Achilles, the offensive line hasn’t gelled to the point where Bijan Robinson is running wild and if it wasn’t for two big plays (and a penalty) given up by the Eagles mediocre secondary, Atlanta would be sitting here at 0-3 instead of 1-2. 

It’s a team I would be willing to bet on down the road, but for now, I’ll go with the better-coached team with an offense that already looks like a winner.

 

 

 

Vikings vs. Packers Best Bet: Sunday, September 29th 

I know all my Vikings fans are going to hate me for this pick, but this game is lining up to be one of those nice, contrarian plays for me. Everything's coming up for the Vikings lately, from the 3-0 start to the solid play of Sam Darnold to the unflappable defense to the revenge-game narrative for Minnesota running back Aaron Jones. 

The team ranks third in both total points and points per game right now while the Packers defense is allowing 328.3 total yards per game. Easy right? The public thinks so with 84-percent of the public money sitting on the Vikings getting 2.5 points.

The public money is also on the Saints to cover in their game, so why am I fading the public here but not there? Because I believe in the Saints offense more than I believe the Vikings will run the table this early in the year. 

Sam Darnold is due for a little regression, the Packers pass defense is rock solid and we also have the probable return of Jordan Love which immediately pushes them to be a bigger favorite once it gets announced and he gets clearance. I’ll keep following the practice reports for Love, but I’m probably still on Green Bay even if he doesn’t play. 

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Colts Best Bet: Sunday, September 29th 

The Steelers have been playing some hard-nosed, grind-it-out, low-scoring games thus far and most people are likely to expect the same this week. Their defense has been fantastic, ranking fourth overall in DVOA and limiting the opposition both on the ground and through the air. A struggling Anthony Richardson couldn’t possibly have success against them, right? 

Except for the fact that with T.J. Watt chasing Richardson around behind the line of scrimmage, it’s only going to cause him to run more. While he’s adding to his rushing totals, things are going to open up more for him to pass the ball. Maybe it’s not huge chucks downfield, but steady passing to move the chains is definitely doable.

On the other side, the Colts defense has been a hot mess and while Justin Fields hasn’t turned out the breakout game his supporters are hoping to see, this could be the week things click for him. His passing work improved last week, Najee Harris was removed from the injury report and the offense should be capable of putting up some points in this one. 

I’m not saying it’s going to be a barnburner and maybe the over hits on a late pick-6 by the Steelers defense, but 40 points seems low for two high-upside quarterbacks on teams who have yet to reach their offensive potential.   

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 9/29

 

 

 

How To Bet On NFL Week 4 At BetMGM Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,500 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

The only thing better than sitting down and watching a full Sunday of NFL games is winning some money while doing just that. 

We’ve locked in our NFL best bets for Week 4, and we just might be locking in a few more before Sunday, so get yourself ready by setting up at BetMGM Sportsbook and take advantage of this spectacular offer of up to $1,500 in bonus bets available. Get your NFL predictions ready and sign up at BetMGM today by using this link and entering BetMGM bonus code ALARM.

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Don’t miss out. Get in on the fun today and start placing those NFL best bets for Week 4 before Sunday’s games begin!