NFL DFS Week 15 Dart Board: Top Value Picks for DraftKings & Top Value Picks for FanDuel
Published: Dec 17, 2023
Updated: Sunday, Dec. 17 at 9:50am ET
How goes your NFL Week 15 DFS lineup builds? My cash game builds are all coming from this week's DFS Playbook, but as I construct GPP tournament lineups, I find myself looking for some deeper bargains and dart-throws so I can fit in guys like Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp. Not that I want to take too many dart-throws, but enough to make some of these lineups a bit more explosive. I will admit that I do like a number of the bargains I did have in the Playbook, but there are always more and some worthy of mention here.
If you're new to Fantasy Alarm, the DFS Dart Board is an add-on to the Playbook that I started several years ago. It came about when I was building GPP lineups and realized I needed more salary relief. As I dug through my notes to see who stood out the most among those players at a more affordable price, it hit me. When I put players in the Playbook, I am thinking primarily about cash lineup plays -- guys with a high floor who I could conceivably put into my core-group and build a lineup around. After those players, I would mix in a handful of guys who had boatloads of upside and were in soft match-ups, but I wasn’t paying as much attention to their salary as I should have. And that's where the Dart Board came into play.
Occasionally you may see a min-priced QB or TE in here, but more often than not, this space is reserved for running backs and wide receivers who are below $6,000 on FanDuel or $5,000 or lower on DraftKings. Also, while we call this a Dart Board, keep in mind that every player has been carefully researched. We're not up here picking players all willy-nilly, desperately hoping they hit. We're looking for the cheapest bargains possible who still have the strongest potential to give you at least a 3-5x return on what you pay.
All set? Great. Let's get to it and while you do, maybe give a listen to this week's NFL Week 15 DFS Show with me & Jon Impemba!
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
RB | Jerick McKinnon | KC @ NE Sun 1:00 | 5100 | 5500 |
There are very few players Patrick Mahomes trusts right now, but fortunately for us, McKinnon is one of them. Now the Patriots rank No. 1 in DVOA against the run so we aren't expecting a world of rushing work from him, but they rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and that is McKinnon's wheelhouse. If the defense is preoccupied by Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes will happily turn to his guy here and get the ball to him out in space. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
RB | Tyler Allgeier | ATL @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 4400 | 5700 |
The weather in Carolina is supposed to be horrendous with heavy rain throughout the entire game. That will put the ball into the hands of the Falcons ground game and while we expect Bijan Robinson to tear it up against a soft Panthers run D, Allgeier is still averaging almost 10 carries for 40 yards per game over his last five. He hasn't been inside th end zone since Week 9, but considering how bad this Panthers run defense is, that could very well change this week. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
RB | Chris Rodriguez | WAS @ LA Sun 4:05 | 4500 | 4700 |
With Brian Robinson out for this game Rodriguez should see an increased role behind Antonio Gibson. He profiles as more of a bruising back than Gibson so he should see work near the goal line and in short-yardage situations. The Rams are allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, so if Rodriguez is able to get carries in this game, he just might give you that salary-saving value you need. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | DeMario Douglas | KC @ NE Sun 1:00 | 3900 | 5900 |
When not concussed, Douglass was averaging eight targets per game over his last four and should continue as the Patriots number one receiver. Because Bailey Zappe is his quarterback and we still have trouble trusting in this Pats offense, he's a GPP dart-throw for me. However, if we see in the DFS Ownership Percentages that he is projected at a super-high rate, we'll make the adjustment and add cash-game eligibility for him. Stay tuned for Sunday updates leading up to lineup lock. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
WR | John Metchie | HOU @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 3200 | 5300 |
If you read the DFS Playbook, then you already knew this was coming. With no Nico Collins and no Tank Dell, the Texans are going to need to rely on their receiving youth here against a soft Titans secondary. Metchie has seen both his snap count and target share increase over the last two weeks and he should be a featured target for Case Keenum who has been spending his practices throwing to Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson over the last several weeks in practices. If you're looking for a salary-saving one-off or maybe even to try out a crazy Texans stack, Metchie should be involved. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
WR | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 3000 | 4900 |
The analysis for Hutchinson isn't really all that different for that of John Metchie. He's seen an increase in both snaps and targets with all the injuries and actually out-snapped Metchie last week. He's a big-bodied receiver who should be leaned on for contested catches and don't be surprised to see him land a few targets inside the end zone, especially on some jump balls. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
WR | Rondale Moore | ATL @ CAR Sun 1:00 | 3400 | 5000 |
I'm also looking at Michael Wilson, but Moore probably profiles a little better as the primary slot receiver for the Cardinals. San Francisco actually ranks 17th in DVOA against the slot and once the Cardinals fall behind, you can expect a lot of throwing by Kyler Murray. Once the defense goes into prevent mode on big plays, Moore should start to rack up decent totals on the underneath targets. He's fine on both sites, but I prefer him on DK with its full-point PPR scoring. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | A.T. Perry | NYG @ NO Sun 1:00 | 3500 | 4700 |
People have asked me about Lynn Bowden's increased workload, but that came with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill all out. Now that Shaheed is back, we'll stay with Perry who should slot in as one of the top two receivers in this Saints offense. He's got the size and strength to handle contested catches but he also has the speed to stretch the field vertically. So long as Olave remains sidelined, even with Shaheed back, Perry should see a solid snap share and target percentage. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Demarcus Robinson | WAS @ LA Sun 4:05 | 3600 | 5600 |
LATE ADD: With news that Tutu Atwell will not play due to a concussion, Robinson moves into GPP territory again. Last week, after Atwell left the game, Robinson saw an 86% snap share and saw 10 targets, four of which were inside the red zone. If he gets into the end zone, he can be a fantastic pay-down in your Rams stack. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy |
Jerick McKinnon, RB | ||||
There are very few players Patrick Mahomes trusts right now, but fortunately for us, McKinnon is one of them. Now the Patriots rank No. 1 in DVOA against the run so we aren't expecting a world of rushing work from him, but they rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and that is McKinnon's wheelhouse. If the defense is preoccupied by Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes will happily turn to his guy here and get the ball to him out in space. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Tyler Allgeier, RB | ||||
The weather in Carolina is supposed to be horrendous with heavy rain throughout the entire game. That will put the ball into the hands of the Falcons ground game and while we expect Bijan Robinson to tear it up against a soft Panthers run D, Allgeier is still averaging almost 10 carries for 40 yards per game over his last five. He hasn't been inside th end zone since Week 9, but considering how bad this Panthers run defense is, that could very well change this week. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Chris Rodriguez, RB | ||||
With Brian Robinson out for this game Rodriguez should see an increased role behind Antonio Gibson. He profiles as more of a bruising back than Gibson so he should see work near the goal line and in short-yardage situations. The Rams are allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, so if Rodriguez is able to get carries in this game, he just might give you that salary-saving value you need. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
DeMario Douglas, WR | ||||
When not concussed, Douglass was averaging eight targets per game over his last four and should continue as the Patriots number one receiver. Because Bailey Zappe is his quarterback and we still have trouble trusting in this Pats offense, he's a GPP dart-throw for me. However, if we see in the DFS Ownership Percentages that he is projected at a super-high rate, we'll make the adjustment and add cash-game eligibility for him. Stay tuned for Sunday updates leading up to lineup lock. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
John Metchie, WR | ||||
If you read the DFS Playbook, then you already knew this was coming. With no Nico Collins and no Tank Dell, the Texans are going to need to rely on their receiving youth here against a soft Titans secondary. Metchie has seen both his snap count and target share increase over the last two weeks and he should be a featured target for Case Keenum who has been spending his practices throwing to Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson over the last several weeks in practices. If you're looking for a salary-saving one-off or maybe even to try out a crazy Texans stack, Metchie should be involved. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
The analysis for Hutchinson isn't really all that different for that of John Metchie. He's seen an increase in both snaps and targets with all the injuries and actually out-snapped Metchie last week. He's a big-bodied receiver who should be leaned on for contested catches and don't be surprised to see him land a few targets inside the end zone, especially on some jump balls. Game Type: GPP Weather: Mostly sunny | ||||
Rondale Moore, WR | ||||
I'm also looking at Michael Wilson, but Moore probably profiles a little better as the primary slot receiver for the Cardinals. San Francisco actually ranks 17th in DVOA against the slot and once the Cardinals fall behind, you can expect a lot of throwing by Kyler Murray. Once the defense goes into prevent mode on big plays, Moore should start to rack up decent totals on the underneath targets. He's fine on both sites, but I prefer him on DK with its full-point PPR scoring. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
A.T. Perry, WR | ||||
People have asked me about Lynn Bowden's increased workload, but that came with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill all out. Now that Shaheed is back, we'll stay with Perry who should slot in as one of the top two receivers in this Saints offense. He's got the size and strength to handle contested catches but he also has the speed to stretch the field vertically. So long as Olave remains sidelined, even with Shaheed back, Perry should see a solid snap share and target percentage. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
LATE ADD: With news that Tutu Atwell will not play due to a concussion, Robinson moves into GPP territory again. Last week, after Atwell left the game, Robinson saw an 86% snap share and saw 10 targets, four of which were inside the red zone. If he gets into the end zone, he can be a fantastic pay-down in your Rams stack. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy |