2023 NFL DFS Week 15 Contrarian Plays: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Week 15 of the NFL season is here and with it comes an 10-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is loaded with top tier talent and teams such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Travis Kelce. While its certainly OK to roster players figure that figure to be popular this week, the point of this article is to find some contrarian plays with similar upside that can help differentiate you in your GPP contests this week. So, with that said, let's look at some players projected to be less than 10% rostered this week.
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Top FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 15 Contrarian Plays
Joe Flacco, QB Cleveland Browns
Flacco has thrown over 40 pass attempts in each of his first two starts this season for the Browns and now here in Week 15 he has a home matchup against a Bears defense that certainly struggles on the defensive side of the football. Flacco may have to contend with some rain in this game and the total is only set at 37.5 but the volume of passing and matchup should set him up for another shot at a multi-touchdown performance at less than five-percent rostership.
Derrick Henry, RB Tennessee Titans
In his last five games against the Houston Texans Derrick Henry is averaging over 200 yards rushing and two touchdowns. No, that isn't a typo, Henry is averaging over 200 yards rushing per game over his last five games against the Texans. Yes, I understand that year-to-year things change but Henry is on a roll right now, totaling six rushing touchdowns over the past three weeks and now has the Texans matchup while his rostership sits at less than 10-percent? Sign me up!
Rashid Shaheed, WR New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave is not expected to play this week which means the returning Shaheed should be the WR1 for the Saints this week in their home matchup against the New York Giants. Yes, the Giants have been playing slightly better defense over the past few weeks, they are still not very good and we should figure to see Carr target Sheheed downfield on Sunday.
Logan Thomas, TE Washington Commanders
I don't really understand this one as Thomas has one of the best DvP matchups on the board in a game with one of the highest game totals. The Rams give up big performances to pass catching tight ends week-after-week which included Isaiah Likely last week against Baltimore and if this game is going to live up to the 50.5 game total expectations than you have to think Thomas will factor in somewhere.
Player News
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Steelers “have no intention of trading star pass rusher T.J. Watt.”
According to Pelissero, the team’s focus remains on extending Watt’s deal, which is set to expire at the end of this season. The veteran pass rusher has been working toward a new deal all offseason, and skipped mandatory minicamp while awaiting a new deal. Watt’s situation recently came back into the light when it was announced the Steelers would be giving Jalen Ramsey a $1.5 million raise in 2025 after acquiring him from the Dolphins, but it sounds like the hope is Watt and the Steelers will eventually figure things out. With training camp just weeks away, this issue only stands to worsen if a new deal isn’t worked out, which may result in Watt holding out until things are settled. Given the Steelers’ focus on improving it’s roster ahead of this season, it would only make sense that they satisfy their star player before camp opens up in mid-July.
Steelers beat writer Mark Kaboly said “What I have been told is the Steelers view Jonnu Smith as a TE, a slot WR, and a fullback.”
As expected, it appears the Steelers have already confirmed their intention to use Smith in a versatile way. During his 2023 breakout with the Falcons in Arthur Smith’s offense, Smith lined up 29 times in the backfield, 274 times as an inline tight end, and 268 times in the slot, per PFF. We would expect to see similar usage with the Steelers in 2025, which could relegate Pat Freiermuth to more of a traditional inline tight end role after he posted a career high 268 slot snaps last season. Before last season, Freiermuth had never lined up more than 180 times in the slot. The lack of receiving upside on Pittsburgh’s roster could keep both tight ends somewhat fantasy relevant this season, but Smith undoubtedly has the higher upside heading into training camp.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Dolphins “are now in conversations with multiple teams” about a trade for a TE.
With Jonnu Smith now in Pittsburgh, the Dolphins suddenly find themselves very thin at tight end. If the season started today, the starting job would likely come down to either Julian Hill or Pharaoh Brown, which is far from ideal. We would expect the Dolphins to find a new tight end in the near future, but where that comes from is anybody’s guess. An interesting veteran option could be Mark Andrews, who is entering the final year of his deal with the Ravens, and looked like a potential cap casualty earlier this offseason; while a younger option could be the Raiders’ Michael Mayer, who was selected No. 35 overall in 2023 only to lose his role to Brock Bowers the following season. This is all speculation for the time being, but we would expect some names to emerge as rumors of a potential trade ramp up.
Steelers acquired TE Jonnu Smith, CB Jalen Ramsey, and a 2027 seventh-round pick in exchange for S Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2027 fifth-round pick.
Smith will also sign a one-year, $12 million extension with the Steelers, per Schefter, which puts him under contract through the 2026 season. Smith broke out for 88-884-8 in his first and only season with the Dolphins, which came a year after he went for 50-582-3 with the Falcons under current Steelers OC Arthur Smith. There was mutual interest between the two sides to reunite in Pittsburgh once it became apparent that the Dolphins were unlikely to offer Smith the new extension he wanted following his breakout. His arrival to the Steel City makes for an interesting one from a fantasy perspective. For now, Pat Freiermuth remains on the roster and is only a year from signing a four-year, $48.4 million extension. The lack of talent in the Steelers’ passing game could create an environment where both tight ends co-exist, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers now have two tight ends who ranked top-12 in slot snaps last season. The departure from Miami likely means Smith’s fantasy stock will take a hit in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy offense, although his ability to lineup all over the formation should work to his advantage. It’s safe to assume Freiermuth’s stock takes a hit as well, but we would expect to see plenty of 12 personnel from the Steelers this season.
Dolphins acquired S Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Steelers in exchange for CB Jalen Ramsey.
Steelers acquired CB Jalen Ramsey from the Dolphins in exchange for S Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The Dolphins trading Ramsey was always a matter of when, not if. Now, the 30-year-old corner has a new home in Pittsburgh, where he will join veteran corner Darius Slay and the recently signed Aaron Rodgers. It was reported last week by Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer that the relationship between Ramsey and the Dolphins was “past the point of no return,” which now stands to benefit the Steelers, whose pass defense ranked 22nd in PFF coverage grading (58.0) and ranked 25th in passing yards allowed per game. Ramsey appeared in all 17 games for the Dolphins last season and earned a PFF coverage grade of 71.9 while forcing two interceptions and breaking up 11 passes. While he may have lost a bit of a step as he enters his 10th season, Ramsey remains a solid presence on the outside and should pair nicely with Joey Porter Jr.