NFL TNF Best Player Prop Picks: Steelers vs. Browns - Thursday, 11/7

For the second time in three weeks, Thursday Night Football features an AFC North rivalry. This time, it’s the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who sit at the bottom and top of the division, respectively. Even with that being the case, value can always be found, and we’ve done so with our NFL TNF player prop picks.
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Best NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks
When it comes to AFC North rivalries, especially one with the Steelers and Browns, one thing likely comes to mind - low scoring. These are two teams that have historically just wanted to grind out games en route to a victory, and frankly, that is likely what we’ll see on Thursday Night Football for Week 12.
That can make navigating through NFL TNF player prop picks tricky, as unders and defensive props are not generally what most fans have their eyes on. Of course, that’s what we’re here to help with, and we’ve found two spots worth targeting in terms of the NFL TNF player props markets.
Steelers vs. Browns Player Props: Jaylen Warren Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
This first of our NFL TNF player prop picks is one of those approaches that we’d bet most fans won’t be eyeing. That’s primarily due to the fact that Steelers RB Najee Harris has clearly been the bell cow for the team.
We’re fully aware of that, especially given that we targeted him in another recent Pittsburgh prime-time game against the New York Jets when he went off for 102 yards. So, we’re confident that we have a solid read on this team, and this time, we’re getting some great value with the other Steelers RB - Jaylen Warren.
He’s had injury concerns but was able to return this past Sunday. While he didn’t lead the team in rushing, he actually had a better yards-per-carry average than Harris at 4.6 per carry. That was against the best run defense in the NFL with Baltimore, and we just saw the Browns get torched by utility man Taysom Hill of the New Orleans Saints.
While Warren isn’t that type of ‘utility’ position, it’s clear that Cleveland has trouble containing those outside of the superstars. Hill, the pseudo-QB, has THREE rushing touchdowns against the Browns this past weekend, and truthfully, you could grab some great plus-money odds for Warren to do the same.
After all, Cleveland’s 14 rushing TDs allowed are tied for the fourth-most, and Warren had 129 yards and a touchdown (on just nine carries) the last time these teams met! With his type of efficiency, we’re starting our NFL TNF player prop picks with Jaylen Warren over 37.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Steelers vs. Browns Player Prop Bets: Nick Chubb Over 14.5 Carries (-120 at BetMGM)
We’re sticking with the RB position with our NFL TNF player props, but this time, it is indeed the bell cow for Cleveland. They had to wait several weeks to get RB Nick Chubb back from his knee injury that occurred last season, but he’s gotten his feet under him for a few weeks now.
Ever since the Ravens' loss to the Steelers, the primary talking point has been the lack of carries for Baltimore RB Derrick Henry. That’s despite him having been an Offensive Player of the Year and MVP candidate, so we’d expect Cleveland to learn from that mistake.
Especially when teams have much less time to prepare for these Thursday Night Football games, using any and everything they can from a recent result can be helpful. We’re also well aware of the fact that Pittsburgh indeed has a strong defense, which is why we’re sticking with carries rather than yardage for Chubb.
For example, when the Browns upset the Ravens a few weeks ago, Chubb had just 52 rushing yards but had 16 carries. He was injured when these teams last met, but the last time he was active for a home game against Pittsburgh, the Georgia product had a whopping 23 carries. We may not see that again, but we’re comfortable adding to our NFL TNF player prop picks with Nick Chubb over 14.5 carries (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Thursday Night Football Player Props At BetMGM Sportsbook
We want you to enjoy not just our favorite NFL TNF player prop picks, but also other popular NFL TNF player props markets at BetMGM Sportsbook:
Passing Yards:
- Russell Wilson: Over 174.5 (-115) vs. Under 174.5 (-115)
- Jameis Winston: Over 200.5 (-115) vs. Under 200.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Najee Harris: Over 64.5 (-115) vs. Under 64.5 (-115)
- Nick Chubb: Over 53.5 (-115) vs. Under 53.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards:
- George Pickens: Over 55.5 (-115) vs. Under 55.5 (-115)
- Calvin Austin: Over 15.5 (-115) vs. Under 15.5 (-115)
- Jerry Jeudy: Over 43.5 (-115) vs. Under 43.5 (-115)
- David Njoku: Over 42.5 (-115) vs. Under 42.5 (-115)
Anytime TD Scorer:
- Najee Harris: +110
- Nick Chubb: +170
- George Pickens: +195
- Jaylen Warren: +240
- Pat Freiermuth: +290
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Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.