NFL DFS Week 12 Dart Board: Top Value Picks for DraftKings & Top Value Picks for FanDuel
Published: Nov 26, 2023
Updated: Sunday, Nov. 26 at 8:10am ET
At this point, you're probably wondering where you can find the most value for your NFL Week 12 DFS lineups. Maybe you're trying to build around Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce or Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown and are having a little difficulty? I can understand that. Usually we look to the NFL Injury Report and see if there is any value opening up and while we might be able to unearth a hidden gem or two, most of the reports we are getting involve Cooper Kupp actually being able to play, Justin Jefferson not returning to Monday Night Football and more sad-sack stories about Dallas Goedert's broken arm and the Bengals passing offense. But as I said, we do have a few spots where value is opening up, giving us the DFS bargains we need.
If you're new to Fantasy Alarm, the DFS Dart Board is an add-on to the Playbook that I started several years ago. It came about when I was building GPP lineups and realized I needed more salary relief. As I dug through my notes to see who stood out the most among those players at a more affordable price, it hit me. When I put players in the Playbook, I am thinking primarily about cash lineup plays -- guys with a high floor who I could conceivably put into my core-group and build a lineup around. After those players, I would mix in a handful of guys who had boatloads of upside and were in soft match-ups, but I wasn’t paying as much attention to their salary as I should have. And that's where the Dart Board came into play.
Occasionally you may see a min-priced QB or TE in here, but more often than not, this space is reserved for running backs and wide receivers who are below $6,000 on FanDuel or $5,000 or lower on DraftKings. Also, while we call this a Dart Board, keep in mind that every player has been carefully researched. We're not up here picking players all willy-nilly, desperately hoping they hit. We're looking for the cheapest bargains possible who still have the strongest potential to give you at least a 3-5x return on what you pay.
All set? Great. Let's get to it and while you do, maybe give a listen to this week's NFL Week 11 DFS Show with me & Jon Impemba!
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
RB | Chase Edmonds | TB @ IND Sun 1:00 | 4300 | 4800 |
UPDATED: This bargain play is likely dead right now with news that White is expected to be just fine and a full-go for today. If you're not buying it, and you are a max-lineup player, you can try this, but I'm not using Edmonds at all now and will be using White. Here is what the previous write-ip said: This could be the value play we've all been hoping for, but we will have to watch the Buccaneers' injury news to make sure. Adam Schefter reported that Rachaad White was added to the the team's injury report late Friday with a knee issue which means he probably hurt himself in practice. A late appearance on the injury report is never a good thing, so with this match-up against the Colts, we will immediately look at Edmonds. He's not the best running back to rely on, but if he is seeing the majority of snaps and touches out of this backfield, he could end up as a super-chalky pay-down. The Colts rank 24th in DVOA against the run, allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game, have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and just cut Shaq Leonard. We'll keep an eye on the DFS Ownership Projections to see if he is just a GPP play or if ownership is high enough to use him as a free square in cash. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | DeMario Douglas | NE @ NYG Sun 1:00 | 4400 | 6100 |
His price on FD stinks, but if you're a multi-lineup player and you want a pay-down in some DK GPP tournaments, there is nothing wrong with targeting against the Giants pass defense. There is obvious risk to this play though, so keep that in mind. We still don't know who the QB will be and we're also expecting heavy run volume from the Patriots this week. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Josh Downs | TB @ IND Sun 1:00 | 4800 | 5900 |
While Michael Pittman is going to be a lock for me in most of my lineups, I am not against throwing Downs in there as a cash game salary saver or as part of a Colts stack against a weak Tampa secondary. The Bucs actually rank dead-last in DVOA against slot receivers, so now that Downs has no injury designation, we expect him to return to his 75-percent snap share and usual dose of targets this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Robert Woods | JAC @ HOU Sun 1:00 | 4000 | 5300 |
Since returning from injury, Woods has returned to receive a 60-percent and then 75-percent snap share which has actually been at the expense of Tank Dell. You would think it was because Noah Brown was out, but obviously they prefer to use Woods in a variety of different ways. He's still seeing more than half his snaps out of the slot and the Jaguars are allowing roughly 54 receiving yards per game to them. While everyone is focused on Dell, keep looking at Woods as a pay down and maybe even pair him with Stroud and Collins in your tournament lineups. Everyone will be on Dell, so go the other way. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | A.T. Perry | NO @ ATL Sun 1:00 | 3200 | 4700 |
Chris Olave got the nod in the Playbook and there was a strong mention of Nico Collins who I also really like, but Perry could be that dart-throw we were all hoping for in this match-up against Atlanta. If you think the focus will be on Olave and Shaheed, then that should put some soft one-on-one coverage against Perry who has the speed to stretch the field vertically and has no problem going up on contested catches either. Deep sleeper but could definitely be worth it. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Justin Watson | KC @ LV Sun 4:25 | 3000 | 5100 |
A Dan Malin Special right here, and a chalky one at that. But at $3,000 Watson will be an automatic value play in several DFS lineups. The Chiefs ruled out Kadarius Toney for this matchup and they placed Mecole Hardman on IR. Pricing for this slate came out before the Monday Night Football game that saw Watson receive 11 targets coming off the bye week. There will still be plenty of work and momentum for Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. But at the bare minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he really doesn't need to do much against the Raiders to pay off his price tag. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
TE | Tanner Hudson | PIT @ CIN Sun 1:00 | 2700 | 4800 |
Over the last three weeks, Hudson has seen his snap share steadily increase and he's not received 16 targets over that span. With Jake Browning under center, we could see an increased workload here as the two have strong familiarity in practice and we all know how young, inexperienced quarterbacks love to lean on their tight ends. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy |
Chase Edmonds, RB | ||||
UPDATED: This bargain play is likely dead right now with news that White is expected to be just fine and a full-go for today. If you're not buying it, and you are a max-lineup player, you can try this, but I'm not using Edmonds at all now and will be using White. Here is what the previous write-ip said: This could be the value play we've all been hoping for, but we will have to watch the Buccaneers' injury news to make sure. Adam Schefter reported that Rachaad White was added to the the team's injury report late Friday with a knee issue which means he probably hurt himself in practice. A late appearance on the injury report is never a good thing, so with this match-up against the Colts, we will immediately look at Edmonds. He's not the best running back to rely on, but if he is seeing the majority of snaps and touches out of this backfield, he could end up as a super-chalky pay-down. The Colts rank 24th in DVOA against the run, allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game, have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and just cut Shaq Leonard. We'll keep an eye on the DFS Ownership Projections to see if he is just a GPP play or if ownership is high enough to use him as a free square in cash. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
DeMario Douglas, WR | ||||
His price on FD stinks, but if you're a multi-lineup player and you want a pay-down in some DK GPP tournaments, there is nothing wrong with targeting against the Giants pass defense. There is obvious risk to this play though, so keep that in mind. We still don't know who the QB will be and we're also expecting heavy run volume from the Patriots this week. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Josh Downs, WR | ||||
While Michael Pittman is going to be a lock for me in most of my lineups, I am not against throwing Downs in there as a cash game salary saver or as part of a Colts stack against a weak Tampa secondary. The Bucs actually rank dead-last in DVOA against slot receivers, so now that Downs has no injury designation, we expect him to return to his 75-percent snap share and usual dose of targets this week. Game Type: CASH & GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Robert Woods, WR | ||||
Since returning from injury, Woods has returned to receive a 60-percent and then 75-percent snap share which has actually been at the expense of Tank Dell. You would think it was because Noah Brown was out, but obviously they prefer to use Woods in a variety of different ways. He's still seeing more than half his snaps out of the slot and the Jaguars are allowing roughly 54 receiving yards per game to them. While everyone is focused on Dell, keep looking at Woods as a pay down and maybe even pair him with Stroud and Collins in your tournament lineups. Everyone will be on Dell, so go the other way. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
A.T. Perry, WR | ||||
Chris Olave got the nod in the Playbook and there was a strong mention of Nico Collins who I also really like, but Perry could be that dart-throw we were all hoping for in this match-up against Atlanta. If you think the focus will be on Olave and Shaheed, then that should put some soft one-on-one coverage against Perry who has the speed to stretch the field vertically and has no problem going up on contested catches either. Deep sleeper but could definitely be worth it. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Justin Watson, WR | ||||
A Dan Malin Special right here, and a chalky one at that. But at $3,000 Watson will be an automatic value play in several DFS lineups. The Chiefs ruled out Kadarius Toney for this matchup and they placed Mecole Hardman on IR. Pricing for this slate came out before the Monday Night Football game that saw Watson receive 11 targets coming off the bye week. There will still be plenty of work and momentum for Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. But at the bare minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he really doesn't need to do much against the Raiders to pay off his price tag. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
Tanner Hudson, TE | ||||
Over the last three weeks, Hudson has seen his snap share steadily increase and he's not received 16 targets over that span. With Jake Browning under center, we could see an increased workload here as the two have strong familiarity in practice and we all know how young, inexperienced quarterbacks love to lean on their tight ends. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy |